Bermuda HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Bermuda Championship

November 08, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.Even with the recent and perplexing additions of 2 top 50 players in the world to this event, we still are going to see one of the lowest ranked field strengths for a PGA Tour event in some time this week for the Bermuda Championship. Port Royal Golf Course has now been the annual host for a number of years and despite being the shortest course in terms of distance played all year on Tour, we know the wind can wreak absolute havoc at times. For the full Rundown on course setup, the field, and historical data over the years, make sure to read the Rundown here.Here are my some of my notes and things to keep in mind this week:

  • Harder than average to hit fairways, but the overall GIR% numbers are better than Tour average. Green sizes are large in size and GIR rates can near 70%.

  • No matter if you are a big hitter or short knocker, you will be hitting a ton more wedges into greens here than your typical PGA Tour event.

  • Challenging narrow fairways with substantial penalty for a big miss will put a players plan and execution with decision making to the test. A good caddie/player team is important.

  • Pay close attention to the wind reports, the less wind we see makes this much easier to hone in on a skill set and predictability.

  • Bermuda grass everywhere. The greens are slower than normal and less undulation than normal given the windy conditions. Grainy bermuda green surfaces.

  • Personally, I try to stay away with betting and playing guys in the Fall swing who just show up for one event (ex. Adam Scott). I think their intentions are good but the rust is real and proven historically and would much rather play the guys who have substantial reps under their belt during this portion of the season.

  • Several holes with decent elevation change and the par 3's become extremely challenging if the wind is gusting and unpredictable. Par 3 scoring will be key.

  • It's a huge plus if a player has the ability to take some spin off their wedges and flight the ball low under the wind. Not a great place for a high ball wedge player to show up.

  • SG: Around the Green gets a bump in importance with windy conditions as greens will be missed and scoring will be more difficult.

  • The more the weather becomes a factor, the more you can be aggressive in fading chalk. I'd hesitate to make any lineups until we have a good understanding off tee waves and possible weather draw advantages later in the week.

Data Golf Radar Plot for Port Royal:DataGolf OPTIMAL LINEUP:Ghim, Smalley, Hubbard, B. Wu, Whaley, Dunlap

Click HERE to watch the highlights from this week's podcasts featured on GolfPass

1. Short term strokes gained approach Leaders (L24)  : 1. Glover  2. Knox  3. Smalley  4. Moore  5. Lower  6. Hubbard  7. Roy  8. Griffin  9. Potter Jr  10. Ghim2. SG; Ballstriking Leaders on courses under 7200 yards total : 1. List  2. Stanley  3. Smalley  4. B Wu  5. Hoffman  6. Roy  7. Baker  8. Percy  9. Yu  10. Glover3. Leaders in SG; Putting on Slow Bermuda Grass Greens :  1. Noh  2. Crane  3. Kraft  4. Merritt  5. Werenski  6. Griffin  7. Trainer  8. Whaley  9. Higgs  10. Herbert4. Leaders in proximity gained from 75-150 yards (WedgeSZN) on Bermuda last 24 rounds:  1. Todd  2. W. Bryan  3. Crane  4. Riley  5. Kodaira  6. Knox  7. Cook  8. Lipsky  9. Uresti  10. McNeil5. Par 3 efficiency over the last 36 rounds played Leaders : 1.McGirt  2. McGreevy  3. Todd  4. baker  5. Kuest  6. Stuard  7. Novak  8. Stroud  9. Kang  10. Echavarria6. Leaders in strokes gained TOTAL at Port Royal: 1. Gay  2. Todd  3. Herbert  4. Detry  5. Lower  6. Cink  7. Knox  8. Griffin  9. Malnati  10. Yu7. Data Golf Top 10 in DFS Value based on a function of projected points and salary: 1. Smalley  2. Dunlap  3. Hubbard  4. Ghim  5. B Wu  6. Riley  7. Novak  8. D Wu  9. Smotherman  10. Glover8. Top 10 in SG; ARG on Bermuda Grass last 36 rounds: 1. Barnes  2. Griffin  3. Goya  4. Todd  5. Byrd  6. McGirt  7. Uresti  8. Schwab  9. Gay  10. Piercy9. Top to in DataGolf Adjusted Course fit vs. Expecation min 8 rounds:  1. Gay  2. Malnati  3. Lower  4. OHair  5. Detry  6. Points  7. Hearn  8. Crane  9. Watney  10. Noh10. Top 10 in Greens in Regulation Percentage over the last 36 rounds playted: 1. Dou  2. Ghim  3. Schmid  4. Glover  5. Laird  6. Knox  7. Zhang  8. Goya  9. Redman  10. Merritt

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