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The BMW is, in essence, the end of the 2019-2020 DFS season for the vast majority of us. This would usually be the last week I would really pay attention to golf until the Sony Open in January but with the reshuffle, our fall schedule has obviously changed. Next week we'll still have the pod, and a betting article or two, but no Chalk Bomb or 10 facts (going Bull Red fishing next week w/ family & friends). We'll pick it right back up with the Safeway the following week, our usual extended coverage for the US Open the week after, I would assume another off week after that (was supposed to be the Ryder Cup, but now it's just an alt-field event), then we rip off 6 weeks in a row to cap off with the November Masters, and we'll start fresh for the 2021 season back at the Sony (hopefully with fans!). 

Tough to do a lot of course fit analysis this week with the last professional event being played here in 2003 for the US Open (& pre-strokes gained). But I do think we can take away a couple of things of note to at least consider this week: 1. Jim Furyk won & several other shorter guys had high finishes, so while the big hitters always have an edge, I don't think it's a must to only play bombers. 2. Furyk won at -8 on a US Open setup, I think it's fair to expect the winner this week to be in the 8-12 under range 3. There's 4 400-450 yard par 4's & 4 450-500 par 4's 4. Both 5's this week are over 600 yards 5. According to the official fact sheet, the rough is listed at 4 plus inches 6. Fairways gained was one of the better predictive metrics in 03

For game theory: I don't see any mega chalk 25%+ projected guys right now, but about 15 guys that will be 15%+ then it drops off pretty quickly from there. I would guess that you'll need at least 3 guys that are sub 10% in gpp's, and as always, leave at least $100 on the table! 

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

JT vs. DJ

JT -125 vs. DJ -105

Surprised at the price? You probably shouldn't be. Over the last 50 rounds (so obviously including DJ's drubbing of the field last week), JT has actually shot a better score than DJ in 29 of those last 50 rounds (or 58%). No matter which way you slice it, DJ is on a heater currently. If he hadn't lost 0.4 strokes putting at the St. Jude, he'd have gained strokes in every single category for the 3rd straight event. He gained an unreal 12.1 strokes on approach shots last week, far & away a new career-high, even when he was the undisputed best player in the world in 16-17. I would argue the even more impressive part has been his short game, as he's gained 8.2, & 7.6 between his around the green & putting shots, also a career-high for a 2-week stretch. So the million-dollar question is, can he sustain it this week? Even during this run of good play (w/ the exception of last week), DJ has lived in the 6-7.3 strokes gained tee to green. That's still great, but for the last calendar year, he's gained at least 6 strokes tee to green & finished outside the top 10 four times. For him to pay off his salary this week he pretty much is gonna have to finish top 5. Most sportsbooks have him at 3/1 for a top 5 finish, so basically 66% of the time they are expecting him to not pay off his salary this week. JT has actually had a higher baseline for strokes gained tee to green all of 2020, with him living in the 6.7-8 range & gaining 10+ 3 separate times (DJ has only done that once, last week). The bugaboo for JT has been the putter the last 3 weeks, as he's lost 1.9, 3.5, & 4 strokes. If you remember he had a prolonged period last year where he also struggled with the putter after being one of the best on tour in 2018. The good news is that both bent & poa are his 2 best surfaces, and from all the projections I've seen, this should be one of his lowest ownership weeks in quite some time. I think the sharp play is DJ in head to heads & JT in gpp's. 

