Bermuda CB 23

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Quick note on the card. I had Ramey on the card, but Chad Ramey just WD'd. I'd take his bet and put it on Vince Whaley at 90/1 on DraftKings or PointsBet

Using the Southampton Bermuda station in Windfinder, it looks like we are going to have pretty different playing conditions on Thursday and Friday. That said, not sure it amount to a wave advantage as it seems pretty consistent from morning to afternoon.For final thoughts on waves, weather, and more...make sure to join the LIVE chat tonight starting around 9 PM ET in the NUT HUT.

Mark Hubbard -130 ($8,800) vs. Lucas Glover +110 ($9,500)

We saw a big swing in the sharp market making books on this matchup. As of now, Hubbard who is $700 cheaper in DFS has overtaken Glover as the head to head favorite in this individual matchup.Both players have been two of the sharper guys in the field with their approach play, particularly with their wedges over the last 30 rounds played. Hubbard also appears to have a slight advantage in terms of ownership where we project him to come in around 13-14% owned while Glover is eating up a solid 17-18% ownership.Interestingly, Glover opened as a favorite in this matchup at -120 before sharp bettors came to the counter and moved the line substantially with bets on Hubbard into the position where it now has settled.

Martin Laird -126 ($7,500) vs. Marty Dou +104 ($7,500)

In our second matchup, we have two players at the exact same DFS Price matched up in a head to head. We like to take a look at how the odds have shifted to locate where the sharp money is.Well, it's been pretty one sided on Marty Laird. This matchup originally opened even before Laird was bet up to his current price of -126. Laird has had much better finishes in the Fall swing thus far but something about Dou in the Caribbean coast has always clicked.It's likely that Laird, the favorite in this matchup, will be lesser owned this week which could present an opportunity in DFS if you want to follow the sharp dollars coming in. Both guys should be sub 8% total. 

Alex Smalley -115 ($8,900) vs. Akshay Bhatia -105 ($10,000)

You can grab over $1,000 in savings for DFS lineups and still have the favorite in the head to head matchup. It presents an interesting opportunity that we always like to look more into.Everyone seems a bit down on Akshay at the moment, even despite his win earlier this year and a top 10 finish last week at the WWT Championship. Smalley on the other hand we have not seen in a few weeks, but comes to Bermuda with excellent course history the previous two years.Both players are projected to be around 20% owned this week so there is not a great ownership advantage, but certainly a leverage position with the much cheaper who is a head to head favorite here.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. We faded the top owned and top priced player last week when we went Fade on Ludvig. I would call it a modest success, he did end up backdooring a top 10 after being in 50th place after the first two days. All in all, I think it was the right move and we are right back at it this week trying find a candidate for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal.There is a certain unpredictability that goes hand in hand with this event. The coastal elements, out-of-nowhere gusts of wind, and extremely narrow fairways that require a player to utilize proper decision making and commitment off the tee. Heck, there may be less total acreage on this entire island than there was on those landing pad fairways in Cabo last week!The method I am deploying this week is putting a bit less focus on strokes gained data and recent stats, and more on the eyeball test and situational narratives. We've now had back to back events with zero strokes gained data, so this combined with an offseason schedule has me less focused on diving deep into the recent form data.Events like this have heightened importance for those players on the hunt for securing their position in fields later in the season and attempting to gain entry into the elevated series. On the same token, I somewhat question the preparation and focus for those players who have already secured their position in the top 50 and showing up here for seemingly little reason. One of those guys is going to be the player that I am fading this week...When relying less on stats, I tend to look more into where the sharp money is at this week. At a sharp offshore market making books, the bettors early this week took pretty substantial positions in the matchup markets against a certain player with a recent win on their resume. I tend to agree with these bettors on this occasion, as I think many are clinging to that recent win and a stat profile that may be less relevant today than it was 2-3 months ago.Think about the schedule, that win for this player came 3 months ago. During the middle of the PGA Tour season, say in the late spring, are we going to be giving a player extra credit for a win 3 months ago? Probably not, at least not as much because we would have seen them play probably 6-8 events since that time. In this instance, with a lack of events and offseason mode, all that data is showing up under super recent form.I've shortened my profile in terms of skillset to basically honing in on how this player is playing over the last 6 weeks. Safe to say, it's changed a bit. They have only played one event since August, and it resulted in a weak T59 finish with a field strength that should have definitely yielded this player better results. I want to see REPS in the fall, tournaments played, positive results, etc especially if I am going to click a player around 20% owned.Lastly, if the wind lies down this week, this place becomes a total wedge and putting contest. This player I have selected ranks 115th in the field in Bermuda grass putting on slow greens, and 98th in the field in proximity gained from inside of 125 yards. They have not been consistent or proficient with their wedges and haven't made putts with these filters. It's time to fade and move on. Finally, they did play this event last season so should be familiar, but they finished 63rd. Yikes.Why are you here Lucas Glover? I know you don't enjoy gaining any strokes gained:Home life so that must be the reason but you sir, are the this week's Chalk Bomb! At 18% owned and $9,500, we are going to fade this week! 

Maybe pineapple fans don't want pizza under their precious pineapples either. I just learned that Paprika is simply dried and crushed red bell peppers. I mean, I don't know why I thought there was a Paprika tree somewhere. If there's anything that just never needs technological innovation, it's the popsicle stick. The most punishing fine any homeowners association should ever have in their bylaws needs to be putting up holiday decorations too early. Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the Butter Championship in the Bermuda Triangle. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!