API 22 Heavy Petting

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If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

• The winning score O/U is set at -13.5. Bay Hill has the 7th highest Total Scoring Avg adjusted for field strength out of regular PGA TOUR stops (not including Majors) right along with RIV & Muirfield. Like we said...not too many long shots have won here in recent years. Bay Hill plays tough.

• Bay Hill has the 8th lowest DD total among regular PGA TOUR stops (not including Majors) since 2015 at 279.7 right there with Colonial, Sea Island (Seaside), and Pete Dye Stadium Course. The longer hitters club down off the tee more than average.

• Bay Hill has the 5th lowest GIR% total among regular PGA TOUR stops (not including Majors) since 2015 at 63% right there with Harbour town, ANGC, RIV, Quail Hollow

• Since 2019, approach shots from 200-225 yards have been nearly double PGA TOUR avg…hello club head speed thus shorter clubs OR long term precision long iron players a la past champs Molinari and Hatton

• DataGolf rates only 3 more PGA TOUR courses higher in predictive course history than Bay Hill…ANGC, TPC Scottsdale and Waialae CC

• The greens at Bay Hill are difficult and feature typical Florida style grainy, bermuda grass. Consider narrowing down your bermuda putting stats to the likes of Harbour Town, Innisbrook, PGA National and Sawgrass.

• DataGolf ranks SG Metrics VS a player's expectation based on course fit. It's interesting because it can reveal cheaper/long shot players that tend to level up at a certain course. Here are the Top 10 for Bay Hill (Min 12 rds): Merritt, Mitchell, Wallace, Im, Gooch, Fitzpatrick, Leishman, Kokrak, List, D. Lee

• The bottom 10 would be (Min 12 rds): Piercy, Lahiri, Si Woo, Sabbatini, Schwartzel, Todd, Henley, Reavie, Stallings, Grace & Hovland (11, but Hovland caught my eye)

• These are some of the toughest Par 3's on the PGA TOUR, largely due to length and forced carries over trouble.

• Tiger won here 8 times and in his words he played well by, "playing for par on most of the holes and being aggressive on the par 5's to score." 

• This is a grinder's course that will require patience (crazy that Hatton won here). The tough conditions, challenging approach shots, firm greens, potential for wind, etc all point to players that can stay patient and arrive in solid form at worst.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's API: 1. Westwood 2. DeChambeau 3. Hatton 4. Kokrak 5. Zalatoris 6. Conners 7. Casey 8. Kirk 9. Steele 10. CH32. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bermuda grass (that also rank top 100 in ball striking): 1.McCarthy 2. Kiz 3. Fitz 4. Bez 5. Burns 6. Griffin 7. Reed 8. Tringale 9. Rose 10. Moore3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Rahm 2. Zalatoris 3. Mitchell 4. Munoz 5. Scheffler 6. Matsuyama 7. Griffin 8. Bradley 9. Tringale 10. Im4. On courses that > 7400 yards, firm & fast greens, & bermuda grass, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. McIIroy 2. Mitchell 3. Rose 4. Stenson 5. Scott 6. Fowler 7. Day 8. Garcia 9. DeChambeau 10. Glover5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses >7400 yards, long rough, & difficult scoring: 1. McIIroy 2. Rose 3. Scott 4. Kokrak 5. Watney 6. Rahm 7. Day 8. Zalatoris 9. Davis 10. Casey6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. McIIroy 3. DeChambeau 4. Young 5. Henley 6. Rahm 7. Hovland 8. List 9. Lee 10. Mitchell7. Historical GIR's gained @ Bay Hill (min 8 rds): 1. Stenson 2. McIIroy 3. Kokrak 4. Scott 5. Rose 6. Swafford 7. Hoge 8. CH3 9. Steele 10. Leishman8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1.Rahm 2. Scheffler 3. Pendrith 4. Zalatoris 5. Kizzire 6. Straka 7. Im 8. Young 9. Munoz 10. Garcia9. Top 10 in proximity from the 2 main approach shot buckets (200+ & 150-175): 1. Im 2. Munoz 3. Hatton 4. Zalatoris 5. Kokrak 6. Higgo 7. Reavie 8. Rahm 9. Scheffler 10. Matsuyama 10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Hoge 2. Mitchell 3. List 4. Zalatoris 5. Burns 6. Kirk 7. Laird 8. Munoz 9. Tringale 10. Young

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