Canadian Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Canadian Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

June 05, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop RBC Canadian Open @ Hamilton  

Drake's Motherland Event 

It's an odd week with an odd field at an odd course. What was previously the week after the Open Championship, is now the precursor to the US Open. This has both helped & hurt the field this week w/ a couple elite guys committing to tune up for next week, and a couple others taking their usual week off pre-major. The field is 'odd' because we have 3 players that combine to absorb 37% of the win probability with it being a fairly 'weak' field beyond the top 6 guys. It's an 'odd' course because it's extremely short, even for a par 70. Fairways gained did NOT test positively even with the penal rough, and putting was more important than approach shots even though the heavy narrative is all about ball strikers. Going back & looking at the 2012 RBC at Hamilton it's hard to not notice just how many guys that made the cut that lost strokes tee to green but just putted really well. 27 out of the 79 players that made the cut lost strokes tee to green. I honestly can't remember the last time I saw 3 players absorb 37% of the win equity, so I did a fun backtest on when players, & particularly DJ (who's expected to win 15.4% of the time) are such heavy favorites & what the results were:1. DJ has implied odds of 15.4% to win outright this week. Here is how the last 20 players that had odds of 15.4% or better have done: 1. Rory at the Wells Fargo (8th) 2. DJ at the Valspar (6th) 3. JT at Honda (30th) 4. DJ at ATT Pebble (45th) 5. JT at Sony (16th) 6. Hideki at CJ Cup (18th) 7. JT at CIMB (5th)  8. DJ at Canadian Open (1st) 9. Spieth at the Bryson Nelson (21st) 10. Jon Rahm at the Open de Espana (1st) 11. Tiger at API (5th) 12. DJ at the Genesis (16th), 13. DJ at Pebble (2nd), 14. Rory at Dubai (2rd), 15. DJ at Abu Dhabi (9th), 16. Spieth at Sony (18th), 17. Spieth at TOC (9th) 18. Sergio at Austrilian PGA (24th), 19. Fitzpatrick at Hong Kong Open (19th) 20. JT at the CJ Cup (1st)2. 17 times since DFS golf started DJ has had odds of 14% or better to win a tournament outright, here is how he's done: 6th, 45th, 4th, 1st, 7th,16th, 2nd, 9th, 8th, MC, 13th, 2nd, 2nd, 35th, 6th, 2nd, 5th. So amazingly he's only won once as the heavy favorite (last years Canadian Open) & he's finished 2nd 4 times. But 7 out of the 17 times you could have faded him and been just fine. 3. 6 times Brooks has had greater than 9% or better to win odds, here are his results: 1. PGA (1st) 2. Byron Nelson (4th) 3. TOC (24th) 4. HSBC (16th) 5. CJ Cup (1st) 6. St. Jude (30th)4. When DJ is at least a 14% favorite in implied odds to win, his average ownership is 33.5%. Yikes...it's my personal philosophy that when someone is 30% owned you either have to go 60% plus or fade completely. Ditto for the others. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Garcia vs. Stenson 

These two guys start the mini tier of 4 guys that vertualy identical as far as total strokes gained on short courses. Webb, Sergio, Henrik, & Piercy rank 5th, 9th, 3rd, & 4th respectively in strokes gained tee to green on short courses. Here's my argument for why Garcia is such as a better play: 1. Stenson has one of the worst bent grass putting splits in the field 2. No matter what time frame you look at, Stenson's SG:approach #'s don't match up with his proximity #'s. What do I mean by that? He's 'gaining' strokes on approach because he's hitting a ton of really far approach shots 'relatively' close. He's #2 in the field in sg approach the last 12 rounds, BUT he's only 28th in prox & 20th in GIR's gained. That means he's hitting greens but not putting it particularly close to the hole because naturally his longer approach shots he's playing have a wider dispersion 3. Stenson has lost strokes off the tee in every event sans 1 (he gained 0.1 strokes). So for example he hit 84% of his fairways last week....great....but he averaged 269 yards. Justin Thomas averaged 289 off the tee, only hit 50% of his fairways, but gained 2 more strokes off the tee than Stenson (yes I know JT ejected on Friday, but that's because the rest of his game sucked). Not to mention Stenson could finish in 16th place which would be his best result of the season, & that's absolutely not going to help you win a gpp given his price tag. 

MATCHUP 2

Brooks vs. Rory

Really clear DFS value here as the pendulum has really swung with both these guys. Brooks can't be beat & Rory misses his first cut in basically a year. But as you can see the books don't care & neither should you. Rory is $500 cheaper this week AND expected to win the matchup 54.55% of the time. Pop quiz....in their last 15 tournaments how many times has Brooks beaten Rory straight up? Answer: 3......thats right, 3 out of 15 (thats 20% for those playing at home), and I'm sure you can guess the 3 times that Rory lost straight up. Now it's obviously not without risk as Rory lost strokes off the tee last week for the 1st time since August of last year, BUT almost* every time he's done that in his career he's bounced right back to gaining several strokes off the tee. Surprisingly Rory actually gains strokes against his baseline on short courses while Brooks loses almost 1/2 a strokes against his. 

