A Field So Bad Even Sungjae Turned His Nose Up

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

This was already setup to be a funky week pre-DJ WD, but without the guy that was being given implied odds to win the event at 25% (which is a HUGE #) it makes the game theory discussion all the more fun. Many guys in the field are seeing season-high DFS (or in some cases multi-year) price increases. Casey 10.4, Spieth 9.7, Molinari 9.3, Streelman 8.9, the corpse of Phil back at 8.6...the list goes on & on. On top of that, we've got maybe the largest weather impact I can remember in quite some time. Check out this gnarly weekend forecast, gonna be absolute carnage: 

So a couple takeaways from this. 1. High Wind =more randomness 2. I believe the draw that will have an edge (would guess 1 stroke, but could be as high as 2 strokes) are the Thursday Pebble guys. Why? Last year was a great example. Over the first 3 rounds, the Spyglass scoring average was 72.87, while Pebble played under par. BUT, if you remember from last year, the wind picked up on Sunday, which ballooned scoring to a full 2.4 strokes OVER par at Pebble. And as you can see from above, Thursday looks to be quite nice as far as wind (so assume the scoring will be under par at Pebble), then it picks up quite a bit on Friday (so assume Pebble will play around par or slightly over par). 3. If the top 5-6 guys fail, you've got a field full of 0.5-1.5% implied win odds pre-tourney that are LIVE. It would not shock me at all to see another Teddy P type player win this week, especially when you consider #1. 

(Image from DataGolf) Pebble is a no doubt less than driver course. Over the last 4 years it's ranked dead last in average driving distance at 267 yards! Pat could almost keep up with the boys this week! Pebble is of course also famous for its very small greens which you can see in the data above. The average GIR% is 62 (66 tour average), while the average proximity to the hole is 26.3 feet (vs. 28.75 tour average). So what's the approach for betting & DFS? Scrambling & bogey avoidance will be much more important this week vs. the last couple weeks. Because the greens are smaller that equals fewer putts for everyone, so good putters have a slightly less advantage than they otherwise would.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Berger vs. Cantlay

Berger +121 vs. Cantlay -142

While Berger is the H2H dog, there's actually DFS value to be found on him. At -142 the implied odds that Cantlay wins the matchup are 58.68%, considering he's $1200 more expensive, that's not a huge edge. Just like Hideki 2 weeks ago, we outlined last week that Berger's 'good' course history at Scottsdale was largely a mirage. The missed cut shouldn't have been that surprising, and he now moves to a course that is suited pretty well for his game. Of everyone 8k & up, Berger has the highest driving accuracy %, and in 3 tries has hit no less than 71% of his fairways at Pebble. He's one of the best poa putters in the field, plays well when the tough gets going, and has one of the largest positive wind splits in the field. Not to poo poo on Cantlay's profile, he shares several of the same positive splits. My single largest concern is that Patrick is coming off a performance that saw him gain 6.6 strokes putting, a new career-high. Every single time in his career that he's gained more than 4 strokes putting, he's gained at minimum 2.8 strokes less the following event. 

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MATCHUP 2

Streelman vs. Fowler

 Streelman -112 vs. Fowler -104

This is one of the more interesting matchups of the entire week as it's flip-flopped since Monday, with Rickie as the H2H fav at -112. I can't imagine it's public money that is pushing the line the other way with everyone & their momma touting Streelman this week. Rickie is quite the enigma with his ball-striking finally starting to come around (he had gained 3 strokes off the tee the previous 2 weeks and hit 80% of his GIR's last week) yet totaled 66 putts through 2 rounds at Scottsdale, a number that even Keegan would be ashamed of. Rickie's doesn't have any super relevant course history with 1 event in the last 9 years for a ho hum 43rd. He also owns one of the worst poa putting splits in the field. So why on Earth are the sharps backing Rickie?? One has to assume that it's largely due to his good play in tough conditions with great wind stats, (generally) elite short game, and he's on the right side of the draw. Streelman is the no doubt course horse this week. Consider these two things: 1. Since 2012, he's gained strokes on approach shots in 15 straight rounds at Pebble 2. He's gained strokes putting in 13 of those 15 rounds, impressive for someone that loses strokes putting on the whole. Streelman, unfortunately, finds himself on the wrong side of the draw this year. 

