The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 Chalk 💣

The Texas winds are bringing unpredictable weather in the lead-up to this week’s action with rain and thunderstorms expected Wednesday/Thursday and perhaps into the weekend as well. There’s a good chance the first round will be delayed, so there might be an advantage for the early tee times who may be the only groups to finish their first round on Thursday if the tee times are pushed back.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Si Woo Kim -130 ($9800) vs. Sungjae Im +100 ($9700)

We begin near the top of the board in the $9k range where Sweet Prince Si Woo is a heavy favorite in a head-to-head against his Korean comrade Sungjae Im.

This is neither player's first rodeo at TPC Craig Ranch, but Kim notably has the much better record here with a T2 finish in 2023 in what was his third career start at this venue.

The public loves Si Woo as much as we do apparently, as according to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Kim is the most popular play of the week at over 26%-owned. Meanwhile, Sungjae could potentially be a good pivot at only 12%.

Mackenzie Hughes -129 ($8600) vs. Thomas Detry -105 ($8700)

Taking a look at a pair of the cheaper options down in the $8k range, the sharp oddsmakers like Mackenzie Hughes in a head-to-head matchup with Thomas Detry who is slightly more expensive in DFS.

Hughes has the experience advantage here — making his third start at this venue off the back of a solid T14 finish at last year’s Byron Nelson. For Detry, this will be his first appearance in this event.

There’s no real difference in projected ownership between these two as both are right around 12%, so if all else is equal, this might be a good place to ride with the Canadian as a cheaper favorite.

Joseph Bramlett -132 ($7200) vs. Peter Kuest +102 ($7500)

Lastly, Joseph Bramlett is a significant head-to-head favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Peter Kuest despite a $300 difference in DraftKings DFS pricing.

As bonified PGA TOUR ‘mules’, both players have experience in this historically weak-field event. Bramlett has a surprisingly strong record here with two top-20 finishes in three straight starts, and Kuest managed a T14 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2023.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, Kuest is the more popular player at this price point at roughly 11% ownership — making Putnam a nice under-the-radar option at around 5% if you want to tail the bookies.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

So we gave a half-ass effort last week and got a half-ass result. With a lack of accurate shot link data due to the weirdness of the Zurich’s format, I said ‘screw it, fade Rory’ and the Northern Irishman alongside his comrade Shane Lowry punished me for it. While it technically marks the first outright winner from a Chalk Bomb during my tenure, I think we can all agree that there’s a bit of an asterisk.

Now we move on to some REAL GOLF — or based on this week’s field, something at least resembling a professional golf event. The Tour is back in Texas for the (CJ Cup?) Byron Nelson, and with so few stars to pick from, we have our work cut out for us to find a top name to fade this week.

As a reminder, the infamous Chalk Bomb label is reserved only for those unlucky players projected at over 15% DFS ownership according to our Discord data, so which popular play is the target man this week?

This is just the fourth edition of the Byron Nelson to be held at TPC Craig Ranch, but if the past three years have taught us anything, it’s that this week is an absolute putting contest. As the fourth-easiest track on the PGA TOUR rota, ‘The Ranch’ offers little resistance to the birdie barrage of countless ‘mules’. If not for the typically gusty Texas winds, we might see winning scores better than -30.

The historical data courtesy of our friends at Bet the Number shows that this course can be bullied off the tee, but power isn’t a necessity as much as accuracy and the ability to make birdies in bunches. With that in mind, we’re honing in on approach play and putting at TPC Craig Ranch, and those are not particular areas of strength as of late for this week’s Chalk Bomb

Over his last 30 rounds, our guy ranks 82nd in the field in SG: Approach, and to make matters worse, BTN has identified the 175-250 range as being especially important this week, and this dude is only 70th in the field from that distance.

Turning our attention to the greens, the Chalk Bomb has a reputation as a streaky putter, and he’s been streaking in the wrong direction as of late. Over his last 30 rounds on Bentgrass greens like what he’ll face at TPC Craig Ranch, this player ranks 65th in the field in SG: Putting.

To play a bit of devil’s advocate, this guy does have a strong record at this course with two top 10s in only two trips, but DataGolf has ‘The Ranch’ as one of the top-10 least-predictive courses on the PGA TOUR, so there’s no guarantee he keeps this up — especially considering he’s not carrying any form into this week with just one top-30 finish in his last six starts.

Throw in the fact that the sharp oddsmakers have him as a plus-money underdog to Si Woo Kim who’s over $1k cheaper in DFS, and this just sounds a little too fishy for me.

So coming in at 18% projected DFS ownership and a $10,900 price point, I’m down to fade Jordan Spieth as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I don’t ever see potato skins on appetizer menus anymore. I liked those. RIP Skins.

Dandelions really lucked out in the invasive weed category. Most people are completely fine with them.

Delaware is the first state yet they just said F it. We don’t really need more land.

I’ve seen a bunch of pigeons but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a baby pigeon in my life.

I miss mosquito zappers. Mosquito zapping technology should have just quit when they got to those things. F Citronella candles.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Byron Nelson and good luck with your DFS lineups and wagers. Bome!