Byron Nelson HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Byron Nelson

May 09, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.After a difficult challenge last week at Quail Hollow (except of course for Mr. Wyndham Clark), the PGA Tour arrives back at TPC Craig Ranch which presents a far easier challenge for players this week. If you are looking for an all encompassing course and event preview, here is a link our newest TJ member Nate Moore's Rundown for the 2023 Byron Nelson .Make sure to give the Rundown a read to get your week started, but here are some bullet points to keep in mind when starting your research this week:

  • TPC Craig Ranch ranked as the third easiest course last year in terms of scoring conditions at over 2.5 strokes under par per round on average.

  • The main defense of the course is it's exposed nature to Texas winds, which could present a more difficult task this year.

  • The scorecard has been adjusted to a par 71 this year. The 12th hole will now play as a 493 yard par 4 this season.

  • The greens are large in size and pure Bentgrass. In years past they have been pedestrian in speed.

  • You MUST score on the easy and reachable par 5s.

  • The rough is Bermuda which can be gnarly in spots in your miss the fairways OTT which on average are nearly 39 yards wide, making them the 8th widest on the schedule.

  • Besides the rough which is slightly up this year, there is not much penalty for big misses OTT which will encourage players to take Driver early and often.

  • We expect scoring to be very low again this year unless the wind causes complete havoc. We are looking closely at BOB rates incoming over the last 2 months.

  • DB has multiple friends who are members at TPC Craig Ranch and we should have some great additional intel in the Nut Hut this week and for the Wednesday Night Live Chat. Stay tuned.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for TPC Craig Ranch

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation from last year:

KH Lee, Merritt, Riley, Stallings, Tom Kim, Smotherman, Kodaira, O'Hair

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation from last year:

Kraft, Cook, Percy, Trahan, Si Woo Kim, McGreevy, Laird, List

DataGolf Draftkings Optimal Lineup:Scheffler, Jaeger, Stevens, Griffin, Rai, Schenk

2 DFS SLEEPERS IN < 10 MINUTES SUB 4%

DB's dropping a compelling case for 2 guys in the $6K range on DraftKings and both likely to fall under 3-4% in terms of GPP ownership.Click below & see if DB can sell ya on these guys in under 10 minutes!

1. Best Course History at TPC Craig Ranch in the field this week : 1. KH Lee  2. Merritt  3. Riley  4. Stallings  5. Bezuidenhout  6. Matsuyama  7. Kuchar  8. Power  9. Palmer  10. Hahn2. Strokes Gained Putting Leaders on Bentgrass greens over the last 30 Rounds : 1. Cole  2. Montgomery  3. Schmid  4. Hall  5. Suh  6. Lower  7. Alexander  8. Bez  9. McNealy  10. Eckroat3. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders over last 24 Rounds weighted with field strength :  1. Scheffler  2. Hatton  3. Rai  4. Palmer  5. Bez  6. Hoge  7. Hoffman  8. Tom Kim  9. Dylan Wu  10. Lashley4. Leaders in Proximity to hole from 200+ yards on approach shots in last 24 Rounds: 1. Nunez  2. Hoge  3. Smotherman  4. Scott  5. Coody  6. Roy  7. Min Woo Lee  8. Kodaira  9. Lashley  10. Thompson5. Leaders in BOB gained on golf courses with easy scoring conditions : 1. Tom Kim  2. Montgomery  3. Palmer  4. Hoge  5. Si Woo Kim   6. Higgs  7. Duncan  8. Power  9. Day  10. Matsuyama6. Leaders in Par 5 scoring over the last 50 rounds : 1. Scheffler  2. Dylan Wu  3. Thompson  4. Cole  5. Norrman  6. Westmoreland  7. Hadwin  8. Kuchar  9. Daffue  10. Kordaira7. Total Fantasy Points Scoring Projections for this week via Datagolf : 1. Scheffler  2. Day  3. Hatton  4. Tom Kim  5. Matsuyama  6. KH Lee  7. Kuchar  8. Si Woo Kim  9. Jaeger  10. Spaun8. Leaders in Opportunities Gained over the last 36 Rounds played : 1. Hoge  2. Hoffman  3. Riley  4. Scheffler  5. Gerard  6. Si Woo Kim  7. Kodaira  8. Hatton  9. Roy  10. Palmer9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Scheffler  2. Day  3. Schenk  4. Griffin  5. Rai  6. Jaeger  7. Spaun  8. Hubbard  9. Palmer  10. Stallings10. Datagolf Leaders in Postive Adjusted Course Fit for this week: 1. Barnes  2. Baddeley  3. Points  4. Chalmers  5. Stuard  6. Bryan  7. Potter Jr  8. Micheluzzi  9. McGirt  10. Crane

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