MATCHUP 3

Zalatoris vs. Speef

Zalatoris -138 vs. Speef +118

I'm sure the sportsbooks are taking all the Speef money they can handle this week with him having plus money lines against everyone around him sans Molinari. What he did last week was certainly...interesting. He lost more strokes off the tee than he had in over a year, yet gained more strokes on approach shots since the 2018 Shell (which was right before his last real flash at a major in the 2018 Masters). He also gained the 2nd most strokes putting since the Charles Schwab which was the 1st event of the restart. His course history is just as interesting, with a win & 2 other top 10's, surrounded by several other years of field average ball striking. So the million-dollar question is did he find something substantial in his iron play last week, or was it a flash in the pan? What we do know is this: you have to be in the fairways at Pebble, and even last week with less than driver he struggled to find the fairway. Poa is also his worst putting surface and plays his worst golf in windy conditions. Enough about Speef though, Willy I think will go under the radar this week due to a lack of course history (though he did hit 78% of his GIR's as an AM in 2018), and most gamers gravitating up to the guys above him with plenty of salary to spare with no DJ. Willy's ball-striking has been nothing short of elite since he stepped on the scene at last year's US Open. He's gained strokes off the tee in every single event, he's gained strokes on approach shots in every single event, and has even gained strokes around the greens in all but 1. My only real concern is that he too has struggled finding fairways recently as he's hit sub 50% in 4 straight events. 

Other interesting lines:Kirk -109 vs. Malnati -107HV3 -115 vs. McNealy -101Thompson -119 vs. Stallings +102Day -141 vs. Kim +121Tringale -132 vs. Jones +113Davis -121 vs. Streelman +103 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• This is projected to be his 2nd highest ownership week.....ever

• In his last 16 events, he has exactly 1 top 20 finish

• He's missed the cut in 4 of the last 10 events he's played

• In that same stretch, he's managed to gain greater than 1.9 strokes tee to green exactly once (last week)

• This will be his 2nd highest DFS price in 3 years

• He's a head to head underdog against Speef

• He plays his worst golf in difficult conditions

• He's on the bad side of the draw, playing Spyglass Thursday & Pebble Friday

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 32nd in the field in DK points scored

• Despite being a poor putter, he's gained strokes putting at Pebble in 13 of his last 15 rounds

• Everyone will miss greens this week, he's gotten up & down less than 50% of the time in 5 of his last 6 events

• Since 03/2018, he's been owned >10% 19 times. He has 3 top 10's & 1 top 20. Every other time he finished 32nd or worse w/ 6 missed cuts

At 18.6% calculated ownership on Fantasy National (the highest), Kevin Streelman, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I made a mistake I will never make again this week. I bought a cheap toothbrush at the grocery store. Don’t ever do this ok. It has a skinny, tiny little handle that slips all around in your hands and the bristles are like a brillo pads. If you want to make it a great day. Don’t buy a cheap ass toothbrush.

Here’s another thing I did this week I’ve never done before. Blew up a microwave. Now, it didn’t start a fire or anything (well, it did, but just a tiny one inside the microwave, no big deal), but it was a scary few seconds. It’s sort of like getting electrocuted. Your eyes are seeing it happening and you want to just turn off the microwave, but your mind is frozen, wondering what to do. Anyway. That f’n microwave was apparently $1000 dollars. Who the F puts a $1000 dollar microwave in their house? I hope it’s under warranty.

New addition to Pontificate this week. I’m going with a Nut Hut members pontificate. The one caveat though is they must align with my thought process. This week we have two thanks to a Nut Hut OG, Marcus Griffin:

Do women realize how chivalrous we are by using only the sound of our stream to navigate to the edge of the bowl and avoid the louder sound of pissing directly into mid-toilet bowl? This is all done in pitch black dark, only using sound and sheer instinct to navigate the bathroom. Do we miss sometimes? Sure, but It’s because we care and don’t want to wake our slumbering partner.

Also, I hate it when someone asks me to smell something. You f’n smell it. Why is my sense of smell needed to validate yours?

Alright, that’s all I got for this week folks! Enjoy the AT&T No-Am at iconic and beautiful Pebble Beach this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!