BMW Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

BMW Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

August 14, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop BMW Championship @ Medinah 

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Thank You!

This will be my last Chalk Bomb of the 2019 golf season, and I wanted to start it out by thanking everyone that takes the time to read it each and every week. I can't believe how big our weekly readership has become despite my (poor) mastery of the English language and complete disregard for proper grammar. Having the unique view of seeing what goes on behind the curtains each week at the Tour Junkies has opened my eyes to just hard the podcast game really is, and the unbelievable time commitment it takes to make it happen each week. So if you enjoy the podcast and content that Pat & David give you every week, and especially the laughs, make sure you tell them, the rare feedback of appreciation really does mean a lot. You also probably wouldn't believe that this silly little article takes up almost my entire Wednesday every single week as I grind over the numbers to try & deliver impactful data to help your decision making process a little bit easier, a little bit better. The article itself keeps getting better and better (I cringe when I go back & look at some of those very first ones #Didn'tReadTheMailChimpUserManual) and I'm constantly thinking of ways to improve it & make it a unique piece that no other source gives you. A lot of the podcast/content/DFS game is just like golf, and that's what makes it so much fun. You can always do more, you can always be better tomorrow than you are today, and even when you shoot a 59, the only thing you'll think about is the stroke you left on the course. It's been a great year & I know team TJ is really excited about a couple major developments heading into next season. Thanks again & see you for the Sony Open! Also, Go Dawgs!

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Morikawa vs. Woodland 

Arguably the most surprising line of the week given the course setup and length. Gary certainly hasn't played great since winning the US Open with last weeks 52nd being his high water mark, but the ball striking came back to life and Gary did his usual of losing strokes around the green and putting. Morikawa has crushed the 3 easy courses he's played this year but has had a little more difficulty putting it all together on the harder courses he's played. While I agree that Morikawa should be the favorite as you can pretty much bank on him gaining at least 3-4 strokes in the short game over Gary (& that's probably conservative), the question then becomes can Gary gain those back in the long game on a long course. I think I prefer Woodland in the betting markets simply from the attractive price & Morikawa in DFS. 

MATCHUP 2

Rose vs. Thomas

For a second week in a row Rose is favored over JT (he won the match up last week), but the tables have kind of tilted for the BMW. It was the tale of two completely different events for these guys at the Northern Trust. JT was once again really good tee to green, gaining 8.5 strokes ball striking. Rose gained a mere 0.8 strokes tee to green and and 0.6 strokes ball striking. Rose was 3rd in the field in strokes gained putting and continues what will likely be his best putting season to date. JT lost strokes putting for 8th time in his last 9 events and continues what will likely be he WORST putting season to date. The splits on bent grass hasn't changed for either guy as Rose has one of the best in the field & JT has one of the worst. The change from last week is simply the value. Last week Rose was cheaper in DFS than JT but this week he's $200 more expensive. 

MATCHUP 3

Speef vs. Fowler

Just in case you were wondering, Spieth is still one of the worst values on the board. Since the Byron Nelson he's gained an almost unfathomable 5 strokes putting PER event. To put it another way, the 2018 strokes gained putting leader Greg Chalmers gained .790 strokes per round, Jordan is almost DOUBLING that currently (his last 36 rounds). On a brighter note he did gain the most strokes on approach shots that he's gained in a calendar year last week. My boy Rickie cut me deep at the Northern Trust but I'm going back to the well again because all the reasons I liked him last week are still present. One of the best in the field in long iron proximity, one of the best in the field in bent grass putting, and he's cheap again (plus his ownership will be super low coming off the missed cut). 

MATCHUP 4

Koepka vs. Rahm

Dollar for dollar Rahm is the best value on the DFS board this week as he's $900 cheaper than Brooks and the -135 favorite in head to head betting. Rahm could have easily won last week if not for some key hiccups in the final round, and still ended up gaining 8.2 strokes tee to green & very sneakily has gained strokes putting in 7 straight events (plus he has a positive bent split).  Brooks on the other hand has sneakily lost strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 (with the major outlier being the St. Jude where he gained almost 10 strokes). It's hard to not love Rahm's value in DFS this week, but gun to my head I would roll with Brooks in the head to head markets.

Other interesting lines:

Ancer -125 over Sabbatini

Simpson -125 over Fleetwood

X -115 over Finau

Benny An -140 over Kiz

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's lost strokes on approach shots in 4 of his last 7 events

  • He's lost strokes putting in 6 straight events

  • Over the last calendar year he's hit the 3rd fewest fairways in the entire field

  • He doesn't rank in the top 20 in the field in any strokes gained statistic over the last 50 rounds

  • He's 43rd in the field in approach shot proximity from 200 yards plus

  • Over his last 50 rounds he's 61st in the field in birdies gained

  • Even though he's played better recently, over his last 12 rounds he's still not even in the top 25 in GIR's gained

  • Over that same time period he's 42nd in opportunities gained

  • He's a head to head underdog in his only head to head matchup (of someone projected to be owned at half his ownership)

  • This week is his highest price tag since the 1st week of July

  • His top 10 implied odds are 23.3%....so 76.7% of the time he is expected to finish outside the top 10

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at  17%, Tony Finau, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders the last 50 rounds:

1. Rory 2. DJ 3. JT 4. Casey 5. Cantlay 6. Benny An 7. Matsuyama 8. Scott 9. Woods 10. Woodland

2. 

Historical

 

GIR Leaders the last 6 weeks: 

1. Casey 2. Grillo 3. Scott 4. Kisner 5. Rahm 6. Fowler 7. Oost 8. Koepka 9. Rose 10. Benny An

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1. Snedeker 2. Fowler 3. Spieth 4. Kisner 5. Clark 6. Horschel 7. Na 8. Reed 9. Hadwin 10. Rose

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ par 72 courses, bent greens, and over 7400 yards...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1. Spieth 2. DJ 3. McIIroy 4. Day 5. Rose 6. Kuchar 7. Phil 8. Casey 9. Koepka 10. Scott

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on long courses that are par 72's your top 10 are:

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Scott 4. Glover 5. Rose 6. Woodland 7. Palmer 8. Molinari 9. Day 10. Finau

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Scott 2.Rahm 3. Ancer 4. Oost 5. Kiz 6. Casey 7. Morikawa 8. Conners 9. Benny An 10. Frittelli

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Medinah, so your top 10 in par 5 scoring average are:

1. Scott 2. McIIroy 3. Woodland 4. JT 5. Casey 6. Clark 7. Cantlay 8. Poulter 9. Im 10. Kuchar

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 175-200 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Woods 2. Reavie 3. Fowler 4. Woodland 5. Simpson 6. Koepka 7. McIIroy 8. Matsuyama 9. Homa 10. Leishman

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. HV3 2. Casey 3. Simpson 4. Sabbatini 5. DJ 6. Palmer 7. Morikawa 8. Rose 9. Scott 10. Taylor

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Tiger 2. Fowler 3. Schauffele 4. Simpson 5. Finau 6. Fleetwood 7. Scott 8. Oost 9. Spieth 10. Casey

PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you"

-Patrick P. Perry

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