This Week's Tour Stop AT&T Pro Am @ Pebble Beach 

The Counterintuitive Course Fit

Several weird things about this week. The first thing being, I don't remember the last time the top 2 players made up 23.4% of the total win equity (Cantlay & DJ). In my mind this week they are the top 2 guys, maybe throw Casey in there as well, & then a HUGE dropoff to that next tier. I know someone had to be there this week, but the value in the 10.3k-9k is very very poor (& it's usually the BEST value area). The second weird thing is that the course fit for basically all 3 of these courses is almost the exact opposite of what you would think. Driving distance was far & away the best metric I looked at, but it does make some sense if you think about it. It's a pro-am, which means the rough is short, and the pins are generally not tucked away. For the big hitters, you can basically just #Bomb&Findit while hitting a ton of short wedges into pins in the center of the green. Fairways gained actually has a NEGATIVE correlation to success here as seen below:

I know everyone hates the multi-course weeks, but this one should have a definitive weather edge that we can exploit. In 2018 when the weather started nice & got worse as the weekend went on, this was the scoring averages to par on all 3 courses:

R1

-1.442 = MPCC

-0.769 = Spyglass Hill

-0.692 = Pebble Beach

R2

-1.231 = MPCC

-0.686 = Spyglass Hill

+0.404 = Pebble Beach

R3

-0.137 = MPCC

+0.308 = Pebble Beach

+0.804 = Spyglass Hill

What does it mean? Given the nature of DK scoring & that you get 3 pts for a birdie & -0.5 for a bogey, it should be pretty clear that you want to play the easiest course (MPCC) on the best weather day. Currently, the weather looks nice on Thursday & Friday, but the wind really picks up on Saturday. The guys that start the week on Pebble will play MPCC on Saturday, here is a quick list of the relevant guys: Glover, Stuard, Kuch, Fitz, Taylor, HV3, Landry, Kirk, Martin, Stallings, Holmes, Watney, Jones, Armour, Lebioda, Norlander.

MATCHUP 1

Cantlay vs. Casey

I would guess that these two will most likely be the highest owned guys on the board this week. I wanted to highlight the head to head price to illustrate what I meant earlier about the dropoff from the top 2 guys. Cantlay is expected to win the matchup almost 62% of the time against Casey. Casey is a pickem against Day directly under him who has been sneaky bad the last 6 months (did you know that his (Day's) 16th place finish at the Farmers was his best finish since June of 2019?) Anyways Casey is #1 in proximity in the 2 main approach shot buckets (Cantlay is #12), and both have sneaky good course history as far as historical GIR% is concerned (I would argue even better than DJ). You do get $400 in savings if you opt for Casey this week, but his 'to win' odds are exactly half that of Cantlay, give me the cantaloupe. 

MATCHUP 2

Snedeker vs. Mickelson

When it starts to go, life can come at you fast. That's what Phil is starting to find out at 50, as he's staved off father time for longer than most. I was actually surprised to see that his strokes gained off the tee had changed very little from 2012 to now, basically breaking even every year. It's his approach game & putting that used* to be top 10 on tour, but for the entire year of 2019 he was break even on both of those as well (in 2018 he gained over half a stroke PER round on the field in both categories). We only have 5 measured rounds in 2020 on Phil, but in those 5 rounds, his profile looks very similar to last year. Sneds, on the other hand, has been playing quite well really since the PGA last year. He's always a tough guy for me to pull the trigger on because you basically need him to gain at least 4-5 strokes putting for the event to have a chance. This will also be his 2nd highest price since the beginning of 2019, & like I said above, it's just a really poor value when you can get Casey or Cantlay for $400 or $800 more. 

MATCHUP 3

Stallings vs. Rodgers

I wanted to highlight these 2 because I've seen quite a bit of chatter on both, & I'm equally torn on both. Golfer turned fitness trainer Scott Stallings might be in the best shape of his life, but it certainly hasn't translated into more success on the course. This was his high water mark in 2019 finishing 3rd, & as you'll see from the 10 facts he also leads in the field in GIR% at his event (& was the strokes gained T2G leader last year). He's been positive T2G in his 1st 2 start of 2020, and his best putting surface is poa. The closer I looked at Rodgers, the more he looks like fools gold to me. He gained 6 strokes off the tee last week, easily a career-high. He's lost strokes on approach shots in 13 of his last 14 events (though again, he *only* lost .7 strokes last week), and he's gained 17.3 strokes putting his last 4 events. He did finish 8th here 2 years ago, but again that was mainly due to him gaining almost 6 strokes putting. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Let's talk weather. THERE IS AN EDGE THIS WEEK! The first 3 days is what we're focusing on given the course rotation. Sunday looks (for now) to be a tough day with very little birdie opportunities and the wind whipping all day more so than any other day. Thursday, Friday and Saturday all will present temps between 50-55 degrees with no rain. Thursday and Friday winds will be around 6-10mph all day. However, Saturday afternoon looks like sustained winds between 12-15mph and gusts up to 18mph. Keep in mind these are historically 5 to 6 hour rounds with the pro am format and tee times are from 8am to 1015am each of the first 3 days. Refer a few paragraphs ups to see our thoughts on this impact and why you want your guys playing Monterey either Thursday or Friday! Also...click here to join "Goalby's Nut Hut" because we got some great Caddie insight going out in the chat room tonight about conditions and what's important here this week.

