BMW Championship Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

BMW Championship

And then there were 69! As the rest of the world preps for week 1 of the NFL (your truly included), thank you to those that are stayin on your grind through the finish of the 2018 season. Also shout out to our boy Kiz in what is the tweet of the week, roasting everyone's favorite person to roast, Patrick Reed: 

Another classic Donald Ross course this week that was revamped by Gil Hanse 3 years ago. It's a short(er) course playing a little over 7200 yards, but only six holes by my count are 'short' holes by PGA standards. Generally though the beauty/genius of Ross courses are that the holes that look get-table on the tee box are generally the most penal if you hit a poor tee shot. The course played fairly tough the last two events that were held here, and I would expect the winning score to be around 12-15 under. In other news the American Ryder Cup team appears to be set, mercifully Matt Kuchar will still be allowed to captain the ping pong teams, and he's formally been announced as the latest Ass Captain. The corresponding move would indicate that as long as podbro Tony Finau is still amongst the living next week, he'll be the fourth and final captains pick in what should be (on paper) the best American team since 1981. Leh Go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Last week we highlighted both Bryson & Rose (and offered cases why they were both values) #YourWelcome, so lets dig in!

After everyone left Justin Rose for dead, he comes straight back with a solo 2nd to help all the top GPP finishers last week. It was a perfect example of mean regression and why it's so critical to look inside the numbers as to how someone actually got to where they finished. At the Northern Trust, Rose missed the cut, BUT he actually hit MORE greens en route to his missed cut than he did last week with his 2nd place finish! The lone difference was basically losing 6.2 strokes putting at the Northern Trust, to gaining 3.5 strokes putting at the Dell....thats it! He had gained strokes putting in 7 straight events before that...anyways, DJ is of course the head to head fav over everyone, but for DFS purposes he's still a pretty easy fade. Think about this for a second (talking strictly trying to win a GPP)...in a loaded field, being $11600, DJ basically has to finish top 3 AND not have any of the 7 guys closest to him in price not finish above him. The Bridgestone is a great example, DJ finished 3rd, but he was still a bad gpp play because you had 3, 9k guys all finish in the top 7! AND, really the only course in the entire playoffs that really really suits DJ's game is East Lake (as far as the courses that we are playing on this year). Our boy (my boy) Bryson once again gained strokes in every.signle.facet.of.the.game. last week, for the 6th time this season! Thats what you call, 'making it easy on yourself' when you pick up strokes on the field no matter the club in your hand. His salary has gone from $7400 to $10k in 3 events, so the form is certainly priced in....this is a fair line in my eyes as Brooks is still $500 more expensive this week and has finished no worst than 12th since August 1st.My favorite whipping boy Jordan Spieth has certainly found his putting stroke again, gaining strokes in that department in 6 straight events. Jordan, like Bryson, also gained strokes in every category last week and seems to be rounding into peak form just in time to beat that Euro ass. Jason Day on the other hand continues to go in the opposite direction, almost losing strokes across the board (gained 0.1 strokes around the green last week). While Day is still the best putter in the world, the rest of his game has consistently been poor really since June. Over the course of this last 10 events (which includes his win at the Wells Fargo) he's averaged 0.2 strokes gained TOTAL per event between his tee shots and approach shots. If we just combined Gary Woodland's tee to green shots with Jason Day's around the green & putting....that player would win every event by 10 shots. Give me all the Spieth.For arguably the first time in over a month, Tony Finau is appropriately priced at $9500. Last week Tony played some of the best all-around golf of the season finishing 3rd in strokes gained approach and gaining his usual 2 strokes off the tee AND two strokes putting. This week Tony is still $200 cheaper than Hideki yet is the head to head fav and one of the few favorites I actually see a little value in. Here is one of the matchups that can be a great tell for us DFS players. Cam Smith (while the form is no doubt great) is A. more expensive than Hatton B. Will carry almost double the ownership C. Went from losing strokes putting basically every event to gaining at least 4.3 strokes per event in 3 of the last 4 D. Is the WAY lesser player looking at any metric you want that goes back further than 2 weeks. Hatton was right in the thick of it last week as well until the back 9 on Sunday, give me all the Hatton.This is a very interesting matchup.....CT Pan is $600 cheaper than Sweet Lou, yes, but by all accounts he's going to be super chalk this week after his 4th place finish at the Dell. What really should scare you about CT this week is that he gained 9.1 strokes approach 3 events ago (generally his biggest strength) but now he's lost strokes approach in two straight since. He also gained 4.1 strokes around the green last week, which would represent the 2nd highest total of his professional career...not to mention he had lost strokes putting in 4 straight events until last week. 

