Chalk Bomb Week 7

Why finishing position is the most overrated stat in DFS golf

A chronic error I see in DFS golf analysis is over incorporating finishing position into decision making and forgetting about the only thing that truly matters, points.  I certainly see why it's easy to fall into this trap, as historical leader boards are everywhere, historical fantasy points scored are a little harder to find. In real golf finishing position is the ONLY thing that matters, but this past week at the Valspar was a really great example of just how overrated finishing position truly is. Take for example Mr. Cam Smith....terrible play right? He didn't even finish under par for the tournament (+1) and tied for 46th place, but do you know who was an even worse play?? The chalk of the week, Mr. Adam Hadwin, who on the surface looked to have crushed Cam on his way to a T-12! That's right, Cam Smith ended up outscoring Adam Hadwin last week by 7! DK points, even though he finished 34 spots back of him in the final standings. Using a similar example, take Mr. Sam Burns who had a great week even with his collapse at the end....he also finished T-12 right along side Adam Hadwin, but outscored him by a whopping 25.5 DK points! Most weeks that's the difference between a top 10 in a major GPP and not even finishing in the top 50! We hear it talked about all the time that birdies are king on DK (as is every other site) but for whatever reason it just seems to go in one ear & out the other. It's kind of like risk aversion in a sense when building lineups....its feels 'safer' to have Hadwin as opposed to a more volatile player like Cam Smith. But the edge you can leverage against a lot of players out there that do the 'box score hunting' is realizing it & putting it to work for you! Any finishing position point bonus outside of the top 10 is going to get you 6 points or less, 6 points! That's literally 2 extra birdies all week to make up the difference from 50th to 11th place, say it with me, birdies are KING. 

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So Chalky Make You Want To Slap Yo Momma

I went back & forth several times between four players for this week. Tiger was the obvious first choice....the situation this week is very similar to DJ at Riviera. He's in great form, and coming to a course that he has absolutely dominated at. Most places have his ownership at over 30%, which at a 5 figure price & that kind of ownership makes for a really juicy fade opportunity in GPP's. The field strength in this tournament is better than the Valspar in my opinion, especially at the top if Hideki really is healthy. Last week we had (auto-fade) Spieth, & Rory, both of which were/are in poor form. This week we get healthy Jason Day, Fleetwood, Noren, Hatton, Bubba, all who didnt play last week & all of which are in good form. 

The other guys I zeroed in on are basically the same player to me, & both are projected to have ownership of over 20%. They are both short(er) off the tee but very accurate, one has been really great tee to green with a god awful short game, the other has been good (not great) tee to green but has been putting really well (so you know where this is going). Taking a page out of what we learned while at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference, jet lag & heavy travel absolutely impacts performance. Doctors have found as much as a 10% performance different on as little as a 3 hour time delay which is just incredible. This weeks chalk bomb just played in India & flew all the way back around the world to play this week. That means he's spent AT LEAST 30 hours on a plane between leaving from the Honda to India, India back to Flordia. He played great here last year but he definitively (you read that right) didn't play in India the week before. He also happens to have a history of bermuda grass being his worst putting surface losing an average of -0.18 strokes, but last year at the API he gained almost 4 full strokes putting on the field. This week's biometrics chalk bomb is Mr. Emiliano Grillo! 

P.S. The other guy was Molinari, he's in much worse form this year compared to last, but his T2G game has been solid & he historically has done much better on bermuda compared to any other surface. 

P.P.S The vaping 'Barn Rat' was my ACTUAL #1 choice for the chalk bomb, see why in the ten facts. 

Dont be a blind squirrel chasing a nut, know these facts 

1. Stroked gained putting leaders from last years API, so guys that rode a hot (lucky) putter last year in order of strokes gained: 1. Leishman 2. Fitzpatrick 3. Hatton 4. Kisner 5. Snedeker 6. Cink 7. Fowler 8. Stenson (MC!) 9. Noren 10. Lovemark2. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last years API that gained LESS than 0.19 strokes putting per round, so guys that really hit it well & didnt score based on a hot putter: 1. Rory 2. Hadwin! (lost strokes & finished 6th, surprised he's not playing this week) 3. Glover 4. Hoffman 5. Molinari 6. Chappell (lost 2 strokes per round last year & still finished top 50) 7. Campbell 8. Stanley 9. HV3 10. Si Woo3. The Barn Rat (Kiradech) gained 12.7! total strokes putting at the 2015 API which is just absolutely absurd, then backed it up in 2016 at the API & gained 7.4 strokes putting on the field, both of which are the two highest strokes gained of any tournament he's played in with shotlink data on the PGA tour. He has one other tournament in which he's gained 6.9 strokes putting, then nothing else over 2.5...those two 6th place finishes are extremely deceiving. He was actually my 1st choice for the chalk bomb but just wasn't sure his ownership would be high enough. 4. Guys that gained strokes tee to green last week but lost strokes putting (in order of strokes gained t2g): 1. Fatrick! (he's usually a good putter) 2. Sean O'Hair 3. Adam Scott (shocker I know) 4. Secret Weapon, Keegan 2.0 Tom Hoge 5. Kokrak 6. Oosthuizen 7. List 8. Keegan (another shocker) 9. Stallings 10. Rory 5. Top 10 guys that have gained the most strokes putting on bermuda the last 50 rounds: 1. Gay 2. Day 3. Hay JK 3. Whee Kim 4. The Rat (but obv small sample) 5. Donald 6. Kiz 7. Harman 8. Leishman 9. TW 10. Rickie6. Bottom 10 (relevant) guys that have really struggled on bermuda last 50 rounds: 1. Stanley 2. P Rodgers 3. Keegan 4. Streelman 5. Bubba 6. Knox 7. Kokrak 8. Stallings 9. Chappell 10. Byeong Hun An7.  Top 10 strokes gained approach last 12 rounds: 1. Piercy 2. Hideki 3. Noren 4. Scott 5. TW 6. Molinari 7. Cink 8. Bradley 9. List 10. Lovemark 8. The highest rated guy in my model this week sub 7k, well its actually a tie. 1a. Harkins 1b. Wise9. Top 10 guys  in my favorite stat this week (Birdies, see intro) 1. Day 2. Hahn 3. Fleetwood 4. Grillo (sigh) 5. Bubba 6. Kokrak 7. Noren 8. Rose 9. Chappell 10. Stallings10. Big Names that lost strokes tee to green last week 1. Grace! 2. Ollie 3. Kuch 4. Fitzpatrick 5. Chez 6. Spieth! 7. Finau 8. Woodland 9. Duf 10. Byeong An

That's it boys & girls

Last week was once again really close to being a big week. That Tiger birdie/Reed bogey on 17/18 at the end cost me top 10's in several GPP's. The process feels really good, we're close friends. FWIW my one & done this week is Luke List.