One Year

Anniversary

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

One year ago this week the PGA Tour, which historically hasn't been a leader in anything, lead all the sporting world back into existence. Like a lot of you I had a little free time on my hands & had these grand visions of doing things...like teaching myself mandarin. Yea...I can probably go ahead & cancel my Rosetta Stone membership that I think I logged into 3 times. I'll tell you what though, it was so great to see full galleries last week, 'Mashed Potato's' be damned. Anyways, we go from the longest course ever played in tournament golf, to one of the shortest tracks on tour playing a touch over 7200 yards.  It's an invitational this year which is kind of weird, so only 121 players and the cut line moves back to T-65. As Pat mentioned on the pod, this is a classic Perry Maxwell design that is heavily treelined and very much a 2nd shot golf course. 

Weekly wind & weather look: It feels like the last 3 months wind & weather have played a large role in every event, and that will be no different here. Pretty standard #TexasWind this week. Thursday will be strong to quite strong, while Friday looks a little more sporadic with a late 'thunder-sprinkle' in the late afternoon/evening. 

(Image as always courtesy of DataGolf)  Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. As you can tell, 'relatively' speaking driving distance is way less important at Colonial (though it always matters to some degree), and strokes gained around the greens has way more 'relative' importance (though it's generally the least important on a week to week basis). However, it's very interesting that driving accuracy is also less predictive here than at your average tour stop.  Historically the bombers have skipped this event precisely because of the above. For example, we would shave about 1 full stroke off someone like Finau or Niemann's projections for the week because of the fit. For an event like we have here, if you see the short knockers getting extra ownership, don't be afraid to pivot because the adjustment isn't THAT big. Par 4 scoring takes on more importance this week with a par 70. Driving accuracy is much lower at Colonial than your average PGA tour stop (56%) as is the GIR % (64%) which helps to explain why around the green game gets a bump. If you're looking for more course history/fit I would recommend taking a look at Harbor Town, Waialae, & TPC Southwind.   

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Zalatoris vs. Im

Zalatoris -128 vs. Im +110

If the ownership projections are true, I believe both Zalatoris & Im are going to be under owned this week. Particularly in the case of Willy Z, his ball striking has been incredible all year, but especially the last 2 weeks. At the Byron Nelson he gained 10.9 strokes ball striking, and last week at the PGA he gained 12.2! If he just breaks even in the short game he's probably got a great shot at winning both of those events. While he's been inconsistent around the greens all year, he has demonstrated that he's routinely capable of gaining 1.5-3 strokes which is all he'll need to contend. I think you can already make the case that Willy is a top 5 ball striker on tour, which considering he doesn't even have a tour card yet is scary! Last week Sungjae put together his most complete event since the Wyndham last year, gaining strokes across the board. He was in line for a top 5 finish until a couple late bogeys knocked him down a very crowded leaderboard. Sungjae also played really well at this event last year in route to a 10th place finish, again gaining strokes across the board. He historically has played the tight, difficult courses well. His monster bermuda vs. every other grass type split is still present, but at 10%ish ownership I can live with that. 

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MATCHUP 2

Berger vs. Ancer

 Berger -108 vs. Ancer -108

The sportsbooks have a fairly aggressive price move on these 2 after just one week. Last week Berger was a -150 favorite over Ancer, now this week he's just a pickem. Berger's ownership should also take a big swing as he'll go from the highest owned player, to around 13%. That should especially catch your eye since he's the defending champ, and was uncharacteristically bad in the short game, losing strokes around the green & putting for the 1st time since the TOC. Abe was mostly a non-factor last week for the 1st 3 rounds, but was able to finish his Sunday round before the winds picked up to fire the low round of the day and backdoor a nice finish. He's been an absolute machine off the tee, gaining at least 3.4 strokes in 5 of his last 6 events. He's played here 3 times & made the cut each time. My only real concern with him continues to be his around the green game (lost strokes again last week), and while he did gain 3.1 strokes putting last week, has been extremely inconsistent all year.  

MATCHUP 3

Morikawa vs. Finau

Finau +111 vs. Morikawa -129

Well, last week I wrote about Colin averaging a ridiculous 7.1 strokes on approach shots his last 5 events, and all he did was gain 7.7 strokes at the PGA. Just like Willy Z, all it would have taken for Colin to defend his title was to break even putting. And he wasn't *that* bad, only losing 2.3 strokes. His ownership projections are all over the place, but at least on FNGC, he's currently #1, & it's hard not to argue that he shouldn't be. Throw in the fact that he was 1 bad putt away from winning last year & it wouldn't surprise me to see him get to 25% ownership. After a string of fairly poor finishes for Tony, he made a nice little run last week to also backdoor a top 10. He only gained 2.2 strokes ball striking last week, but gained a tidy 6.7 strokes in the short game. From a statistically standpoint it looks like his game is trying to evolve into a more complete player. He's gained strokes around the green in 8 of his last 9 events, he's gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 7, and has gained strokes off the tee in 8 of his last 9. While the ball striking has dropped recently, we know he has the upside to gain 10+ strokes in any one event. He also has sneaky good course history at Colonial. He's been well above field average in GIR's hit 4 out of 5 times, & 2 of those times he probably should have won the event. 

Other interesting lines:Gooch -124 vs. Davis +107Todd -142 vs. NeSmith +122Na -119 vs. Garcia +102Horschel -112 vs. Rose -104Kokrak -118 vs. Woodland +101Palmer -112 vs. Wallace -104Conners -136 vs. Niemann +116Reed -151 vs. Zalatoris +129Kirk -111 vs. Grillo -105Hoffman -137 vs. Kokrak +117JT -116 vs. Ancer -101

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost 5 strokes off the tee his last 2 events

• He's lost strokes around the green in 5 of his last 7 events

• He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult courses

• He's a H2H underdog against 2 guys cheaper than him

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week in the last 2 years

• He's been below 50% driving accuracy his last 2 events

• Over his last 10 events he's lost strokes putting in 5 of those

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 90th in the field in scrambling gained

• On short courses he loses total strokes against his baseline

• In at least moderately windy conditions he loses strokes against his baseline

• On par 70's he loses strokes against his baseline

At 18.6% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (5th highest) Emillano Grillo you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

What the hell happened to lightning bugs? I never see them anymore. Are they extinct? If so, that makes me sad. Too many damn kids I bet catching them and killing them in jars thinking a twig and some poked holes would keep them alive. 

Why can’t a turkey wrap be called a turkey burrito? It’s meat, cheese, and other stuff wrapped in a tortilla. That’s a burrito by my standards. All these diet people just came in an took over what a burrito is by calling it just a wrap to make themselves feel better I say. Screw that. 

I love Chinese food and will try it from almost anywhere for the first time. That said, if you have a shitty egg roll and use that awful yellow fried rice I'm instantly out and never coming back to your establishment. 

Well, it's almost summer time and that means lots of time in the sun. Speaking of the sun. I need to be better at protecting my eyes but wearing sunglasses gives me a headache. That makes me angry. If there's a way around this with some non headache giving special sunglass out there I would sure like to know. Thanks in advance. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Charles Schwab Invitational at classic Colonial Golf Club. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!