MATCHUP 3

Snedeker vs. Watson

This is just your friendly reminder that A. Distance always matters B. Bubba Watson's scoring average is a full 2 strokes better per event than Snedeker's C. On short courses Bubba is 7th in the field in ball striking while Brandt is 72nd D. Bubba is cheaper than Brandt and E. Bubba is projected to have less ownership......I mean what more do you want?

MATCHUP 4

Blixt vs. Conners

Probably the one & only time Pat's favorite golfer will be featured here, but I thought the line was interesting for several reasons. My interest is always peaked when golfers start to break out of long sustained trends, both positive & negative. Blixt started a long (1.5 years) sustained drop in play where he consistently lost strokes to the field starting in mid 2017. But at the Farmers this year (1/24) something started to click, & Blixt would reel off positive strokes gained events in 7 of his next 8 events, and going back to the Honda he's gained strokes tee to green in 7 of his last 8 events, something he hasn't done since 2012. While Blixt is $300 more expensive than Conners this week, he's also projected to have 1/3rd his ownership. Conners will be popular this week, and rightfully so as he's actually 10th in the entire field in ball striking on short courses, but he doesn't come without risk. He's basically Gary Woodland lite, with elite ball striking skills & an equally pitiful short game. He's certainly attractive in gpp's, but he's also the kind of player that I love to fade when we get high ownership. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: (I could have easily picked 4 other players this week)

  • Since the start of the season here are his strokes gained off the tee #'s: (-4.6), (-0.6), (-0.4), 0.1, Masters (lost strokes), (-0.1), 0, (-3.2), (-1)

  • His strokes gained putting #'s since the start of the season: 1.8, 1.1, (-2.7), (-2.1), (-4.1), (-0.4), 0.4, (-1.9)

  • He has one of the worst bent grass putting splits in the field

  • He loses almost half a stroke against his baseline on short courses

  • For an 'elite' ball striker he has one of the worst par 3 scoring averages in the field 

  • Again, he's an elite iron player BUT he's 117th on the PGA tour this season in proximity 

  • What does that mean? He has to play a bunch of really long approach shots

  • Another example of how his iron data is misleading....he's #1 on tour in strokes gained approach, yet he's 69th on tour in greens in regulation 

  • One more example: When he 'goes for it' on a par 5, he averages the 3rd highest yardage on the PGA tour (almost 30 yards further than the leaders on tour)

  • He's one of the most accurate players on tour, yet his birdie percentage from the fairway is 19.26%....172nd on tour

  • For the 2019 season he averages the longest approach shots on the PGA tour...literally dead last

  • Despite a top 10 price, he's 39th in the field in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds

  • Over his last 50 rounds he's 76th in the field in birdies or better gained

  • Over his last 12 rounds he's 33rd in good drives gained & 20th in GIR's gained

  • His best finish this season? 17th

  • He's been well below field average in driving distance in 5 straight events

  • Despite being the 9th highest priced player his top 20 implied odds say he will finish outside 20th place 58% of the time

  • He's 68th in DK points scored over his last 50 rounds

  • Kind of like Grillo 2 weeks ago, the missed cut probably is fairly low (I would say 10%), so this is a bet against his upside

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 20.5% this week....Henrik Stenson, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years RBC:

1. DJ 2. Ancer 3. Benny An 4. Duncan 5. W. Kim 6. K Bradley 7. Niemann 8. Stroud 9. Snedeker 10. Garcia

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at Hamilton, (only 4 round sample from 2012)

 1. Stallings 2. Cauley 3. Tringale 4. Holmes 5. Piercy 6. Teater 7. Walker 8. Todd 9. Palmer 10. Gay

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

1. W. Kim 2. Noren 3. Snedeker 4. Piller 5. Simpson 6. Silverman 7. Tway 8. Luck 9. ZJ 10. McDowell

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bent greens, short courses, & par 70.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Kuchar 2. Watson 3. Piercy 4. Garcia 5. Bradley 6. Palmer 7. Furyk 8. Dufner 9. DJ 10. Koepka ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

J If I make another custom model w/ JUST short courses that have long rough, your top 10 in ball striking are:

1. Watson 2. McIIroy 3. Berger 4. Henry 5. Stenson 6. Garcia 7. Furyk 8. Simpson 9. Kuchar 10. JT

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 125-150 yardage bucket, and the 200+ bucket last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. McIIroy 2. Hadwin 3. Simpson 4. W. Kim 5. Bradley 6. Lashley 7. Teater 8. DJ 9. Stenson 10. ZJ

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Hamilton, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Koepka 2. DJ 3. Tringale 4. Prugh 5. Piercy 6. Watney 7. Straka 8. McIIroy 9. Conners 10. Stefani

8.

 S

trokes gained on the par 3's rated the highest in importance at Hamilton so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 3's:

1. DJ 2. Lowry 3. D. Lee 4. Teater 5. McIIroy 6. Cauley 7. Malnati 8. Wise 9. Laird 10. Garcia

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Mullinax 2. McIIroy 3. Cauley 4. Koepka 5. Lovelady 6. JT 7. Bradley 8. Hoge 9. Van Rooyen 10. DJ

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Wise 2. ZJ 3. Blixt 4. JT 5. Berger 6. Im 7. Stenson 8. Gay 9. Watson 10. Mullinax

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

'Dry spell 2k19 has ended, you can tell by the sex hair. Also, someone buy me a comb that I can keep in my back pocket like the cool dads'

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