The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 Chalk 💣

So here’s the deal with betting this week for me…I’ve fired on the list above at large #’s in an event with loads of variance given all that’s going on. However, I’ve still only used about 3.6 of my typical 5 units on outrights. I’m saving some for some live firing after round 2 and 3. I would advise you do the same.

This weather, the new format, the wet POA, etc just add too much variance to bet the favorites (who most choose to skip this event every year) or blow all your units too early and get screwed by the weather.

So much for California sunshine. It looks like we’re finally getting away from ‘dome golf’ over a month into the new season with some potentially WILD weather at Pebble Beach. An early look at the forecast shows some rain and a chance for massive winds over the weekend with gusts potentially over 60 mph at some points Saturday night. While the pros certainly won’t play in winds that high, we can expect breezy conditions to play a factor this week.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Matt Fitzpatrick -117 ($8200) vs. Sam Burns -104 ($8900)

We start with some disparity in the $8k range as Fitz is a notable favorite over Slammin Sammy Burns in the 72-hole head-to-head markets despite the Englishman’s cheaper DFS price.

This could be due to a difference in previous experience at Pebble Beach. Making his fifth start here, Fitzpatrick has a complicated relationship with this event with two MCs and a T6 in 2022. Burns on the other hand has just one prior start — a T39 back in 2021.

Early ownership projections for these two agree with the betting odds. Our Nut Hut data shows Fitzpatrick will be around 12% owned compared to 8% for Burns. The Englishman will be a popular play in this price range, but he might just be worth the chalk this week.

Eric Cole -114 ($7300) vs. Sahith Theegala -106 ($7900)

Prior to a MC at the Farmers last week, Eric Cole was on a remarkably consistent run of six-straight top-25 finishes dating back to last fall, and the sharps are banking on that consistency compared to Theegala’s complete lack thereof.

Both guys have just one prior start at Pebble with the advantage going to Cole thanks to a T15 in this event last year. Sahith’s last start game in 2022 when he made the weekend but not the final round cut while losing over a stroke-and-a-half on the greens.

The head-to-head odds are pretty much even, but a $600 difference in DFS price might just give the edge to Cole when building your lineups. However, we should note that Cole’s ownership percentage (16.2%) is expected to be over double that of Theegala (7%).

Cam Davis -130 ($6700) vs. Nick Taylor +100 ($7200)

Lastly, we turn our attention to the cheaper DFS options where Cam Davis is a big favorite over Nick Taylor despite a $500 difference at DraftKings.

Each has plenty of experience at Pebble with 13 starts between them, but you could argue that nobody loves this event more than Nick Taylor. He hasn’t missed the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2014, and his four top-20 finishes include a win in 2020.

Neither player projects to be a chalky DFS play this week with Taylor trending around 8.6% and Davis closer to 7%. So whether you side with the sharps or the previous results, both of these guys could be solid low-salary options this week.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

After a tough couple of weeks, we (sort of) stopped the bleeding with a decent Chalk Bomb at the Farmers. While Ludvig Aberg did rally with his best finish of the 2024 season so far, his 88% return on points-to-price shows you were just fine with or without him, and we’re counting that as a win! Sometimes you just need to see one go in…

So now we’re onto the biggest event of the young season with a stacked field including several European studs returning Stateside after some time on the DP World Tour including Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Tommy Fleetwood. A limited, 80-man field also means higher than average ownership percentages across the board, so there’s no shortage of big names who meet the 15% or higher threshold for consideration as the Chalk Bomb.

Like seemingly every event so far in 2024, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be contested across multiple layouts: Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach Golf Links. So we start with our friends at Bet the Number and their course-specific model to identify some key traits we want to target or fade this week.

As one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR schedule, we know Pebble is far from a bomber’s paradise. Add the high winds expected throughout the week, and success off the tee will be just as much about managing ball flight and playing point-to-point as raw power.

While this week’s Chalk Bomb certainly doesn’t need to nuke it off the tee to win, the abundance of less-than-driver holes at Pebble will go a long way to negating his strength off the tee.

While driving distance won’t be as big of a factor, putting — specifically on Poa — certainly will be. The analysts at BTN have SG: Putting on Poa as one of the key indicators of success this week, so it’s no surprise to see the Chalk Bomb doesn't quite hold up in that category. Across his last 16 rounds on Poa, this player ranks 61st in the field in SG: Putting. Sixty-first… in a field of 80…

So we’ve looked at driving and putting, but what about approach play? How does our Chalk Bomb stack up there?

A look at the data shows that the short and long-range yardage buckets are more important at Pebble compared to the mid-range, and that’s bad news for our guy. While this player does rank 18th in the field in SG: APP over his last 40 rounds, he’s 49th from 90-130 yards and 62nd from 175-225 yards.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, I’m fading this week’s Chalk Bomb because of his sky-high DFS pricing relative to the rest of the field. As the most expensive player on the tee sheet, you NEED a top-10 finish at the very least to get any sort of return on investment. And yet, this player is a significant underdog in head-to-head markets versus a guy like Scottie Scheffler.

Throw in the wacky weather and subsequent variance that usually comes with it, and it might not be a bad idea to fade the big names altogether. This guy is one of my favorite players and one that I’ll have on the card come Major Season. But this week, at a projected 18% according to our DISCORD aggregated ownership projections, Rory McIlroy… You are the Chalk Bomb!

I wonder how much mold was eaten before people finally figured out cheese.

I’ve never really thought about whether or not onions actually have any health benefits.

At some point so many people were putting all their eggs in one basket someone had to say enough is enough. We really shouldn’t put all our eggs in one basket. Then a saying was born.

I can’t stand being at a work function or conference and being forced to fill out and wear one of those sticker name tags. Even though it’s probably helpful because I don’t know a single person there.

Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy what looks like carnage this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!