Arnold Palmer Invitational Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Arnold Palmer Invitational Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

March 06, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bayhill 

Bay Hill, where the big game hunters come!

It's almost that time....'major' (fifth major) season is almost upon us, the days are about to get longer again (thank God! Why can't we just agree as a society to not have day light savings?) and at least here in the South this 'should' be our last week of cold weather according the people that research these things. Bay Hill is a special event because it just seems to favor the best players in the game.  My course history rankings have many of the games best at the top, Tiger, Rory, Stenson, Rose, Molinari, Day, Scott, Leishman, Fowler, etc. Just like last week, there are several things that really stand out about the course fit here: we're on bermuda for the next month basically, it's a par 72, so the guys that feed on mostly par 5's have a bigger advantage than the guys that play par 4's & 3's well. Strokes gained ball striking is more important here than both scrambling or putting due to the difficulty (not to say you still can't putt your way to a top 10, it just makes it less likely, though not as extreme as last week). The GIR % here is 4% harder than on the average tour stop, BUT driving accuracy is almost 12% higher. We know from both the data and from what players have told us, that this is a less than driver course, and your approach shots are really long into a lot of greens...making strokes gained approach even more important. The 200 yard + approach shot is key this week with over 1/3rd of your shots coming from that distance bucket. Because of those two main data points above, driving distance (or distance in general) back-tested really well, and also not surprisingly, par 5 scoring was the most important area for gaining ground on the field. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Glover vs. Oosthuizen 

Two interesting guys that are basically always under priced, and always under owned. Since the start of the wrap around season sweet Lou has had 3/4th's of his game clicking at several events, and since the CIMB owns a 5th, 29th, 3rd, 1st, 4th, MC, 25th on his record. Each week (including the week he won) one part of the game was really off, and everything else was really good. Last week it was his iron play, the week before it was his putter, the week before that it was his scrambling. He's the kind of cheap upside play that has a relatively high floor that's great for gpp's. The love Glove on the other hand has a top 20 heater going as he's 7 for his last 8 event with at least a 17th place finish. The crazy thing is that he seems to have (re) learned how to putt and chip. Since the Safeway he's been his usual dominate self tee to green, but if he's gaining strokes around the green and putting, look out boys! Did yall know that during a stretch from 2013-2015, love glove lost strokes putting in 51 of 52 straight events....that's almost mathematically impossible. Fast forward to a year ago this week, and he's gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 14 events. 

MATCHUP 2

Kokrak vs Kim

Kokrak will be relatively chalky this week, but I'm ok with it. He's in the best form he's had in quite some time, his tee to green game is top 10 in the field, he has pretty good history here with 2 top 10's, AND he's a good course fit as he's always been one of the best on tour with his long irons, ranking 4th in the field in prox from 200+, 7th in the field from 150-175, and 22nd from 175-200. I actually think there is value on Kokrak at the current number because he has both the higher ceiling and the higher floor this week. Si Woo is coming off back to back top 4 finishes, and he's been really solid across the board. BUT he's gained 11.6 strokes putting the last two event alone, something he's never done before. He has a good DFS price this week, but it's very hard to continue to bank on being top 5 in the field putting for a 3rd straight week. 

MATCHUP 3

McIlroy vs. Rose

One of the key decisions of the week, Rory or Rose...lets break it down. Both have positive splits on bermuda greens. Form: Rory has finished 5th or better in 4 straight, Rose has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his last 16 events, with 8 of those being top 4 finishes. History: Rory has a 1st, 4th, 27th, 11th (but in his win last year he gained 10 strokes putting, he averages 0.1 for his career). Rose: 3rd, 13th, 9th, MC, 2nd, 15th. Amazingly neither guy ranks in the top 10 in historical GIR leaders at API, but I would probably give Rory the slight edge in history. Approach from 200+? For the last 50 rounds Rory ranks 31st in the field, Rose ranks 23rd. Course fit? Rory is 1st in my course fit model, Justin is 13th...most of the difference comes from Rory's hotter putting and slightly longer off the tee. Upside/floor? If your being honest, I think you have to say that Rory still has the lower floor and equal ceiling. Price? A $700 discount on Rose is going to be hard to pass for most gamers, even with Rory being the defending champ. I looked at several other angles to and they were both so close to each other that it didn't matter. When all else fails, just give me the lower owned guy. 

