The BMW @ Caves Valley

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

The BMW is, in essence, the end of the 2020-2021 DFS golf season for the vast majority of us. This is generally the last week I would really pay attention to golf until the Sony Open in January. Next week we'll still have the pod, and a betting article or two, but no Chalk Bomb or 10 facts (going to a conference in Vegas, thank you for your thoughts & prayers). We'll pick it right back up with the Fortinet Championship the following week, then the greatest event in all of golf, the Ryder Cup, is on deck!  We'll finish up the (new) wrap-around season with 8 straight weeks of events closing out the 2021 calendar year with the RSM @ Sea Island. The boys will take a couple of well-deserved weeks off during December & come back fresh for the Sony Open to kick off the 2022 season. It's tough to do a lot of course fit analysis this week with no PGA Tour history at Caves Valley (though the course looks absolutely beautiful). They've hosted a couple of Mid-Ams, some Senior Tour events, a couple of women's events, & a couple of NCAA men's events. These are the concrete things we know about the course: 1. It's a par 72, so your gonna have to go get the par 5's to compete 2. Bentgrass tee to green 3. Tom Fazio design 4. Rough is 4 inches high 5. Fairways are pretty wide & forgiving 6. Scott McCarron won the senior Players here in 2017 at 18 under 7. It's got some length at 7,542 yards particularly in some of the 3's & 4's. That's all we really know. From watching a couple of flyovers of the course and getting some info from caddies on the ground we've heard that there's a very Augusta 'feel' to the place with an emphasis on total driving, bentgrass putting, and forgiving fairways. The course is super super soft right now with all the rain the Northeast just got, and the caddies don't expect that to change. 

The weather looks a little dicey again this week. As my Pappy would say, there's 'thunder sprinkles' projected for every afternoon which should continue to make the course play soft & long(er).  

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

Rahm vs. Schauffele 

Rahm -209 vs. Schauffele +176

I think it's pretty safe to say that Jon Rahm is trying to put his foot down on being the undisputed best player in the world right now. His average points for world golf rankings (whether you believe in the system or not) is almost a full 1.5 points above 2nd place (DJ). If you want to argue Morikawa is better, I'm fine with that, but as we sit here right this second Rahm is the no doubt #1. The sportsbooks are also showing him the same respect making him a MASSIVE -209 favorite over the 2nd most expensive player in the field, Xander. Rahm's ball-striking was incredible last week, gaining 13.1 strokes which is generally good enough to blow a field away. In his last 4 events alone he's gained an unreal 49.6 strokes on the field. And if the course plays like I think it will (long, easy, & soft) you can probably go ahead & pencil him in for a top 10. Xander was better last week than he was at the WGC (though in fairness he had just come all the way back from Tokoyo & was probably exhausted). He still lost strokes off the tee at the Northern trust which is concerning, but again the course should also be a really nice fit.  

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MATCHUP 2

Smith vs. Koepka

 Smith -111 vs. Koepka -105

Big DFS value on Cam this week as he's $700 cheaper than Brooks yet the H2H favorite. The sportsbooks continue to be all over the place with Brooks & at least to my eye, I see quite a bit of value on him as an underdog in this matchup. Last week was only the 2nd time all year that Cam had gained strokes across the board & was also a new career-high in strokes gained on approach for a single event. Cam has certainly solidified his place as a top 20 player in the world, but it's usually a prime mean reversion setup when someone makes a new career-high in anything as well as gaining 10.3 strokes putting in his last 2 events. After reeling off 4 top 6's in a 5 event span, Brooks has cooled sustainably. He's lost strokes on approach shots and putting in 2 straight events which historically have been strengths for him. His off the tee game has been as strong as ever which makes me think it's just a matter of when, not if he can turn the irons around. I like the course fit for both guys if you're going with the Augusta Jr. view. 

MATCHUP 3

Hovland vs. Oost

Hovland -136 vs. Oost +117

Once again big DFS value on Hovland in DFS markets as he's $500 cheaper than Oosty but a decent favorite in H2H markets. Earlier in the year, Hovland had made some really great strides in his short game which translated into 5 top 5 finishes. The ball striking has still been pretty good (though not as good as earlier in the year) and it looks like he's fallen straight back into his old ways with very poor around the green events & just as bad putting. In just the last 3 events alone he's lost 14.6 strokes in the short game #NotGreat. However over the last 24 rounds, he's still 9th in the field in ball striking, and one of the best par 5 scorers on tour. Oosty comes into this week (hopefully) fresh after gambling that a week off will pay dividends for the final 2 events of the year. I just want to take a second & appreciate the incredible putting run he's been on for the last calendar year. He's played in 21 events, & gained strokes putting 21 times. He is FAR & away #1 in strokes gained putting this year, and he's very sneakily 10th on tour in strokes gained around the greens. It's hard to make bogeys when you do that. The biggest difference this season has been his strokes gained on approach. Since the Valspar, he's averaged almost 4.5 strokes gained per event (not even counting The Open which he surely gained strokes at). 

Other interesting lines:Garcia -131 vs. EVR +112Cantlay -128 vs. Rory +110JT -116 vs. Morikawa -101Noren -125 vs. Horschel +107Glover -112 vs. Higgs -104Tringale -118 vs. Kokrak +101DeChambeau -131 vs. Finau +112Niemann -110 vs. English -106

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• His total strokes gained has dropped in 3 straight events

• In the last calendar year, all 4 of his top 10's have come in extremely weak field events (3M, John Deere, Byron Nelson, Puerto Rico Open)

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 2 of his last 4 events

• His strokes gained on approach the last 4 events has gone from +5, +4.3, +2, +0.7

• He's a streaky putter at best. While he's gained strokes putting overall the last 4 events, he's lost strokes for his career & has several events of -4 strokes or worse

• Ditto for his around the green game

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 37th (out of 69) in DK points scored

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 62nd (out of 69) in strokes gained in the short game

• Despite being a long hitter, he's only 33rd in the field in strokes gained on the par 5's

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 43rd in the field in the two main approach shot buckets

• He's a H2H underdog to several guys cheaper than him

At 18.5% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (3rd highest) Jhonattan Vegas, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Why are 100% of left turns at a traffic light not a flashing yellow arrow? It makes me furious when there are zero cars coming the other way & I'm starring at a red arrow. Do security guards in art museums really ever stop anybody from taking the paintings? The thieves must look at this guy & go, 'Alright, all we've got to do is get past the folding chair, the flashlight on his belt, & thermos of coffee...and we can get the Rembrandt'Something I was thinking about the other day on a related topic. All prison is-is just a place that you're not allowed to go out. That's the whole punishment. You can read, eat, sleep, exercise, have friends, watch tv...it's your same basic life that you have now. You just can't leave. I drink sometimes. That's probably news to all of you. My wife gets on to me about staying hydrated...like I'm a delicate exotic fern in need of constant hydration. 'Did you hydrate? Make sure you hydrate. Because you know what could happen to you if you don't hydrate? You could get dehydrated.' Oh no. Wouldn't I get thirsty first? 'No. There's no time' I'm really anti-jet ski. But I can hear some of you now, 'No, come on Pat! Jet Skis are cool!' Ok. what can you do? You can speed up. Turn. Go back around to where you just were. Catch up to your friend on the other Jet Ski. It's great!!!!I'll tell you something I really appreciate about Asian folks. They're really hanging in there with the chopsticks. Clearly they've seen a fork & been like, 'Yea, that's nice' but we're gonna stay with the sticks'Usually, people buy trucks so they can haul things around in the back of said truck. But have you ever noticed that like 90% of all truck beds are empty? I just don't get it. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy The BMW and a fantastic field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!