Byron Nelson Bomb

Happy Legalized Betting Week!

Man I remember listening to Chad Millman's podcast 'Behind the Bets' in probably 2010 when he had on the lead lawyer for the state of New Jersey as they started to make their push towards the supreme court to reverse the federal ban on sports betting. As with any reversal of legislation it moved at a glacial pace but its extremely exciting for the entire industry and especially exciting for golf. Just consider the fact that Pete Rose is permanently banned from baseball for betting on the game, but the USGA has rules already in place to allow for gambling. The PGA was previously on the fence about legalizing gambling on the federal level, but towards the end of the fight officially backed lobbying efforts in DC. I can tell you as someone who had quite a bit of money disappear overnight during Black Monday in 2011 with the feds basically seizing/shutting down all US online poker accounts it's a pretty bittersweet moment. I'm extremely excited to see the ways that this can help grow the game of golf and drive even more people into our little 'eco-system' like DB & Pat talked about on the pod 2 weeks ago. Depending on the state you live in, the timeline for being able to legally bet is very different with some states being up & running in months, others several years away, here is quick overview of where each state stands today. In honor of the federal ban finally being lifted, we're adding a new section to this weeks email that I think should provide great value to both DFS players as well as bettors. 

Finding Value in Head 2 Head Matchups

Something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis is looking at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. A perfect example last week was the head to head for Bryson DeChambeau vs Patrick Cantlay. DeChambeau was $800 more expensive than Cantlay on DK, had substantially more industry buzz, yet Cantlay was the -135 favorite over DeChambeau. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week:

Leading off with a bang! This one jumped off the page at me more than any other head to head I saw this week. Hideki is $400 more expensive on DK this week, but the industry buzz & projected ownership for Walker is at least 4 times more than Hideki, with Walker having the Texas narrative and strong recent form fresh off a T-2 at the Players and Hideki missing the cut. If you look at Hideki's numbers from last week, he actually lead the field in strokes gained off the tee, but was 3rd to last in strokes gained approach, his main calling card. Seems like the books are betting he returns to form as he's a substantial favorite over Walker this week (also has played well on links courses over the years). (Hideki is also a favorite over Grace who has a lot of buzz this week)

I think you'll see a recurring theme here, the books don't give a shit about the Texas narrative. It's only natural I suppose for the DFS community to greatly overstate the local knowledge value given the lack of course history and data to see who/what does well at Trinity Forrest. If you've read the Chalk Bomb from the beginning of the year you know my soft spot for the baby faced Texas kid that looks like he just got his braces removed. But consider the fact that Hossler is $300 more expensive than CH3 this week & is expected to garner at least twice the ownership (& possibly be the 2nd highest owned behind Spieth) the books are in clear disagreement with the DFS crowd listing CH3 as the -120 favorite. 

The battle of the bombers! Another very surprising price given Mitchell's great recent form & JB's very mediocre form....I've seen both touted in several places this week but the price of the head to head was surprising. If you would have asked me to guess the line for this matchup I probably would have had the odds reversed. If I had to guess I would think the books are giving JB the edge thanks to his good history on links courses. 

A couple other interesting prices: Adam Scott -145 v Billy Horschel +125Grayson Murray -130 v Ryan Palmer +110Brandt Snedeker PK v Peter UihleinMarc Leishman -165 v Billy Horschel +140If any of these prices look good to you, check out our boys over at mybookie who have really upped their golf offerings thanks in large part to David & Pat. They now offer everything from first round leader bets, matchups, top 10's, futures, and of course outrights to win. Just click the button below and use promo code:'TOURJUNKIES' for a 50% deposit bonus! 

THE Chalk Bomb

These are the kinds of weeks where we can see absolute carnage as by and large the entire DFS community is making nothing more than educated guesses on whats important this week and who 'fits' the course. The Texas narrative and the links narrative are both strong this week as well as strokes gained approach. With the weak field we have about 8 guys soaking up lots of ownership at the top but almost no real 'values' down below. With the highest priced player in Spieth being projected for over 25%, SOMEONE in the 7k range is going to soak up a lot of ownership. I'll admit that as far as world ranking is concerned this guy is one of the very few to have 'value' this week, but as it just so happens for us, he also fits zero of the narratives. -Played well in Texas? Nope, he in fact generally skips the Texas Swing, & the one Texas event he did play this year he missed the cut-Plays Links courses well? Nope, his best finish since 2012 at the Open Championship is 22nd w/ no other finish higher than 44th-Has a good approach game? Nope, in fact this guy is basically turning into what Luke Donald has already become. Loses strokes off the tee basically every round, breaks even on his approach shots, then prays to 6 pound 5 ounce baby Jesus that he chips in a bunch or drills a ton of putts. The ownership projections are all over the board this week with the unknowns, but this guy is projected to be 20% owned everywhere that we look. The stars pretty much have to align perfectly for this guy to gain strokes approach, gain at least 4 full strokes around the greens, and at least 5 full strokes putting to even finish in the top 30 (he's done it once this year). Kevin Na, you're the chalk bomb!

10 Facts You May or May Not Need to Know

1. Jordan Spieth, Beau Hossler, and Hunter Mahan are all members here at Trinity Forrest 2. The biggest theme we picked up on while looking at the betting matchups is that the books really weighted links course history and basically didn't weight Texas roots at all3. 10 guys that have historically played well on Links style courses 1. Snedeker 2. JB Holmes 3. Bill Haas 4. Spieth 5. Grace 6. Sergio 7. Padraig Harrington 8. Hideki 9. Mahan? (wouldn't have guessed that) 10. Kuchar4. Top 5 guys that have gained more strokes on Bermuda grass than other grasses: 1. Knost 2. Murray 3. Horschel 4. Sabbatini 5. McDowell5. Top 10 strokes gained approach leaders the last 24 rounds: 1. Piercy 2. Sergio 3. Spieth 4. Scott 5. Garrigus 6. Spaun 7. Leishman 8. Duncan 9. Niemann 10. Putnam6. There appears to be an ever so slight tee time draw advantage for the PM/AM draw as the winds will be much heavier throughout the day on Friday7. Your strokes gained approach leaders from the Players that are playing this week: 1. Werenski 2. Huh 3. Kuchar 4. Tway 5. Scott 6. Piercy 7. Leishman 8. Haas 9. Spaun 10. Hossler8. I went back and looked at the last time a tournament changed courses and if the DFS community got it 'right', surprisingly the industry got most of the top right, but below about 8k many of the high owned guys failed. 9. Top guys under 8k in my very generic course fit model this week: 1. Ben Crane (?) 2. Laird 3. Uihlein 4. Putnam 5. Sam Saunders 6. Mitchell 7. Kodaira 8. Dicky Pride 9. Connors 10. McDowell10. Top 10 guys for strokes gained around the greens last 24 rounds: 1. Na 2. Baddeley 3. Cejka 4. Leishman 5. Walker 6. Matsuyama 8. Gay 9. Spieth 10. Murray ps. 11th is JB Holmes, thought that was interesting 

New Contest Alert!!!!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Fore ($4), Best Ball ($8), or Dogleg ($33) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TourJunkies Avatar