Canadian Open Chalk Bomb 2023

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Another week with seemingly very little weather draw advantage. Potentially a small AM/PM wind advantage but appears it could potentially be mitigated by some afternoon rain on Friday.For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Sam Burns -123 ($10,500) vs. Justin Rose +102 ($9,700)

I selected this matchup in part to showcase a potential mis-price in DFS for Sam Burns this week. One of the sharpest market making books opened this matchup at Burns -123. Normally, bettors would be flocking to punch their tickets on a player in the mid 10k range over $9,700 Justin Rose but that is not the case this week.With very little line movement to speak of, we take a look at their stats over the last 24 rounds and Rose has been really sharp and trending with his approach play. Burns on the other hand has been making his strides in typical fashion with the putter of late.When checking into the NutHut aggregate ownership projections, there does appear to be a leverage advantage on Burns this week who is projected at 18.5% ownership while Rose looks like he might be the 2nd highest owned player in the entire field at 23.5%.

Matt Fitzpatrick -146 ($9,900) vs. Corey Conners +126 ($9,800)

In our second matchup, we wanted to highlight a matchup in which both players are only $100 apart in terms of DFS salary but the betting markets have established a clear favorite. Fitz has even taken money in this matchup which has vaulted him up to a hefty -146 favorite over 72 holes in this head to head.Much like the salary price, ownership between these two players is looking fairly level. It comes down to whether or not you trust the oddsmakers in this scenario. If so, Fitz could be a potential value prospect given the closeness of salary and ownership here.We ran a 100 rounds simulation of this matchup and Fitz is projected to win 61% of the time here. That would equivilate to betting odds of -168! Do with that what you please.

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Nick Taylor +106 ($8,100) vs. Eric Cole -126 ($7,900_

Some disagreement in our third matchup between the head to head betting markets and DFS pricing. Nick Taylor actually begun this week as a slight favorite in this matchup before sharp bettors have come to the counter on a rising name in Eric Cole.Cole has been one of the best players in the field in terms of fantasy points gained over his last 24 rounds, a stat that looks at performance and fantasy points relative to salary. Nick Taylor on the other hand has not made a cut since his 2nd place at the team event for the Zurich.Cole has been garnering a lot of attention in DFS and it looks like the NutHut projections have him at nearly 17% owned this week. That's some hefty chalk to eat on a player sub $8,000 in DFS. Taylor on the other hand is projected at 10% ownership. Blame Canada.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Welcome back to the chalk bomb segment, a somewhat lighthearted piece that will hopefully be music to your ears on an intensely tumultuous week in the world of professional golf. Everything is changing, so it's nice to get back to business as usual by trying to find a candidate likely to implode many o' lineups in DFS this week. Here is what we're thinking...With a new course set for this week at Oakdale, after putting in the necessary research, I believe this course should display easier than average scoring conditions while putting in increased emphasis on staying in the fairways off the tee. I'm looking for a certain player who has struggled below their baseline when applying these filters to stats. The player I have chosen, currently ranks 96th in the field in Birdie or Better rates on courses that provide easy scoring conditions. He also ranks 106th in the field in fairways gained and 88th in good drives gained over the previous 36 rounds played. Not good.The composite course they have put into place is not long by any stretch. Depending on tee placement, it is expected to play right around 7200 yards which is short by tour standards. In turn, we expect that players will be hitting more shots with their wedges than usual. When looking at the ranges where we expect most approach shots to come from, there is only one player over $9,000 in DFS that ranks in the bottom half of the field in terms of proximity with his wedges over the last 24 rounds played. Guess what...he's the chalk bomb!There recent results for this player is a mixed bag and YES, the good has outweighed the bad. That said though, for being one of the top players in the world and near the top of the betting board odds this week, this guy has missed the cut in over 40% of his starts in the past 3 months! The main problem in those weeks in which he struggled has been bleeding strokes OTT and the inability to play from the fairways. The rough in my opinion looks gnarly, and it's going to be less about power and distance this week, with increased emphasis on accuracy if you want to have success.It's hard to ignore the elephant in the room. The questions that players will have to answer, how this effects them personally, how this effects them professionally, have they taken a hard stance previously that could make the next 4 days awkward to say the least. I think it would be somewhat ignorant to completely ignore the effect this could have on players performance this week. If a player has been particularly vocal in the past against what has ultimately taken place this week, I believe it puts them in a spot with additional pressure and outside forces that could be distracting from their on course focus.This player in particular, declined his scheduled press conference this week because I believe he did not want to about face a previous hard line stance in front of cameras and media. Has to be a tough week in this sense. You're going to have to face the music sooner or later, but without hearing from them directly, I'm left to believe they are not thrilled with the decisions made this week. It may not impact play negatively, we will see, but it certainly can't impact play in a good way. Projected at nearly 19% owned in DFS and coming in with a salary of $9,900, Matthew Fitzpatrick, you are this weeks chalk bomb! And get those damn braces taken out, you're too rich for that...it's been like 2 years!

I learned this week there are people who eat Cheetos with chopsticks so as to not get orange stuff on their fingers. If you had a magical super-power your dog would not care or look at you any differently. You always hear people complain about something tasting too fishy, but not too mammaly. Oscar the Grouch seems unfairly labeled just because he lives in a trash can. He is caring and severely underrated as a muppet.  Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the RBC Canadian Open. What a weird week so far. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!