API 22 Chalk Bomb

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Wind does look to play a role as of now for Friday. Bay Hill has been known to produce some blustery days for the competitors, thus making it more difficult. We've already heard that Bay Hill has grown the rough up and the greens are already firm and fast. The wind is just going to make this place firmer and faster as the week progresses.Targeting in form iron players that don't miss the dead ass center of the clubface is a must given wind and conditions. I don't think Friday looks to be so one sided that you give a big advantage to the PM/AM wave. However, I do think when it's all said and done after round 2 (assuming this forecast remains), that the guys that completed their round in the morning on Friday will be glad they did. Having to hit shots that hold these greens or make putts late on the day Friday to make the cut is not ideal.For that reason, I'd give a slight bump in weight, as of now, to the guys going off extra early on Friday. I'd use it as a tiebreaker between two guys for sure. 

Hideki -154 vs. Scott +120

I threw this line up there more as an indictment on Adam Scott. The books and H2H bettors are betting off Scott in every matchup. Scott opened and remains a massive dog to Hideki (who the books and H2H bettors don't love that much either). Against Leishman, Scott opened and remains a -102 to -124 underdog. And on another book, Scott opened as a slight favorite to Leishman, but the line has flipped to Leish being a -115 slight favorite. 

Scott was last seen at Bay Hill slamming the trunk of his car on Friday in 2020. He played pretty well here from 2014 to 2016, but this place is different now after the redesign and condition changes. 

The Aussies iron play has been pretty good this season, but he's still had some inconsistent results. Sure, he's coming off a T4 at RIV, but he also gained 7 strokes putting. That doesn't happen very often for him.

I'm honestly tempted to take the + money on this matchup for a guy of Scott's caliber (and I even like Hideki in general this week), but it does make me concerned to see the books and bettors so bearish on him from a H2H view.

Im -118 vs. Fitz -108

The Sungjae Im VS Matty Fitz lines have been very interesting this week across several books. The line above opened as a coin flip at -112 each and has moved Sungjae's way a tad. Another book opened Fitz at -130 over Im at +105, and that line has now swung big time to both at -110. Even Hideki opened as a favorite over Sungjae, but has since moved to both at -112. 

It just seems that the H2H bettors are liking Sungjae on all of his matchups, despite the MC last week at Honda. I said on the podcast that I liked a bounce back from Sungjae here at Bay Hill where he's cashed two T3's and a T21. He's been known to follow up a MC with a top 10 or 20 right after throughout his short career. Plus...Honda is just so damn variable. Course history seemingly doesn't matter at PGA NATIONAL like it does here at Bay Hill. Sungjae's still checking plenty of boxes for me, and I'll take him everywhere.

Garcia -126 vs. Young -102

After Pat Mayo bullied me into Sergio this week on his podcast, I had to do some line movement assessment on Sergio from a H2H standpoint. Well...here ya go. While Garcia is $600 more expensive on DK, he's projected at half the ownership as of now on Cam Young. Plus, this line actually opened with Cam as the -118 VS -108 favorite and it's now swung hard towards Sergio's direction.

Sergio also opened and remains a big favorite over Tommy Lad at -128 VS +105. Sergio has chosen not to play here since 2012, and the only reason I can figure is due to scheduling conflicts. Because, the 4 years he played it back in the day...he played quite well.

This will be Cam Young's first appearance at the API, although he has played Bay Hill in another setting prior to this week, but not in this condition. Course history tends to matter more at Bay Hill than it has on some other courses where Cam Young has played well. The kid's got game for sure, but this course may neutralize his biggest weapon a touch...his length off the tee. 

Unless Cam chooses to go the Bryson approach, he'll be clubbing down a good bit to find fairway here, and as good as the kid's been...in an iron competition...on a place where experience matters...I may give the edge to Sergio here.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

We're doing better fam. Billy Ho finished 21st in DK points scored last week, and he was the most owned player on average across all contests at 26%. That certainly didn't kill you if you faded him. But on to Bay Hill...Listen...I like this young kid. He's a stud. Wake Forest grad...played Bay Hill in college/am days. Arnold connection. 1 year of KFT then bounced to the big show. He's good for sure. However, this is his 4th event in a row on a course he's had no experience playing in tournament conditions.As I said above with the matchup to Sergio, his distance is somewhat negated here at least off the tee unlike his last 4 previous starts where he could just unload. In those 4 starts, he's gained 18.4 strokes OTT! He's gained 8.7 total on APP and lost 3.6 ATG. His irons have been good, but the driver has been great! This is a tough week to pick a Chalk Bomb given the big guns up top, but for a rookie on his 4th start in a row and 1st appearance at this courses for horses TOUR stop...I'll probably go underweight or hop off the train altogether this week and see what happens. At 19% (Top 7 highest) projected ownership, Cameron Young...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I just noticed this week after many years of using a computer that I like to operate the cursor with my right hand even though I write with my left hand. Is that weird?Why do some stores in America have the name “Shoppe” in the title? This isn’t 17th century England for God’s sake.Since it’s my birthday this week and DB is an ageist who told everyone my age against my will. Here’s an age-related pontificate for you. Getting a colonoscopy is a miserable experience. But - would you dread it as much if there were a happy cartoon box prancing around telling you how easy it would be? Instead, you have grumpy doctors telling you how miserable it is but still recommending them. Of course, everyone dreads getting them, but pooping in the box and shipping it somewhere sure seems more pleasant.Why do people walking have the right of way? If I’m going 40 mph in my car and some old bag (shit, guess I’m ageist also) decides to step into the crosswalk and cross the street why should I have to stop? Moreover, I hate it when folks lolly gag crossing the street. You are already inconveniencing me by making me wait on your slow ass. Show some respect and hustle across the damn street.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Arnold Palmer Invitational on DB’s favorite course Bay Hill. It should be Great Fantastic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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