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There you see it. We're still expecting conditions to be much better for the Friday morning crew. That said, those gusts are worrisome. If you are playing in a 10 mph morning steady wind and all the sudden get gusted to 30 mph, you will 100% be hitting the wrong club. It's far less predictable by nature.We'll talk more about the rest of the weather situation this week tonight and how it could impact lineup construction.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Rory McIlroy -115 ($10,600) vs. Scottie Scheffler -105 ($10,900)

Let's start with the big dogs! Scottie actually opened as a -115 favorite in this matchup before the sharp books quickly took action on McIlroy which now makes him the favorite at -115. Both players clearly check the boxes in terms of form and course record, but it looks like things have settled in at the sports book with Rory maintaining his status as favorite in this particular H2H.We like to take the information and apply to DFS, which is interested because you can get Rory at $300 savings if you pivot off Scheffler at the top. That said, you are going to have to consider that you will likely be eating up potentially over +5% ownership in doing so.I ran a sim on this matchup over on DataGolf and can't say I have ever seen it spit this out before, but both players are projected to win the matchup 47.6% of the time. DataGolf has this DEAD EVEN. It's all going to come down to whether you trust the books or want to play the ownership game given the contest you enter in DFS.

Sahith Theegala -110 ($7,900) vs. Corey Conners -110 ($7,800)

If you are looking at the current price in this matchup, it doesn't quite tell the entire story. Connors actually opened up -134 as a heavy favorite and cheaper option in DFS. It however did not last long, as money came in on Sahith making him briefly the favorite before settling in at -110 both ways currently.For what it's worth, Datagolf has projected odds for the matchup that look much closer to the opening number, with their true projection being Conners -127. The ownership in this matchup appears to relatively even, both coming in sub 10% owned.As I said, the current line is now even, but if you trust the initial odds posted by the sharpest market making books in the industry, they believe Conners to be a substantial upgrade over Sahith this week which should be considered when making your lineups.

Matt Fitzpatrick -149 ($8,800) vs. Shane Lowry +119 ($7,900)

Lowry was steamed pretty hard as soon as this matchup opened up at +135 all the way down to where he currently resides at +119. It's interesting that they chose to price these two players together in a head to head matchup this week, given their differences in DFS Pricing and prices in the outright to win markets.It would appear that many are still concerned with neck problems for Fitzy. Rumors circulating around a strange withdrawal from the Seminole Member Pro on Monday only added further concern. It's worth noting using pure data and not factoring in the injury/rumors, Datagolf projects the -149 price to be winning bet nearly 58% of the time.The latest ownership numbers have Fitz coming in at roughly 13% owned and Lowry around 9% owned. They are of course in far different pricing brackets, but in a field this deep having a extra $900 to build lineups with is certainly advantageous. Best of luck this week and feel free to use this information how you best see fit.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. So the Chalk Bomb the last 2 weeks have finished T42 (Horschel) and MC (Montgomery) but judging by the comments in the Nut Hut (yes I read them sometimes), many said this wasn't chalky enough for their liking. I guess the cutoff for "highly owned" above is different for everyone. In response, we're going to push the limits a bit more this week and reach for a player inside the top 5 projected ownership at Bay Hill.This course is not all that different from PGA National in terms of trouble and potential disaster lurking. There's once again an abundance of water hazards, strategically placed bunkering, and just flat out hard scoring conditions which will only be enhanced by the crazy winds on Friday. At the moment, it would appear the earliest tee times on Friday will draw a wave advantage, but it's important I believe to understand to regular nature of failing to finish the opening round on Thursday. If that happens once again, and say pushes tee times back an hour on Friday, it will mitigate the wave advantage draw and everything will essentially have to navigate the 30 mph gusts projected.Heavy, unpredictable, gusty winds. It's nearly impossible to try and play armchair psychologist to analyze who is best suited mentally to deal with the difficult of the course + conditions. Being mentally equipped to handle the challenge is important, so if I can find a player who is highly owned that potentially could relinquish elements of his game due to frustration on the course, I think it definitely makes them a candidate.The second noteworthy thing about Bay Hill is how difficult it is to hit greens in regulation, especially given the fact these are the 2nd biggest greens on tour in terms of total square footage. They recently replaced many of the tightly mown short grass areas around the green with thick 3 inch rough. This creates an increase in randomness around the green that ultimately disadvantages a player who is particularly talented around the green and usually excels. This definitely fits the mold of the Chalk Bomb player this week.This player struggles in general in terms of hitting Greens in regulation. In fact, over the last 36 rounds played on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, the CB ranks dead last in GIR of any player in the field priced over $8,000! Often times they are able to make up for this deficit with chipping and putting, but if that becomes much more random this week, I worry they could be headed for trouble.Bay Hill is a Major Championship level exam in terms of being able to play in difficult scoring conditions. We looked heavily at bogey avoidance this week, and in particular, bogey avoidance ranks on difficult courses. This player ranked dead last in bogey avoidance for the top 25 highest priced players in the field this week. Another sign that they could be a juicy candidate for the Chalk Bomb if they often struggle making par when the difficulty increases.Finally, I looked at the pairings. Hard to truely glean anything here but I think it's another box that gets checked given this player is the 3rd best player in his grouping. He's paired with two of the best and hottest players in the world right now. If he's getting outplayed by the others in his group, and starts making bogeys in the wind, I can 100% see this player getting in a bad headspace and mentally checking out. There's only a few players on Tour who we can say this for, so I'm certain at this point you know exactly who I am fading at the Chalk Bomb this week. Course history stud and fiery Euro, at nearly 20% ownership, Mr. Tyrrell Hatton (british accent used), you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

The word FAT just looks like somebody took a bite out of the word EATThe Swiss Army must’ve been pretty confident in their chances of victory if they included a corkscrew on their army knife When a pregnant woman swims, she is a human submarineIf steroids are illegal for athletes then photoshop should be illegal for models Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Let's have some fun this week with carnage at Bay Hill. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!