Through 13 Weeks: Spent $650 / Won $1250 / Up 60 unitsFirst Round LeaderJJ Spaun (55/1)_$10Outright WinnerKang (100/1)_$8, Long (100/1)_$7, Wise (140/1)_$5, Tringale (175/1)_$5,Cappelen (200/1)_$5, Redman (250/1)_$5, Spaun (250/1)_$5

All of these guys either start on MP or Spyglass on Thursday morning...meaning they'll play MP on either Thursday or Friday to take advantage of the best scoring conditions. Spaun starts on MP Thursday and has been striking his balls rather splendidly of late. Plus, he's a Cali guy comfortable on the West Coast! Overall, with the variability of this event, I'm banking on this being a Vaughn Taylor / Ted Potter kind of winning year as demonstrated in my faith by nothing but long shots at 100/1 or longer. We discussed Kang, Long & Tringale on the podcast this week. Cappelen is just an aggressive scorer that has been very close over the last month. Redman is a similar style to Cappelen. Wise is the one that snuck up on me today. He's a California guy comfortable in these conditions. He's a proven PGA Tour winner that hasn't been in the greatest form. He starts with MP on Thursday and he eats Par 5's for breakfast. That number is just too long to avoid for a player like Wise. Happy Betting!

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• It's his 2nd highest DK price in 2 years

• He ranks 115th in the field in the 2 main approach shot buckets

• Driving distance is the #1 metric this week, this guy is #147 in the field

• In his last 50 rounds, he's 53rd in fairways gained

• While some would say he has good course history, I would say it's very volatile w/ 2 missed cuts & one more DFL after making the cut in his last 7 events here

•  His GIR hit % has dropped in 4 straight events

• His driving accuracy has dropped in 3 straight events

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 12 of his last 15 events

• His strokes gained approach are cut in half on short courses historically

• He's 104th in par 5 scoring, another key for this week

• He'd be almost a +200 underdog to someone just $800 more expensive than him

At 15.5% actual LU generated on Fantasy National (6th highest) Brandt Snedeker, your the Chalk Bomb! I will gladly accept the risk of him gaining 7-10 strokes putting this week at his 10,100 price tag. I would also gladly fade everyone coming over from Saudi, & everyone playing MP on Saturday. Godspeed!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

This is kind of morbid but just a thought that came to mind. Maybe plants are really farming us, giving us oxygen until we eventually expire and turn into mulch which they can consume.

Why is it so hard for people to park their cars in between two straight lines? Drives me crazy. Also, is it too much to ask for architects and developers of parking garages to just add maybe a couple more feet of clearance? I mean my god it’s unnecessarily tight in those buildings. Do better architect people, you’re scaring the shit out of us truck and SUV owners.

Do golf balls decompose? If so I wonder how long it takes? People want to put all the focus on this global warming stuff but we might have us an environmental golf ball disaster on the horizon if we’re not careful. Hell, I know I’m losing them at an alarming rate.

That’s all I got folks. Enjoy the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's AT&T (remember we only get SG data for 2 of the 4 rounds):

1. Stallings 2. Mickelson 3. Streelman 4. Kang 5. Thompson 6. Furyk 7. Mullinax 8. Day 9. Si Woo 10. Knox

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Pebble (min 2 appearances): 

1. Stallings 2. Streelman 3. Furyk 4. Wagner 5. Hadwin 6. Casey 7. Kang 8. Grace 9. Watney 10. Armour

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Day 2. Rodgers 3. DJ 4. Snedeker 5. Kuchar 6. Berger 7. McDowell 8. Mickelson 9. Kisner 10. Ted Potter

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ fast greens, easy to hit fairways, and short courses your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1.Holmes 2. Spieth 3. Furyk 4. Casey 5. Day 6. Walker 7. Kisner 8. Reavie 9. Rodgers 10. DJ

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairways and short courses your top 10 is (min 10 rounds):

1. Reavie 2. Furyk 3. DJ 4. Cantlay 5. Taylor 6. Glover 7. Casey 8. Hovland 9. Campbell 10. Kisner

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Spaun 2. Wise 3. Long 4. Hahn 5. Knox 6. Champ 7. Brehm 8. Trahan 9. HV3 10. Homa

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at the AT&T, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Kuchar 2. Hovland 3. DJ 4. Chappell 5. Knox 6. Hahn 7. Norlander 8. Fitzpatrick 9. Jones 10. Day

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 100-125 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Casey 2. Spaun 3. Furyk 4. Reavie 5. HV3 6. Teater 7. Homa 8. Hoge 9. Stuard 10. Armour (next 2 are Grace & Cantlay)

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Walker 2. McNealy 3. Homa 4. Watney 5. Martin 6. Gligic 7. Bramlett 8. Hahn 9. Hoge 10. Redman

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Hoge 2. Furyk 3. Na 4. Piercy 5. Hadwin 6. Glover 7. Kitayama 8. Lashley 9. Hovland 10. Higgs

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