Byron Nelson Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Byron Nelson Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

May 08, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest 

Year of the Comeback

Big shout out to Max Homa for his win last week. I think one of the coolest things that podcast like Tour Junkies, No Laying Up, Feherty, Erik Anders Lang, Matty & the Caddie just to name a few do is to give you a REAL, sincere look behind the curtain of what exactly life on tour is like, just how freakin hard it is to get to the tour, let alone win on tour, and just how easily it can all be taken away from you. For those unfamiliar with Max's journey, he was a first-team All-American at Cal and won the NCAA Division I individual championship in 2013 & played on the Walker Cup the same year. He bounced back & forth from the Web to the PGA tour twice, with his 2nd attempt on tour in 2017 resulting in 17 events played, and 2 cuts made. During the worst stretch of his career in 2017 he said his entire purpose was to learn one new thing every day so he could be prepared for when his game would finally turn around (even though he had no idea if it ever would & he admitted he thought about giving up numerous times). He found this quote that Kobe had in his locker, 'this stone cutter is chopping away at this big boulder and he swings at it one time, two times, three times, 100 times, without a dent being made in it, and on the 101st time it completely breaks apart. A wiseman knows it was not the 101st blow that did it, it was the 100 blows before it.' To see Max go from shooting 80 in PGA tour events in 2017 to winning on tour just two years later truly is one of the best stories in golf this year, and one of the best stories in general of human perseverance that we can all learn from. Congrats Max!I'm excited.....we got a REALLY good stretch of golf coming up the next 5 weeks with the PGA next week, Colonial, Memorial, Canadian, then US Open. I wish the Byron Nelson was more popular with the players because it would be really fun to see all the top players bury birdies on top of each other. This is year 2 here at Trinity Forest, and we certainly learned a little about the course last year, but as far as course fit all you really need to know is you have to make a shit ton of birdies and all the things that generally go with that. This played as the 3rd easiest course on tour last year, the driving accuracy % was damn near 80% last year, the field 'average' GIR hit % was 76%! and the average driving distance was almost 290 yards. The main things that backtested best were eagles made, birdie or better, par 5 scoring, driving distance, and putting on bermuda.  

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Hideki vs Koepka 

Lets talk about Brooks first, because he's probably the most important decision of the week. He's projected to be the highest owned golfer in the field, and as far as a course 'fit' and being good at the things you need to be good at to win here, he's got it (he's in the 10 facts quite a bit). BUT I'm here to endorse a full fade of him. He's pretty clearly shown a lack of interest in 'regular' PGA events and was quoted as saying the following yesterday: 'I had never seen the course in person until today (Tuesday)', 'I can't tell you much too much about it (the course)', 'Last week I put the clubs away for a week', 'But it doesn't matter. I could care less', and lastly 'I like building a little rhythm, finding your game, figuring out how to score, to manage your game....we've looked at stats and usually my second week out is my best week.' (this is his 1st week back out obviously). I think it's pretty easy to read between the lines there and see, 'If the PGA wasn't next week there is no way in hell I would be playing this event.' So here's the real rub though, Brooks can bring his DGAF game, and with the course playing so easy and the field very weak, he could still top 10 pretty easy. I am of the opinion though that there's plenty of downside risk with him this week, and throw in the fact that he has ONE good finish the week before a major since the 2017 season. According to 15th club he's also dead last on tour this year in lag putting, which is important on the huge greens this week. Moving on to Hideki, he's actually #1 in the field this week for strokes gained tee to green the last 50 rounds, and while his 'normal' ceiling is def lower than Brooks, I think at least this week, he has a WAY higher floor and I would fully endorse in cash. 

MATCHUP 2

Grace vs. Mitchell

Really clear DK value here as Keith Mitchell is $100 cheaper than Grace yet is -140 in head to head betting. Grace is projected to be fairly popular but I'll gladly X him out of my player pool this week. Of everyone priced $8300 and up, he's easily the worst in regards to total strokes gained (84th in the field the last 50 rounds). Grace's last top 10 finish on the PGA tour? Exactly a year ago at this event. Even when you compare Mitchell's & Grace's Byron Nelson GIR% from last year, Mitchell hit 7 more greens than Grace, he just averaged 31 putts per round. Mitchell is the WAY better course fit, way better form, and actually better history, it's a pretty easy decision here. 

MATCHUP 3

Sabbatini vs. Rafa

Remember when Rory Sabbatini used to talk shit to Tiger then get pummeled whenever they were paired together? Rory is so unliked in his birth country he now claims Slovakia (& it's a super petty way to get into the Olympics next year). Rafa is equally unlikable, as I witnessed him first hand berate a poor volunteer walking behind a green 150+ yards away from him....both of these guys could give Booooochar a run for his money in most hated on tour. Anyways another big DK value matchup as RCB is $400 cheaper than Sabbatini but a -140 head to head favorite. RBC is currently the 'better' golfer averaging a little more than half a shot per round lower than Sabbatini, and is actually 6th in the field in total strokes gained the last 50 rounds. RBC is also the best 'value' as he has 22.2% implied odds of finishing in the top 10 at just $8600 (for reference Im also has 22.2% implied odds at $1k more). I don't completely hate Rory though as he finished 13th here last year and is actually 3rd in the field in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds, one of my favorite 'hot ball striker' stats. 

