AT&T Pro Am 22 Chalk Bomb

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As of Wednesday at noon, there does not appear to be a significant weather advantage yet again this week on the PGA TOUR. It's going to be pretty cool and dry all week with highs in the upper 50s. Tee times are off between 830 and 1045 local time for the first 3 rounds as everyone is so scattered so while the later tee times could see temps increase a few degrees...it's not worth taking into account for your handicapping process.If you really wanted to get picky, as of know Saturday looks to have the highest winds tapping out at a wimpy 10mph (nothing to these guys). So, if you just had 2 guys to pick between and literally couldn't come up with 1 other reason to pick a guy, then I'd take the guy NOT playing Monterey Peninsula on Saturday. You've got to get your birdies on MP. 

Palmer -133 vs. C Bez +114

After looking across 3 different books, I can't find a matchup where Palmer isn't the favorite and the line is moving his direction. It seems the big bettors are believing Mr. Palmer's recent form over his record here at Pebble Beach. It's not like he doesn't have experience here. He's played PB a ton. He's just never finished inside the top 20. When he arrived at PB the last 2 attempts, his form/ball striking was much worse than it's looked of late. 

Poa's not his worst surface, he hits it well in the wind (if we have any), and he's gained 10.6 strokes ball striking in just 2 events in 2022. He's only projected around 7-10%.

He's a favorite over C Bez, Mito, Merritt, and Harman.

Streelman -120 vs. Kisner -101

While Streelman is a favorite over Kisner on our most trusted H2H sportsbook, he's a coin flip with Kisner on DK Sportsbook and the lines on either book haven't budged. Meanwhile, he's a pretty big underdog in every matchup you can find on Streels. 

He's a big plus money dog to Fitzpatrick and Lanto. It seems the books don't care too much about course history this week given Palmer and Streelman's analysis and line setting/movement. 

However, I'd take Streels over Kisner, Fitz and Lanto with these H2H lines. His record here is nearly unmatched outside of Jason Day. He LOVES this event. He's built for a track like this. And, he's a multiple time PGA TOUR winner. Remember when Cink and CH3 a couple of years ago hadn't won in like a decade and then all of a sudden...they did!

Streelman's ownership in DFS is projected around 14-17% while Fitzpatrick and Kisner are both under 9% everywhere you look. Griffin is about the same as Streels. I just don't think 14 or 15% is too much chalk for Streels. I'll bite.

Mito +120 vs. Griffin -145

Another name that every book hates this week is coming in around 15% in GPP projections, Mito Pereira. Mito is a ball striking fool. He's seemingly a stud from what we've seen thus far. I didn't talk him up a ton on the podcast given this is his first trip around PB and I believe in the experience/course history narrative.

But he is a massive underdog across all books to Griffin, Hughes, McNealy, and Palmer. All the lines opened and remain in favor of any of those guys not named, Mito. 

We've seen him in 1 event in 2022, and it was a solid T25 last week at the Farmers where he gained 3.7 on SG: Approach to pick up where he left off in 2021. This will be his 14th start on the PGA TOUR since his 3 win battlefield exemption last summer on the KFT. He's only missed 3 cuts and racked up three top 6 finishes. He can play. He played college golf at Texas Tech and until last week, we hadn't seen him deal with Poa greens so not sure how much experience he's had on them. Didn't hurt him last week as he gained over 2 strokes on the field.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

And the Chalk Bomb continues to roll as Cam Davis played like wet ass last week. Now, he ended up being lower than projected, but this is a guessing game and nobody I know of has perfected the art of projecting GPP ownership in golf. Nonetheless, he sucked. Let's keep it moving.This was a tough week for as I was really only choosing from 4 guys that would without a doubt fit the "chalk" criteria even if their ownership dropped a little. Justin Rose is projected to finish in the top 5 highest owned players across 3 different trusted ownership sites. Rosie had a good week at the Farmers finishing 6th and looking very solid tee to green. But, let's be honest, Rose hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency lately. He's played 21 events since the start of 2021 and he's got a helping of top 10 finishes, but a ton of T40s and worse among them. He had 3 legitimate PGA TOUR, full field top 10s since 1/21. At his ownership, and price of $9.6K on DK, you'll need Rose to finish in the top 10-12 DraftKings point scorers on a course he's very unfamiliar with. He's played the Farmers twice (2017 & 2016) in his near 20 year PGA TOUR career finishing 39th and 6th. He did finish 3rd here at the US Open in 2019, but it's a much different event for the Farmers in February. Poa is historically his worst putting surface, and the lack of interest in playing the Farmers over the last 4 years and inexperience around the 3 tracks is enough for me to fade.I'm not ballsy enough to fade Cantlay the way he's playing, and with Berger still playing just fine over the weekend at the Farmers...I'm not sure I'm terribly worried about this "injury." By process of elimination this week, I'm landing on an inconsistent Rose with more to be desired in terms of experience around these courses. At 18% (Top 5 highest) projected ownership, Justin Peter Rose...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

So yesterday marked the Chinese New Year. It's the year of the Tiger by the way. That said I have some thoughts on Chinese food. First off, if your establishment has crappy egg rolls and fried rice I'm out. I can't be having a soggy egg roll or that yellowish looking fried rice. No sir, not me. What do we think about Mall Chinese food? I'm conflicted. It's basically hit or miss but I'm not afraid to dive in and try it every now and then.  

Alright folks! That’s all I got. Enjoy watching the Amateurs shank it all over the place at iconic Pebble Beach and good luck with your lineups and bets. Bome! DB Here...Pat really mailed this Pontificate performance in...I'm sorry on our behalf.

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