MATCHUP 2

Harry vs. Hideki

Harry -114 vs. Hideki -116

The sportsbooks are certainly giving Hideki some credit this week so when I dug into the numbers I was expecting to see some positive trends, but I honestly don't know what they're seeing. Perhaps the fact that he's gained strokes putting in 2 straight events, something he hasn't done since the playoffs LAST year is the trend they see (but spoiler alert, Harry has gained strokes putting in 10 straight events & gained strokes around the green in 13 straight events). Let's focus on Hideki's ball striking the last 4 events which are supposed to be his calling card: Memorial: -4.1, WGC: 4.5, PGA: -0.5, Northern Trust: 1.6...those are not great numbers. When we dig even deeper I would attribute most of the poor numbers to his driving accuracy which has been WELL below field average for said last 4 events (43% FIR, that's good for dead fucking last in the field the last 4 weeks). He'll certainly be low owned this week, and bent/poa are his 2 least sucky putting surfaces, so there's that. Now we arrive at Harry, & what will probably be another hot take. Love Harry in cash, like him in H2H, but hate him in gpp's...let me explain why.  He's been incredible on & around the greens as mentioned above, gaining almost a full shot on the field per round. The irons have been really good too, but here's my concern, especially in GPP's is that I'm just not sure he has the ceiling to really breakthrough. He's oddly gained exactly 3.8 strokes on approach shots 3 times in the last 6 events which is his high watermark. Again, that's very good, but you have several of the even better ball-strikers doubling that total on a fairly regular basis. It's a similar story for his off the tee game, as his last 3 events he's gone -0.4, 0, & 0. You've got the better drivers of the golf ball routinely gaining 3-6 strokes off the tee each week. Last week he gained 8.8 strokes in the short game, a season-high. He's averaged 4.9 strokes the last 10 events, even if he just hits this very high average your most likely looking at a finish outside of the top 15, which won't help you in winning a GPP. 

MATCHUP 3

Finau vs. Cantlay

Finau +106 vs. Cantlay -136

This was the most surprising H2H price I came across this week. I expected Finau to be a pickem at worst against Cantlay, maybe even a favorite. Both guys missed the cut last week, both guys lost over 3 strokes putting in just 2 rounds, but Tony gained 3.1 strokes ball striking while Cantlay gained 0.1 strokes. Patrick has played rather uninspiring golf the last 4 events gaining 2.7, 2.6, 1.4, 0.3 strokes tee to green. When you dig deeper it's really the same story, in every category he's either gaining a stroke or two each week or losing a stroke. There's really only 4 things to like about him this week: 1. He might be the lowest owned guy $8100 & up 2. Bent & poa are his best surfaces 3. He's historically a good putter anyways, coming off his worst putting event of 2020 4. The sportsbooks are giving him respect. For Mr. Finau he's been the definition of boom or bust the last 7 weeks, with 2 missed cuts, 2 other poor finishes, & 3 top 8's. Like I alluded to above, the ball striking has been solid every single event in that stretch sans the WGC which he clearly just mailed it in. He's gained strokes off the tee in 9 straight, approach shots in 5 of the last 6, and had actually gained strokes putting in 4 straight until last week. Like Cantlay, Tony also does his best work on bent/poa, and hopefully after burning 30% of the field last week will be owned at a substantially lower clip. 

Other interesting lines:Scheffler -117 vs. Reed -113X -132 vs. Rory +101Na -148 vs. Steele +118Conners -121 vs. Kokrak -109Kiz -117 vs. Casey -113Streelman -115 vs. Smith -115

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 3 out of his last 4 events

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 2 of his last 4 events

• He's lost strokes around the green in 3 of his last 4 events

• He's gained 10.1 strokes putting the last 2 events, more than doubling his previous 2 events high

• Before the last 2 events, he had lost strokes putting in 5 of his last 6

• He's a head to head underdog in all of his matchups

• As the course difficultly goes up, his strokes gained goes down

• He loses strokes against his baseline on par 70's

• This is projected to be his highest ownership in the last 6 events

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 34th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 33rd in fairways gained & 27th in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 56th in the field in par 4 scoring

At 18.2% calculated ownership% (3rd highest), Viktor Hovland, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Why do golf carts have the loud beeping noise when you’re backing up? I mean, it’s a small vehicle. You don’t see that on cars, trucks, or SUV’s? Hell it’s not a Mack truck you’re driving it’s a damn golf cart.

I covered this on the pod this week but let’s talk about soup for a second. I think it’s a lazy food. I mean, people just throw shit together, put some water in there and maybe some chicken or beef broth and call it a meal. It’s also hard to eat, or drink, hell I don’t know which one it is. Somebody needs to invent a better spoon for eating soup also. Even the so called “soup spoon” doesn’t work well. Also, chili IS NOT soup. It’s just meat and beans in a bowl with some sauce.

I’d like to congratulate my brother, affectionately known on the pod as “DirecTV Perry” on the birth of his first child. A beautiful baby boy named Will who will no doubt become an outstanding man like his Uncle (and father of course). That said, he’s now dealing with all the wonder, trials, and tribulations of a newborn. Which brings me to my final pontificate. Why the hell is there the saying “sleep like a baby” when all they do is wake up all the time?

Alright, that's all I got folks! Enjoy the BMW Championship this week and the 2nd leg of the FedEx Cup. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!