MATCHUP 4

Bjerregaard vs. Scheefler

Tons of DK value this week, and here is another great example. Bjerregaard is $800 more expensive than Scheefler but is a +125 underdog. If your just looking at strokes gained data Lucas will look like one of the worst players in the field because he has all of 4 events worth of data. This is his first year committing to the PGA tour full time, and just to give you a look at how well he was playing on the Euro tour last fall here were his results from 8/20 on: 9th, 6th, 2nd, 20th, 1st, 9th, 69th, 5th, 11th....pretay pretay good. He's also been steady so far on the PGA with only 1 missed cut and fresh off a 21st at the Masters. So how can this guy be such a big underdog to a guy you probably haven't heard of yet? Scottie Scheffler is a former US Junior Am champ that just so happens to be one of the best players to ever come out of the University of Texas. Since the beginning of the year on the Web tour he's already had 5 top 10's, plus he finished 20th at the Texas Open on his lone PGA tour start so far. He's a future PGA tour regular that both fits the course and is playing a home game with almost no ownership this week. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • Dating back to the WGC Mexico his total strokes gained per event are: (-9.7), 5.3, (-0.9), (-1.9), (-2.1). So 4 out of his last 5 events he's lost strokes to the field

  • In an equally weaker field at the Heritage, his last event, he was $2,000 cheaper....and he didn't play well 

  • Since the WGC Mexico his best finish is 23rd

  • His last 4 events he's hit less than 63% of his greens in reg at every event

  • He's 76th in the field in approach shot prox of 200 yards+, far and away the top approach shot distance

  • He's 73rd in the field in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds

  • He's 85th in the field in birdies gained the last 12 rounds

  • In that same time period he's 128th in fairways gained and 52nd in the field in GIR's gained

  • Of all the players that finished in the top 10 at last years Byron Nelson, he gained the least strokes tee to green

  • At last years Byron Nelson he also gained 8.9 strokes putting on the field, something he had never done before and has not done since (his 2nd best strokes gained putting event was 4.7 the last two years)

  • He's a head to head pick em against someone thats $900 cheaper on DK

  • He's 20th in the field in par 5 scoring, the most important area to gain strokes

  • Despite having a top 5 salary, he's only +250 for a top 10 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 10 are 71.43%

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 23.4% this week....Marc Leishman, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Bryon Nelson:

1. Wise 2. Mitchell 3. Spaun 4. Grace 5. Spieth 6. Tway 7. Na 8. Matt Jones 9. CT Pan 10. Duncan

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at Trinity Forest, remember we only have 4 rounds of data

 1. Wise (he hit 92% of his greens in reg last year, unreal) 2. Leishman 3. Grace 4. Spaun 5. Mitchell 6. Na 7. Walker 8. Blaum 9. CH3 10. Tway

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. McCarthy 2. Burns 3. Barn Rat 4. Thompson 5. Malnati 6. Gay 7. Wagner 8. Donald 9. CH3 10. Perez

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, easy scoring, & easy to hit fairways.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Spieth 2. Stenson 3. Leishman 4. Na 5. Cook 6. Cauley 7. Wise 8. CH3 9. Burns 10. Mitchell  ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 Birdie or Better gained:

1. Koepka 2. Clark 3. RCB 4. Palmer 5. Spieth 6. Im 7. Wise 8. Mitchell 9. Lebioda 10. Bozzelli

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 175-200 yardage bucket, and 200+ last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Hideki 2. Swafford 3. Stenson 4. McNeil 5. Mullinax 6. Koepka 7. Knox 8. Lashley 9. Watney 10. CT Pan

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Trinity Forest, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Prugh 2. Stenson 3. Sabbatini 4. Stuard 5. Palmer 6. Scheffler 7. Straka 8. Schenk 9. Koepka 10. Olesen

8.

 S

trokes gained on the par 5's rated the highest in importance at Trinity Forest so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 5s:

1. Koepka 2. Im 3. Sabbatini 4. Ortiz 5. Scheffler 6. Frittelli 7. Harding 8. Stenson 9. Noren 10. Pieters

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Schenk 2. Stenson 3. Mullinax 4. Lovelady 5. Ghim 6. Stuard 7. Matsuyama 8. Landry 9. Merritt 10. Na

10.

Links-style course strokes gained leaders (min 30 rounds) :

 1. Koepka 2. Stenson 3. Wise 4. Spieth 5. Stallings 6. Reed 7. Matsuyama 8. Grace 9. Scheffler 10. Leishman

WIN A

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