MATCHUP 4

Poulter vs. Phil

Huge DFS value here as Poulter is $1200 cheaper but he's the head to head favorite against Phil. Phil has skipped this event every year since 2013, and as you know, if players really like a course they make sure it's on the schedule. If I was a betting man (I am) I would bet that the only reason Phil is playing this week is to tune up for the Players. Poulter on the other hand is riding a streak of 4 consecutive top 6 finishes, and has played well at this event over the years making all 6 cuts with a high GIR hit % (he's just putted good the years he didn't hit it great and putted poorly the years he did hit it great). Poulter is another great example of how strokes gained data can fool you if your not paying attention to Euro events where he started the year 6th, 3rd, 6th (but has no SG data). 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be projected for a minimum of 18% owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • He has a negative putting split on poa vs. bermuda 

  • He's never played this event before 

  • Since the start of the year he hasn't hit more than 66% of any greens at any event

  • He's averaged less than 29 putts per round in every single event so far in 2019, for the last calendar year he averages over 29 putts per round.

  • In 3 of his last 5 events he's gotten up & down over 75% of the time event though he only averages getting up & down 57.5% of the time

  • Driving distance was a key stat in back testing, he ranks 83rd in the field

  • Par 5 scoring was also a key stat, he ranks 36th in the field the last calendar year

  • The key approach shot bucket is 200 yards + this week, and he ranks 32nd in the field from that distance in proximity the last 50 rounds

  • He's 86th in the field in opportunities gained the last 24 rounds

  • His best finish this year on the PGA tour? 19th place

  • He's played in 3 strokes gained data events so far this year, his strokes gained ball striking (OTT+ APP) numbers are as follows: +2.6, +1.1, -0.8.....trending nicely in the wrong direction

  • On long courses he loses strokes against his baseline

  • On fast greens he loses strokes against his baseline

  • On courses where the fairways are easy to hit he loses strokes against his baseline

  • While it's not going to be crazy windy, there is a projected 10mph steady wind every day this week. This guys strokes gained drop off dramatically as the wind mph's increase

  • This is projected to be his highest ownership in the last calendar year

  • Most books have him at +250 for a top 20 finish, so the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 72.5%. 

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 22.8% this week....Rafa Babrera Bello, you're the Chalk Bomb!

Now is the perfect time to join right before the Players & Masters! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years API:

1.DeChambeau 2. Moore 3. List 4. Chappell 5. Horsfield 6. Gooch 7. McIlroy 8. Leishman 9. Ben An 10. Murray

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at API (Min 8 rounds):

1. Haas 2. Stenson 3. Leishman 4. Hadwin 5. Steele 6. List 7. Molinari 8. Swafford 9. Glover 10. ZJ

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Phil 2. Barn Rat 3. Day 4. Gay 5. Fowler 6. Kisner 7. Sneds 8. Langley 9. Fitzpatrick 10. Thompson

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult scoring, and long courses, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Rory 2. Day 3. Molinari 4. Rose 5. Fowler 6. Koepka 7. Hideki 8. Mitchell 9. Hoffman 10. Watson....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Molinari 2. Keegan 3. Poulter 4. Hideki 5. Fowler 6. ZJ 7. CH3 8. Fleetwood 9. Kokrak 10. Haas

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from 200 yards + last 50 rounds:

1.Lashley 2. Hideki 3. Stenson 4. Kokrak 5. Hadley 6. DL3 7. Fowler 8. Benny An 9. Saunders 10. Taylor

7.

Strokes gained putting leaders from last years API:

1. Rory 2. Na 3. Rodgers 4. Rose 5. Fitzpatrick 6. Stenson 7. Stanley 8. Hatton 9. Kang 10. McDowell

8.

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking (average, 8 rd min) at Bayhill:

1. Stenson 2. Bubba 3. Rory 4. Rose 5. Molinari 6. Hadwin 7. Kokrak 8. List 9. Hoffman 10. Glover

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1.Hideki 2. Bryson 3. Connors 4. Taylor 5. Niemann 6. Stallings 7. Koepka 8. Albertson 9. Moore 10. Kokrak

10.

Since we're back on a par 72, your top par 5 scorers are

 

: 1. Rose 2. Bryson 3. Fleetwood 4. Rory 5. Champ 6. Im 7. Koepka 8. Ortiz 9. Day 10. Poulter

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"F what David says, play Rory in cash"

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