BMW 22 Chalk Bomb

BMW Chalk 💣 2022

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There doesn't appear to be any sort of wave advantage as of this Wednesday afternoon. We don't see a reason to stack tee times for now.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 845pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Scheffler -133 vs Finau +103

This line surprised me a little given Scheffler's MC & bad publicity last week alongside Tony's red hot form. But the books and H2H bettors LOVE Scottie this week as he's a major favorite over Finau, Cantlay & JT. It was all flatstick issues for Scottie last week, and we'd assume he'll be just fine this week on bent grass. It's certainly tough to argue with Tony's play, and honestly, he's likely chalk I'll be eating. But Tony & JT are two guys projected higher owned than Scottie across the board, yet both are major dogs in the H2H market. Scottie could be a high end pivot owned around 15% in most contests and worth consideration for a bounce back.

Lowry -142 vs Tom Kim +112

There's zero doubt that Tom Kim is on fire and the kid has a bright future. However, the market making books and the H2H bettors clearly hopped off the train on this course and in this matchup. The line hasn't moved much, and my guess is the handicappers realize that Wilmington CC isn't Sedgefield and Southwind. This is a big golf course taylor made for the long ball hitters. If there's one thing in Tom's game that could hold him back on some PGA TOUR tracks -- it's his distance.In DFS, Tom is projected at around 14% across the board (double Lowry's projection). You save $300 and cut the ownership in half by taking a major champion, long hitter (28th in DD over the last 50 rounds), and a guy at 5th in SG: APP over the last 50 rounds. I'll gladly side with the books and H2H bettors on this one and pivot to Shane in DFS.

Homa -113 vs Davis -107

I'm a big fan of both of these players in general. I actually think this line says something more about Davis than it does Homa though. I like Homa as a high upside pivot this week as he's only projected around 10% in that lost mid $8K range I mentioned on Monday night. Homa's one of the best total drivers in the world and his putting has been tremendous all year. I'm playing Homa everywhere in DFS and he made my betting card.Now Davis...is $900 cheaper in DK but he's nearly a coin flip in this matchup on a market making book. I believe that points to Davis being underpriced on DK versus Max being overpriced. The problem is...the DFS community would tend to agree as Davis is projected around 15 to 18% across the board. THAT...presents a textbook DFS game theory dilemma. Do we play a potentially 18% $7.6K guy? Are we willing to roster him in 35 to 45% of our own lineups to go overweight? Are we willing to pass on the value though in the name of fading the mid $7K chalk?Ultimately, that's for you to decide based on your play style, your contest selection, and your player pool. But for now...I'm leaning towards Cam being one of the last out of my DFS player pool and just sticking to betting him outright and top finish position.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

After a hot run of CB's lately, Tony Finau continued his hot run to end ours by finishing 5th at Southwind. Oh well. Streaks end eventually. Let's start a new one. 

I arrived to this one much easier this week than last week. Jon Rahm finally has his first top 5 finish since winning in May and everyone's ready to jump back on I guess. I'm not. And it doesn't have THAT MUCH to do with Rahm himself. The only thing that still turns me off about Rahm is his putting continues to suck. Over the last 50 rounds, he's 47th in 3 Putt Avoidance and 36th in SG: Putting overall in a field of 68. The flat stick and the general lack of touch he's displayed on and around the greens all season concerns me on 8100 square foot monster greens where lag putting is essential.But aside from that, there's no reason to avoid Rahm statistically...but DFS is a game. And the game is about ownership leverage. I just couldn't make myself include Rahm in the player pool with Rory right there above him for $200 more and ownership projected to be exactly the same across every site i've scoured.Sure Rory missed the cut last week. But, he said in his presser today that he was rusty and not super sharp going into last week. He missed the cut and went straight to Wilmington. He played the course Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and today! He said it's way more drivers than last week for him and he loved the place. Well duh! This place is perfect for the McRib! I'll gladly take Rory at the same ownership, with far better form all around and greater upside than anyone in the field.

At +20% (top 4 highest) projected ownership, John Rahm Rodriguez,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I can't imagine how great a day it was for the person who discovered popcorn. They found a new delightful snack and a much better way to eat corn.Cookie Monster is a cookie waster.Is rice just a miniature noodle?30 seconds seems like a really short period of time, until I can't skip thru an ad. I think we take for granted how brave dogs and cats are running down a staircase. I mean, imagine doing that same thing but from their perspective. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the BMW Championship this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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