Chalk Bomb week 4

True or false, Bill Haas has a better short game than Phil Mickelson. 

If you watch any real golf coverage, then you know the boys in the booth never let a 'Phils a short game wizard' moment pass by right before Phil hits any type of shot around the green. I feel like far to often we as fans, or more importantly DFS players get caught in the trap of labeling players a certain thing, & either never letting go of that sterotype, or not looking for yourself to see if Phil is in fact an elite around the greens guy.  I'm assuming most of you reading this play golf, so think about your own game for a second....it ebbs & flows right? Well its really not much different for tour pros. One week they are swinging it great, the next week they miss the cut by 10. Guys go from terrible putters to good putter all the time, and vica versa. Two weeks ago we did a deep dive on how the data shows that Jordan Spieth is no longer an 'elite' putter....but you know who is, thats right, Webb Simpson, the guy that used to use a long putter!So we just want to drive home two points today & will revisit it throughout the season. One, players evolve and change their games, for better or worse, all the time. If you read the Chalk Bomb last week hopefully we upped your exposure to guys like Finau & JT in the 10 facts. Last week they were our posterboys for why course history matters, but only to an extent, because they are both very clearly different players then they were 2 years plus ago. They have both upped their games to join the ranks of the elite golfers in the world. So when you look at their course history you kind of have to take it with a grain of salt because they were clearly lesser players 2 plus years ago and should naturally have worse history, on any course, then they both would now. Two, dont color a player into a corner as a certain 'type' of player, because odds are he wont be that same guy a year from now. Take a guy a like Jason Dufner....'ball striker' right? Well he also used to be an elite driver of the ball, currently he just breaks even off the tee...he used to gain strokes around the green now he loses strokes, and he used to be a very bad putter, but for the last year he has consistently gained strokes putting. I think these distinctions are important especially when we attempt to create & define who is a good course fit & who is not. FYI, the answer to the initial question of Phil vs Bill for short game dominance would go to....BILLY HAAS! Bill has consistently gained more strokes around the green than Phil dating back to the 2016 Wells Fargo! #BeleeDat

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Da Chalk Bomb

This weeks chalk bomb we're doing a little trend following trading! Normally we search for those 'mean reversion' trades like Pieters last week, but for da bomb this week the trend is strong and we need to ride it! The ownership projections are really tricky this week...we obviously trust Fansharesports.com for our primary ownership gauge. And judging by how evenly projected the top guys are, its going to create very chalky pockets in the 7-8k as it seems balanced lineups are going to be the most popular this week. That being said, this is probably going to be the most straight forward bomb ever. This guy is basically ranking close to dead last in every putting stat on Earth right now, and we actually have anecdotal evidence as well for the 'why.' He changed putters at the end of 2017, then changed back at the beginning of this season. This guy is an elite T2G guy, but when your putting as consistently poorly as this guy, I just dont know why you would take the risk of heavy ownership, even at a fair price point....Adam Scott, your da BOMB! As a bonus, two other guys that we considered here were Dufner & Graeme. We didnt choose Graeme because he actually hit the ball well last week so his little run wasn't due to crazy putting, but if he's over 20% he's an easy fade for me, he's not even close to the same player he used to be, so F his course history. Dufner would be my 2nd choice because of elevated ownership (20%+), dont love the price of 8600, and like we mentioned above, his driving has really gone downhill the last 6 months or so as has his scrambling, both of which you need to do well here. 

10 facts you need to 'see in your memories' for green screens (this is what Pat looks like when he sees his memories, listen to this weeks pod for reference) 

1. We got a late caddie insight that the greens are in fairly bad condition this week. Very little grass, in fact so little that they have painted the greens to make them look better. 2. The wind is obviously a big deal here. In fact 3 years ago, 15 of the top 24 priced guys missed the cut because of the extreme difference in am/pm draws. Be REALLY careful about judging course history this week, luck of the tee time draw has played a really big role in several years. 3. Top 5 guys from last years Honda that gained strokes T2G but lost strokes putting (aka got unlucky..in order of strokes gained) 1. Billy Ho 2. Vegas (dont forget he made a hole in one last year) 3. Lovemark 4. Lahiri 5. Scott4. Top 5 guys from last week that gained strokes T2G but lost strokes putting, again just looking for guys that hit the ball well but the putts didnt drop. 1. Graeme 2. Glover 3. Vaughn Taylor 4. Vegas 5. Lovemark5. Top 5 'sneaky' course history guys (again, have to keep in mind that some of this history is luck of the draw) 1. Ryan Palmer 2. CH3 3. Nick Watney 4. Ian Poulter 5. Stewart Cink6. Top 5 guys from last week that gained strokes putting, but lost strokes T2G (aka hit it like shit but the putter made up for it, in order of most strokes gained putting) 1. Fathauer 2. Tringale 3. Luke Donald 4. Michael Kim 5. Smylie :(7. Right now I would say that their is a slight edge for the Thursday AM/Friday PM crowd. It looks like the winds stay up Thursday afternoon, & then die off a little earlier on Friday.8.  Rory actually gained a tiny fraction of a fraction of a stroke putting last week. Certainly encouraging for this week & moving forward. 9. These are the kinds of weeks where you want to target the guys like Keegan & Glover....lost a million strokes putting combined last week, now go to their preferred surface, & both will be very, very low owned after carrying high ownership (for them) last week.10. Tiger once again lost strokes in every category except putting :(....I will say I'm 1% interested in him on a less than driver course though, thats the club thats really hurting him. 

Thats it boys & girls!

I'll be in Boston tomorrow thru the weekend reppin TJ at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference. @ me if you want me to try & catch up with any of the speakers & ask questions, advice etc. Twitter handle is @TRUmav. Looking forward to reporting back next week! Holla!