Chalk Bomb Week 5

There are some really smart people out there (& how the USA kind of cheated to win the Ryder Cup)

This past weekend I had the pleasure of attending the MIT Sloan Sports & Analytics Conference in Boston. I got to meet a ton of awesome, really smart people in every major sport, and came away really inspired for not only how sports are leading the revolution in the real world application of data & analytics but how sports also help to shape & change our world for the better. A lot of times it will seem like the data & stats are trying to take the human element out of the equation, but the more I talked to people, & the more I listened to people way smarter than me talk, the more I realized that the data always tells a very human story. A couple golf related things that were shared with me at the conference really surprised me. Just like every other sport, their are guys that have really embraced analytics to help their game, & their are many PGA tour pros that still stick their heads in the sand. Speaking to someone in the know....he shared with me that you can pretty much tell which guys have embraced advanced data by how they manage the course. A perfect example is #10 at Riviera (which we obviously just played at so you can go back & watch the tape!)....its a 315 yard Par 4, a distance that tour pros would generally eat alive. BUT, the green is almost completely surrounded by deep bunkers, with a very narrow green that slopes from front to back. A poor tee shot is so penal that even on a 315 yard par 4, the data says 100% of tour pros should be laying up & trying to make birdie the old fashioned way. (I could totally see David going for it every time even though he shouldn't....me & Pat would layup, partially because we can only hit it 260). Another thing I learned is that the really sharp golfers are building their schedules around what courses suit their game the best (makes perfect sense, its why a lot of the bombers skip Harbour Town), but an equally important component is bio-metrics. One panel I went to was solely dedicated to how you can hack your biological clock to gain an edge, and all the crazy performance data of how/when/why your body peaks everyday. A beautiful example of this was last year when DJ played in Abu Dhabi then played in the Farmers the very next week on the other side of the world (he missed the cut after finishing 2nd in Abu Dhabi, thanks Obama). It was also really fascinating to learn about how the 2016 US Ryder Cup team (kind of) cheated on their way to victory last year. Ok, so they didnt actually cheat, but they brought in a couple data & analytics groups to analyze exactly how best to setup Hazeltine to maximize the US advantage...which if you didn't know, the home team captain gets to set the course up however they like each round. What they found was the US had a huge advantage in wedge play over the euro's, & so Captain DL3 set the course up every single day to really emphasize wedge play. It obviously worked out great as the US beat that ass 17-11 & cruised to an easy victory. 

Speaking of data & analytics groups....a lot of listeners ask us where we get our stats, data, Strokes Gained data, etc. from...Well, here ya go! Fantasy National Golf Club delivers literally everything we need to research each week. Click the FNGC Logo to join today if you haven't already! No seriously...if you haven't joined...you're behind.

Da Chalk Bomb

So last week was a really great example of the razors edge that we ride on in DFS golf...the razors edge that separates genius from idiot. Adam Scott was the only player in the top 15 last week to actually lose strokes putting. He made the cut on the number at +5 after the cut kept moving backwards all afternoon, then proceeded to play pretty well on the weekend. A big consideration when I'm weighing who should be the chalk bomb, is, 'does this guy have enough upside to get into the top ten given factors that I dont think other people are looking at?' Adam Scott was #1 in my course history model last week....but his putting had been so so bad that I just didnt think he had the current upside to truly justify his #1 spot, & elevated ownership, simple as that. Exact same case for Jason Dufner...its going to be hard for him to completely bomb because he's such a good cut maker, but you dont win GPP's with highly owned cut makers, which is the focus of this piece. For this week....ownership projections are all over the place, and with a limited field of 65 guys, 50 of those are all going to have ownership. Finding the right guy at the top is going to be critical this week as its really hard to separate the top 9 guys. Right now, not taking ownership into account, Rickie Fowler is my least favorite up top. If you believe like I do that this course is more of an approach course than a bombers course, he is ranking close to last in the top 9 in just about every major recent approach the green category. In this field he's 30th in strokes gained approach over his last 3 events, or if you want to break it down by GIR, he's only hitting 62.5% right now, Phil being the only other guy up top that has hit less greens recently.Speaking of Phil....his putter has been RED hot the last two months. He's in the top 5 of every major putting stat so far this year, & last year here at the WGC Mexico, he gained almost 5 full strokes on the field thru putting alone. It's extremely hard to maintain the pace that Phil is setting with his putter....only Jason Day has maintained a full season at his current strokes gained rate, which by the way, was the greatest putting season ever recorded. Did you know that last year at the WGC Mexico, Phil LOST strokes off the tee, and easily gained the least amount of strokes approaching the green of anyone in the top 10. As I already mentioned, Phil gained the 2nd most strokes putting last year of anyone in the field, & 3rd most around the greens. Now I can already hear you....but Ben! He's finished 5th, 2nd, 6th, his last 3 times out, how can you go against him??? All those finishes are largely putting driven, & unless Phil found the Jason Day pixie dust for how to sustain unsustainable good putting, its only a matter of time before this Icarus flies to close to the sun. 

10 Things you need to know so you dont make bad decisions like wearing a white belt with spiked hair!

1. 7 of the top 15 at last years WGC gained LESS THAN 0.15 strokes off the tee2.  Only TWO people finished in the top 30 at last years WGC that lost strokes approach the green (Kuchar & JB)....obviously they both putted very well.3. Last year Tommy Fleetwood & DJ gained a FULL stroke on the field Tee to Green every round last year, but you know who was 3rd in T2G? Ya boy Joost Luiten4. Fun fact from Sloan: The average PGA tour player from at least 150 yards out has to hit the ball, on average 75! yards further if hes hitting from the rough to have the same GIR from the fairway. 5. Tommy Fleetwood is really freaking good Tee to Green.....he almost won last week breaking even on putting, which is all its really ever going to take for him to compete. 6. Top 5 guys that played last week, playing this week who gained the most strokes approach the green: 1. JT 2. Rafa 3. Sergio 4. Fleetwood 5. Noren7. Kevin Chappell is my favorite pivot from the chalk field of Frittelli, Fish, Pieters, Casey, & Finau right above him. His field ranks from his last 3 times out. 8. The top 5 guys that have been pounding greens the last 6 weeks 1. Jorge Camillo 2. Ross Fisher 3. Justin Rose 4. Tyrrel Hatton 5. Bubba (6. Fleetwood)9. A balanced roster construction is hands down going to be the most popular play this week, if you can find some guys you really like sub 7200....its going to make DJ & JT far lesser owned than they should be.10. This is your weekly reminder that Tony Finau putts much better on Poa than he does on any other surface.  

Thats it Boys & Girls

Good luck this week...I almost always cut my exposures way back on no cut events & limited field events, the razors edge is extra thin on these weeks. May your screens be green!