BMW CB 2023

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Here is the forecast for Thursday. Looks pretty windy all day with gusts but early morning may be the worst. That said, with only 50 guys the tee times are all squeezed together and not as early.For final thoughts on waves, weather, and more...make sure to join the LIVE chat tonight starting around 9 PM ET in the NUT HUT.

Jordan Spieth +102 ($10,000) vs. Tyrrell Hatton -124 ($9000)

This has been kind of a strange week with head to head matchups as we have not seen a ton of line movement from the sharpest books. This immediately immediately strikes us as interesting given how expensive Spieth is in DFS this week.Data golf has Spieth rated a -0.31 value because of his DFS Price and Hatton is actually +0.57 which is in the top 5 players of the week by their metrics. After a lackluster Sunday from Jordan in the heat, you wonder if he has lost a little gas in the tank after playing so well and failing to place the top 5.If you apply a head to head matchup simulation to these two utilizing data over the last 36 rounds for each player, Hatton is projected to win this matchup 66.6% of the time. Ownership in DFS is pretty one sided with Hatton expected to be around 15-16% owned for the week.

Rickie Fowler -125 ($9200) vs. Russell Henley +105 ($8200)

We have seen bettors come in against Henley in both matchup offerings at the sharp books but we wanted to focus particularly on this one with Rickie given the $1000 difference in DFS. Believe it or not, oddsmakers actually opened Rickie as a slight -105 underdog in this matchup.Henley is always sneaky. He seems to fade on Sundays like at the Wyndham recently and we forget how well he played for the week on the whole. He is going to be pretty popular at around 16% ownership in DFS while Rickie is looking like he will tee off around 11% ownership.If you follow the money in this matchup, bettors are pretty keen on Fowler. Both players are in a small pool of players who have been gaining over 1.5 strokes per round over the last 36 rounds played so take your pick here!

Matt Fitzpatrick -138 ($8000) vs. Lucas Glover +115 ($9100)

The Glover train has been an unstoppable force, but bettors in the matchup markets this week are not afraid to jump in front of the train with the better long term player in Matty Fitz. This line opened at -110 each way before consistent dollars have poured in on Fitzpatrick.I would tend to agree that the run on Glover has to come to end soon, but the simulator does not. It believes that Glover will win this matchup over 68% of the time based on recent data. He could actually be value here as a big underdog.Fitz is actually projected at sub 10% ownership this week in the Nut Hut ownership projections which is a bit surprising given his eye opening salary. Glover on the other hand is expected to be around 12-13% owned this week coming off back to back wins!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Last week was a pretty ho-hum week for the Chalk Bomb as Colin Morikawa as he played his way into a tie for 13th. He didn't kill you, but didn't exactly help you win a big GPP either at his ownership and popularity. This week things continue to heat up as we head North to the outskirts of Chicago and the challenging test that awaits at Olympia Fields. There are plenty of big numbers and double bogeys to be yielded at this golf course as we saw in the past when this event was held here in 2020. Let's see if we can nail the highly popular player that will bag a few of those doubles this week! Sack up and fade or ignore the play as they say!The biggest unknown this week for most come down to whether or not you believe this golf course plays as firm and fast as it did in 2020. We know there has been rain in the area this week and this summer which should help to soften the golf course making it play a touch longer. The other thing nobody has really touched on is the new superintendent overseeing the North Course. He is 27 years old and was not the superintendent when this event was held here in 2020. Now this is pure speculation, but I would tend to think that a young kid, relatively new a job, and tasked with hosted a playoff event for the best players in the world, may be reluctant to setup a super firm, fast, and difficult test for the fear or ridicule by the players and media if he pushes the line too far. All this to say, I think that Driving Distance will play a more important factor this week than it did the last time. We ended in a Rahm/DJ Playoff then, so you cannot exactly say it didn't that year, but I think it gets accentuated even further this year. The CB candidate I am looking at this week ranks a mere 45th in a field of only 50 players in Driving Distance. If you look at where this player has success, any course that puts an added emphasis on power is not this players preferred setup. I think places like Oak Hill and even Winged Foot could share some similarities to what we see cater to success this week.The other thing I wanted to really look at is how a particular player performs when the scoring conditions are more difficult than normal. On par 70 golf courses with difficult scoring setups, this player ranks in the bottom half of the field which probably directly correlates to their lack or punch off the tee. These big boy tracks reward strong athletes who can power through deep rough and bomb it. The CB this week just ain't that.My next concern with this particular player is their success at events seem to come with one of two important caveats. Either they are at a great course fit where they have very positive history, or they gain a boatload of strokes putting and ARG. We'll they finished 25th in the 2020 version at Olympia Fields and failed to break par in 3 or the 4 rounds they played so that is not exactly something to write home about. They are also typically a very savvy player and most comfortable on Bermuda grass greens. This week of course we have a blend of mostly Bent Grass with poa mixed in. Bent Grass is actually the only surface over their career where they fail to gain strokes putting on the field.I worry that they are simply outmatched OTT here which is going to require them to hit much longer irons into these greens which they want to play bouncy and firm to begin with. I have serious doubts that this is course where they are going to able to make up for this deficiency effectively with their short game. This all culminates in a letdown week and is the recipe we look for when we believe a player could under perform expectations, especially when the latest Nut Hut Ownership projections have this player as one of the most owned guys of the week.At nearly 17% projected ownership in DFS, welcome to chalk bomb territory Russell Henley! Good luck, but play poorly sir!

Me last week in Pontificate: "What if David never hits another outright bet ever again?"... Well... you're welcome DAVID! When I cook french fries I intentionally overcook them. I love crispy fries. You know, like those potato straws in a can crispy. I don't understand why it takes Pharmacists so long to put pills in a bottle. The Chalk Bomb is even later going out this week than last week. I hope and pray DB put the correct link to his betting card so he doesn't yell at me again. Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the BMW Championship at the challenging Olympia Fields Country Club. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!