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THE Chalk Bomb

Another easy pick this week as we nailed Billy Horschel last week (is a score of 0 for a DFS player good? Is shooting a 41 on the front 9 then WD'ing from 'allergies' good? Asking for a friend?) Some facts about our man this week:1. His price increased $800 despite having 25 less players in the field2.  Excluding weak field events, it's his 2nd highest price of the season3. He's a head to head underdog against a cheaper player4. His ownership has increased in 4 straight events5. He finished 4th last week, yet didn't even gain ONE full stroke combined between strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach6. He's gained 5.2 & 5.3 strokes putting in two of this last four events....6.5 is the most he's ever gained in one event, and over the course of his career he has averaged -0.4 strokes gained.Our friends over at Fansharesports.com have this guy projected as the 7th highest owned player & #4 in tags this week:Deki, your the chalk bomb! Also, can we all agree he's the champion of ugly golf outfits...he just loves the color 'bumble bee yellow'?P.S. In GPP's I also have zero issue fading CT Pan as well.

10 Facts So You Can Be like Kirby Smart and not Pat Perry

1. Last 50 rounds your strokes gained putting leaders on bentgrass greens are: 1. Hossler 2. Grillo 3. Harman 4. Day 5. W Kim 6. Fowler 7. ZJ 8. Snedeker 9. Phil 10. Noren2. Your strokes gained approach leaders last 12 rounds: 1. JT 2. Mitchell 3. Woodland 4. Koepka 5. Horschel 6. Fowler 7. Molinari 8. Rahm (seems to have finally turned a corner) 9. Tiger 10. Rafa3. Top 10 guys that have the biggest positive putting splits on bent vs other surfaces: 1. Ancer 2. Uihlein 3. Koepka 4. Fowler 5. Rose 6. Stanley 7. Armour 8. Molinari 9. Putnam 10. Rory4. Since were at a par 70 again, your top par 4 scorers the last calendar year: 1. Spieth 2. DJ 3. Rose 4. JT 5. Rahm 6. Cook 7. Webb 8. Hadley 9. Stenson 10. Tiger5. The last time the tour played here (2010 & 2011) strokes gained putting accounted for 43% & 44% of the net scoring per DataGolf.com....thats a lot, its usually like 35%.6. Abraham Ancer is very quietly had a really good season. He's finished top 7 three times in this last 7 events, and a couple other times this year he's been right in the hunt heading into Sunday. He also gained strokes across the board last week.7. Top 10 guys in GIR hit the last 6 weeks taking into account field strength 1. Fowler *hasnt played since the PGA 2. List 3. Horschel * not including his 41 front 9 last week 4. Cantlay 5. Woodland 6. Stanley 7. Finau 8. Molinari 9. Kokrak 10. Stenson8. Your strokes gained tee to green leaders from last week: 1. Rafa 2. Bryson 3. Grillo 4. Ancer 5. Woodland 6. Chappell 7. Rose 8. Finau 9. CT Pan 10. Cantlay9. If I create a custom model with Fast/Bent greens, Par 70, difficult course, your top 10 in total strokes gained would be: 1. Spieth 2. Webb 3. Tiger 4. Rose 5. Keegan 6. Kisner 7. Rory 8. Stenson 9. Leishman 10. CH310. Top 10 in the model for this week: 1. Fowler 2. DJ 3. Cantlay 4. JT 5. Fleetwood 6. Finau 7. Koepka 8. Stanley 9. Rose 10. Stenson

Win a FREE M4 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Tee To Green ($6), Albatross ($12), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar