This Week's Tour Stop The Players @ Sawgrass 

'Our' Tournament

Reporting Live from the Players! If you didn't listen to the pod this week, we were lucky enough to get media access yesterday and today, so Pat, David & I all just left the course. I'm trying to compose 75% of this from the Jacksonville airport to get this out at a decent hour tonight so have mercy (& we unfortunately had to cut out DB's Big Balls betting for lack of time this week), but we got TONS of great info on the course and got to walk inside the ropes with several of the players yesterday. The first thing that really jumped out to all three of us was how thick the rough was. We did a quick video live from the course just talking about the rough so go to our twitter feed and check it out

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rom both the eye test & what the players have said is that it's not terribly penal on approach shots, but we saw LOTS of chunky chips and it's almost impossible to get any spin on the ball. The greens.....are not in the greatest shape despite what the players have said. No one is gonna come out & nuke the grounds crew, but the collar on almost every green was in rough shape & several total greens didn't look to hot. A lot of the players were even expecting several new pin placements because of the condition of the greens. 

Another interesting quote from a caddie we spoke to was 'I feel like these greens are putting more like bentgrass then bermuda' (due to the new time of year & general condition of the greens). The major takeaway for me after walking the course & seeing the prep process for the players was target GIR guys that can scramble. The real beauty of the course is that no one 'type' of player dominates here. Every single player in the field that has at least 3 starts with the exception of literally four players: DJ, Sergio, TommyLad & Adam Scott ALL have at least one missed cut, and most have several! Some guys that seem tailor-made for this course have played very poorly, and even former champs have had stretches of bad history.

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. So we have a very, very funky course fit this week. As you can see driving accuracy has a pretty big relative premium at Sawgrass which makes sense. While missing the fairway isn't that penal, missing in the wrong PLACES is extremely penal. We saw several of the bigger hitters take less than driver off a lot of the holes, including par 5's. So again, what exactly is all this data telling us? The short story is that the only thing that has had any real predictive success at Sawgrass is accuracy, which also explains why course history has largely not been predictive of future results. The weather is supposed to be perfect all week so no wave advantages. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Fitz vs. Day

Fitz -150 vs. Day +130

Lets start with the good part on Jason Day, he will be the lowest owned former champion in the field. After WD'ing last week with his baulky back and burning the 11% of people brave enough to roster him, he'll almost certainly be sub 7-8%, which is really the sweet spot for playing him. He obviously carries the risk of taking a zero, but he's always been a great fit at Sawgrass with his elite short game. We talked about Fitz last week, and as you can see the books took notice making him the -150 favorite. Despite poor finishing positions at the Players he's actually been sneaky good in hitting his GIR's here. Bermuda is far & away his best putting surface, he gains strokes around the greens, and his price this week at $7300 has to be one of the best values on the board.

MATCHUP 2

Xander vs. Simpson

Xander -130 vs. Simpson +110

Webb and his caddie Paul joined our group to walk the last couple holes of the front 9 on Tuesday, and it was incredibly impressive watching him practice shots around the green where his likely misses & bailout spots are. He made extremely difficult shots look routine over & over. His course history is obviously good, but it's slightly inflated because he's gained an incredible 16.7 strokes putting the last 3 years at Sawgrass. The books have Xander currently as the -130 favorite which really surprised me (though it would be the other way around). In limited sample size (only 6 rounds) Xander does lead the field in GIR% at Sawgrass, and even last year when he missed the cut he hit 3 out of 4. Before last week Xander had gained at least 6.2 strokes tee to green leading up to the event. He's right in the sweet spot for DK price, and hopefully his history & form go overlooked for the guys at the very top.

MATCHUP 3

Rory vs. Rahm

Rory -135 vs. Rahm +115

It seems like a recurring theme every week now. The decision to play Rory as the most expensive player with possibly the highest ownership makes you take a stand to either fade him completely or try & double the field in ownership. You probably still needed him last week to have any shot at gpp success, but I would always lean towards the fade in this scenario (& you were one or two spots away from not needing him). For those of you that read the Players chalk bomb from last year, you'll remember that I made the case that Rory (pre-win) actually had the best course history in the field. The scary thing is that on this current run of his, he hasn't gained more than 2.2 strokes putting, and even last year in his win he only gained a half of a stroke. So lets quickly go over the fade case because the play case is easy: 1. Golf is extremely volatile 2. Even Rory has missed cuts here 3. Course history is not nearly as predictive here as it is at other courses 4. He's not that big of a favorite against the 2nd highest priced guy. 5. This is the best field of the year

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a -120 head to head underdog to someone $1,000 cheaper than him

• Despite a top 6 price, he doesn't rank inside the top 23 in any of the 4 main strokes gained categories at Sawgrass

• He's got poor bermuda splits, gaining 0.03 strokes per round

• He's 57th in the field in proximity from 200+ yard approaches, the most important yardage bucket

• Over his last 50 rounds on bermuda he's 109th in the field in strokes gained putting

• His last 3 events his scrambling percent has been 55, 54, & 62%, all below his long term averages

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 32nd in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 72nd in the field in fairways gained

• Pat, David & I watched this guy on the putting green for a good 30 minutes on Tuesday, and watching him miss the same four foot putt 5 times in a row. It was a tough scene that I just couldn't unsee

• Despite being a bomber he's not even in the top 20 in the field for strokes gained on the par 5's

• He's returned value on his DFS price once this season....at the Tournament of Champions with 34 players

At 19.2% actual FNGC lineup generated % (5th highest), Patrick Cantlay, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Pontificate with Pat The Players Championship credentialed media edition:

I’m moving up adult male autograph seekers in the rankings of worst humans on the planet. Think they may even crack my top 10.

Speaking of autograph seekers, I’m certainly fine with kids getting autographs. That’s fantastic and I did the same growing up. Great for growing the game. Asking for balls is also ok too I think. Asking for towels, articles of clothing, and for anything that could possibly be in a players bag? Not ok.

Today we learned thanks to DB’s great journalism skills that Brooks Koepka thinks pleats are back in. So basically it’s a momentous occasion and victory for the shamed pleated pant wearing people who have so long been oppressed. Let us all drink Tito’s and celebrate!

Ben An is horrifically bad at putting even on the putting green when it doesn’t matter at all. At least he’s consistent.

That’s all I got folks! May your bets hit and your screens be green this week at the Players Championship. Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Players:

1. McIIroy 2. Kuchar 3. DJ 4. Bradley 5. Fleetwood 6. Snedeker 7. Furyk 8. Ancer 9. Conners 10. Taylor

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Sawgrass (min 8 rounds): 

1.  Schauffele 2. Cantlay 3. Pan 4. Stenson 5. Laird 6. Rahm 7. Knox 8. Kuchar 9. Cauley 10. Grillo

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bermuda (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1.CH3 2. Day 3. Poston 4. Fowler 5. Lashley 6. DeChambeau 7. Im 8. Simpson 9. Horschel 10. Munoz

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses under 7200 yards, firm greens, and fast greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Day 2. Stenson 3. Watson 4. Grillo 5. Cantlay 6. Simpson 7. Matsuyama 8. Fleetwood 9. Si Woo 10. Ben An

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, average to difficult scoring, and short courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Kuchar 2. Streelman 3. Kokrak 4. Furyk 5. Dufner 6. DeChambeau 7. CH3 8. Fleetwood 9. Watson 10. Stenson

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 3 events in 2020):

1. Schauffele 2. Conners 3. McIIroy 4. Morikawa 5. Hatton 6. Scott 7. Streelman 8. HV3 9. Steele 10. Poston

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Sawgrass, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1.Thomas 2. McIIroy 3. Koepka 4. Schauffele 5. Scott 6. Casey 7. Clark 8. Jones 9. Woodland 10. Lashley

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 200+ (40% 150-175 & 60% 200+), so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Simpson 2. Casey 3. Scott 4. Woodland 5. Hadwin 6. Matsuyama 7. McIIroy 8. Hadley 9. Harman 10. Kokrak

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 3 events in 2020):

1. Matsuyama 2. Munoz 3. Gooch 4. McIIroy 5. Long 6. Burns 7. DeChambeau 8. McNealy 9. Champ 10. Niemann

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Koepka 2. Day 3. Steele 4. RCB 5. Rose 6. Na 7. Leishman 8. Finau 9. Reed 10. Ancer 

11. Top 10 in strokes gained on Pete Dye courses:

1. McIIroy 2. Kuchar 3. Scott 4. Day 5. Casey 6. DJ 7. Rose 8. Si Woo 9. Cantlay 10. Furyk

12.

'

New' Custom course history ranking:

1. Knox 2. DJ 3. Stenson 4. Cantlay 5. Scott 6. Conners 7. Laird 8. Rahm 9. Kuchar 10. Garcia