Bermuda 21 Chalk Bomb

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As you can see, this week is gonna be in-ter-es-ting! The first 2 rounds are shaping up to be quite windy for everyone as the course should play tougher than usual. All in all, the 2 days aren't that different, but as it stands today at 1pmET, you could give a slight edge to the PM/AM wave. Friday's weather is projected almost exactly the same throughout the day as the late guys on Thursday could get slightly lower wind totals. However, it's all close enough and will make ball striking and scrambling more important. When all else is equal, the Friday AM guys tend to have an advantage anyway getting the 2nd round out of the way before more green surface traffic has a chance to wreak havoc late on Friday.If you're building a lot of lineups, then stack both waves and mix some stacks. If you're not playing more than 15 or 20 different lineups, then it doesn't appear to matter all that much as of now. Both days will prove to be a test for all 127 (for now) players. 

Knox -130 vs. Willett -102

This line really caught my attention as Knox is a big favorite, but he's $1600 cheaper on DK. He's also the highest projected owned golfer in the field as of now at 24% in DFS. Obviously, Knox has some real value at that price given his style of play and T16 and T11 past record at Port Royal. However, when this line opened, Willett was a -124 favorite over Knox! So the line has completely flipped since Monday. What's also really interesting is that Scott Stallings (-119) is a slight favorite to Knox (-111) in H2Hs. Now, I would argue that Willett arrives in better form having just won the Alfred Dunhill Links less than a month ago and followed up with a T21 at The Shriners. Willett and Knox are both great wind players that should thrive this week. However, I think in this terrible field, any projected chalk is worthy of a fade for ownership leverage since nobody in this field is head & shoulders above the rest. For that reason, I think I'm out on 24% Knox, but may be very "IN" on Danny Willett at less than 7%. While you're paying more, I'd argue Willett has better upside, while both have plenty potential to completely shit their Butterfield Bermuda pants.

Reed -114 vs. Power -103

What to do with P. Reed this week...? That's the big question. Is he healthy? Can he hit a damn fairway? While he's projected around 20% (top 5 highest) in the DFS world, the books don't seem to have much faith. This line against Power opened at even money, but Reed's pulled away slightly. He also opened as a plus money dog to Chad Ramey, but that line has flipped as well as he's now -125 against Ramey. He's a dog to Mito, C Bez and Fitzpatrick as well. In his 2 events this season, he's gone MC at the Shriners and basically DFL at the CJ Cup while losing 6.8 strokes OTT, 6.3 strokes APP, and 2.1 strokes ATG. No. Bueno. He's also struggled with the driving accuracy long before that...In his last 6 events, he's lost 12 Fairways Gained (according to FNGC)...that's nuts. He's also lost strokes around the green in 3 of his last 4 events. He just seems off.

Jaeger +102 vs. Rai -119

I'm a little surprised by how much the books seem to hate Jaeger this week on a track that doesn't demand distance and with the weather rewarding grindy, up and down play. Jaeger opened as a dog in all 5 H2Hs this week and currently is only a narrow favorite against Bramlett. But Rai being a massive favorite and $1100 cheaper on DK made me scratch my head a little. Neither players look to be highly owned with Jaeger coming in around 10% and Rai sub 5 probably. I just think taking the plus money in this matchup is the way to go. Jaeger's a worldwide player, comfy in the wind, comfy on short tracks, and he's been one of the best players around the greens and putting on the KFT in the last 2 years. I just think the weather makes this even more attractive Jaeger.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

We're back in business after last week's CB was 23% owned and finished T54 out of 70! Let's keep it moving this week in a field weaker than the Island Boy's freestyle skillz.When I say that I'm willing to fade anyone in this field at inflated ownership...I mean the favorite to win at 25% projected ownership. Fitzpatrick is the odds on favorite to win and the most expensive player in the field at $11K on DraftKings. Yea...so he won the Andulucia Masters in Spain a few weeks ago. I don't care. Fitz would need to finish in the top 5 to 7 in terms of DK Points scored to be worth the cash. I see this event having a ton of variance given the weather, the fact that many players won't get to see much of the course before Thursday given travel problems on Monday, brutal conditions on Tuesday and the course being closed today. This is Matt's first time at Port Royal. He's got the AM/PM wave...which isn't terrible, but it's not my preferred stack at the moment.He's got 22% implied odds of finishing Top 5 according to data golf. He's a good player. This field is garbage. He's just not the no brainer studly must play in a dog shit field. If it were Rahm or Morikawa...then sure, but I'm not following the masses at 25-30% on a player of Fitz's calibur in a highly variable tournament.  Matthew Thomas Fitzpatrick (good English name there, huh)at 25% projected ownership, you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I would beat the shit out of both Island Boys (at the same time).This tournament/field is a shit show. Very few studs, no shot link, small DK contests & nobody listens to our show on week's like this.That's it. I'm grumpy. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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