Byron Nelson 2022 Heavy Petting

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If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

• DB has a couple of good friends that are members at Craig Ranch, and he'll be on site Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as credentialed media. Keep your eyes peeled in the Nut Hut for intel from the course

• Sung Kang is the only Craig Ranch member in the field. Si Woo Kim used to be a member but isn't any longer. Scheffler, Spieth, Kuchar and Palmer have logged plenty of rounds out here. Willy Z grew up playing here and still lives close to the course.

• Ryan Palmer and Sam Burns hold the course record at 62. Ryan's wasn't in a competitive round though.

• KH Lee, Berger, and Charl were the only players in 2021 with all 4 rounds in the 60s. 

• Spaun, Stallings, English, Spieth and Kizzire all fired a round of 63 in 2021 during the Byron Nelson.

• There are only 6 courses that have been played on the PGA TOUR since 2015 with wider fairways than TPC Craig Ranch

• In 2021 (the 1st time ever at Craig Ranch), Craig Ranch was the easiest course statistically around the green since the PGA TOUR started tracking in 2015.

• Last year, the course took on plenty of rain leading up to and during the event. The course played much longer and the greens much more receptive than they should play this year. (KEEP IN MIND FOR PrizePicks Props)

• In 2021, the average number of fairways hit per round was 10.15 out of 14. The average number of GIR out of 18 was 13.25 (KEEP IN MIND FOR PrizePicks Props)

• 18% of iron shots last year came from 150-175 yards in soft conditions

• It will be very dry this week and firmer than in 2021, but the fairways are Zoysia and they certainly don't run out like bermuda, rye, fescue, etc. 

• Don't leave out stats like Opportunities Gained and/or DK Points Gained in your models as this will be a scoring fest. The cut last year was -6!

• All four par 5's are reachable in 2 by most of the field. Par 5 scoring will be a minimum requirement for going low.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Byron Nelson: 1. Burns 2. KH Lee 3. Zalatoris 4. Schwartzel 5. Vegas 6. Bramlett 7. Spieth 8. Whaley 9. Donald 10. Westwood2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bent grass: 1.Kokrak 2. Hughes 3. Snedeker 4. Bez 5. Noren 6. Poulter 7. CH3 8. Harman 9. Hossler 10. Power3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. JT 2. Niemann 3. Hadwin 4. Munoz 5. Spieth 6. Kitayama 7. Si Woo 8. Schauffele 9. Pereira 10. Wise4. On courses > 7400 yards, easy to average scoring & bent greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained: 1. DJ 2. Spieth 3. Scott 4. Westwood 5. JT 6. Matsuyama 7. Day 8. Schauffele 9. Koepka 10. Kuchar5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses > 7400 yards, easy to average difficulty, & easy to hit fairways: 1. Stenson 2. DJ 3. JT 4. Watson 5. Kokrak 6. Spieth 7. Hoffman 8. Westwood 9. Gooch 10. Zalatoris6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. JT 3. DJ 4. Burns 5. Riley 6. Vegas 7. McNealy 8. List 9. Swafford 10. Griffin7. Top 10 ball striking on easy, long courses last 50 rounds: 1. Stenson 2. Palmer 3. Hoffman 4. DJ 5. JT 6. Scott 7. Watson 8. Matsuyama 9. List 10. Kokrak8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Wise 2. Kitayama 3. Wu 4. Hadwin 5. Rai 6. Pereira 7. Fleetwood 8. Stenson 9. Straka 10. Taylor9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Matsuyama 2. JT 3. Zalatoris 4. Laird 5. Smotherman 6. Niemann 7. Gooch 8. Ortiz 9. Straka 10. Scheffler10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Power 2. Scheffler 3. JT 4. Hoge 5. Watson 6. Si Woo 7. Wise 8. McNealy 9. Munoz 10. Straka

Last week wasn't the 5x return that we got the week before, but we squeaked out a 1.5x return since it was a flex play. Here's what DB is looking at for Round 1 on Thursday. More on this and other PP plays in the Nut Hut all week and especially be on the lookout for DB to drop more of these once he scouts out TPC Craig Ranch in person and talks to our caddie and player friends.

Going with the FLEX Play here so we can hit w/ 3 of 4 or 4 of 4. I'm bullish on the fairway overs given how wide the fairways are. The early wave will get lower wind speeds to deal with as well, so you'll notice all of these guys are TH AM.

3 Sleeper Picks in 15 minutes

> 1 $8K play that could go overlooked

> Ownership projected at sub 10% on all 3 plays

> 2 $7K sleepers, including 1 that nearly tied the course record here in 2021