The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 Chalk 💣

After a decent amount of rainfall early in the week, it looks like we’ll get a slight reprieve on Thursday before more weather rolls in for the second round. As of now, there doesn’t seem to be much of a wave advantage with higher winds expected throughout the day on Friday, but be sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the weekend.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Cameron Young -121 ($8700) vs. Justin Thomas -101 ($9000)

Another signature event means more big names at lower prices this week, and we begin with a nice matchup in the high $8k range where Cam Young is a big favorite according to the sharp books in a 72-hole matchup against Justin Thomas.

You would think JT would have the experience advantage over Cam given the latter’s relatively young age, but both players have made just two prior starts at Bay Hill. Thomas finished T49 here in 2015 before a T21 effort last year. Young on the other hand has played this event each of the last two seasons going T13 and T10.

Looking at ownership projections, Cam is a much chalkier play at over 20% projected DFS ownership according to our Nut Hut data available in the Discord — while JT is trending around 14%.

Ben An -127 ($7600) vs. Corey Conners +104 ($7800)

Taking a look at a pair of the cheaper options down in the $7k range, the sharps like Benny An in a head-to-head matchup with Corey Conners despite a $200 discount in DraftKings DFS pricing.

Both players have been around Arnie’s place a time or two with 13 appearances at the API between them over their careers. Conners has seen more success with top 25s in three straight years including a solo third in 2021, but An also strung together a pair of top-15 finishes between 2018 and 2019.

Both of these players project similarly in terms of expected DFS ownership with An at around 13% and Conners closer to 14%. So if you’re looking for a potential decision-maker in this range, perhaps following the sharps with Benny is the play.

Tom Hoge -122 ($7100) vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout +100 ($7000)

Lastly, it looks like there’s a potential edge to be had in the low-$7k range as Tom Hoge is a -122 favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Christiaan Bezuidenhout despite their almost identical DFS pricing.

There’s no real experience advantage between the two with both guys playing the API in each of the last four years. Both of them missed the cut in 2023, but Bez has the stronger resume at Bay Hill with a solo seventh in 2021 and two additional top 20s while Hoge’s best finish in five trips is a T15 in 2020.

Neither of these guys is expected to be overly popular plays this week. According to our Nut Hut DFS ownership projections, both Hoge and Bez are coming in around 7-9%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We went back to the Cam Young well last week at the Cognizant, and much like our first try at the Genesis, it didn’t quite work out. The 26-year-old finished T4 as the second-most expensive player in DFS. If you had him, it worked out alright, but you weren’t missing out if not. Unfortunately, that’s not good enough for this Chalk Bomb author, so let’s see if we can get back in the win column this week as the Tour heads North on I-95 to Orlando.

After a few less-than-signature events in a row, it’s nice to have a slew of big names atop the DFS shopping list at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Nine of the top-10 players in the OWGR are in the field this week, and we have a whopping 11 eligible Chalk Bombs with projected ownership over 15% according to our Nut Hut data available in the Discord.

To narrow it down, let’s take a look at what our friends at Bet the Number have cooked up in their course-specific model for the API. We all know Bay Hill is a challenging track that rewards power off the tee, but the BTN guys have identified a few other key statistics that might shed some light on who we can expect to go low (or high) this week.

With the course playing nearly 7,500 yards, there will be plenty of long-range approach shots for even the most powerful drivers in the field, making accuracy and skill with the woods and long irons critical this week. That’s bad news for our Chalk Bomb as he ranks DEAD LAST in the field of 68 in SG: APP from 165-235 over his last 30 rounds. As you might imagine, that also has a negative impact on his overall approach numbers heading into Bay Hill where he ranks 64th in the field in total strokes-gained on approach.

This player will hope his elite length with the driver will set him up with some shorter approaches, but only if he can find the fairway and avoid the numerous water hazards in play off the tee. Bay Hill ranks among the most difficult courses on tour concerning how many reloads we see off the tee, and this week’s Chalk Bomb tends to struggle with accuracy using the big stick. While this player ranks fourth in the field in SG: OTT in his last 24 rounds, his Driving Accuracy % is at the opposite end of the spectrum ranking 62nd in the field.

Keeping a clean scorecard will be difficult if he’s spraying it off the tee, and bogey avoidance isn’t a strength of this player to begin with. Among this week’s field, this player ranks 64th in Bogey Avoidance making worse than par on 16% of holes over his last 24 rounds.

Looking at course history, Bay Hill ranks among the most predictive layouts on tour based on prior performance, and this is yet another hole in this player’s resume. The Chalk Bomb has made just two prior starts at the API and missed the cut in both of them with rounds of 75, 79, 75 and an embarrassing 82 in the second round in 2022.

Fortunately for those who are considering playing this guy in DFS, his $6600 price tag means you might be able to afford a swing and a miss in case this guy doesn’t ‘cook’. But if you’re looking for an edge over the majority, fading this Aussie at around 16% ownership might just give you a leg up on the competition.

So without further ado, Min Woo Lee, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Nugget of Chicken sounds way less appetizing than Chicken Nugget.

Whenever I have a nightmare that wakes me up, I feel proud of my brain for being so creative.

Gumball machines are one of the few things that are inflation proof.

I don’t understand why someone even needed to come up with writing in cursive.

Alright, that’s all I got this week. Enjoy the Arnold Palmer Invitational and never forget how Arnie changed this game for the better. He was one of a kind and a great man. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!