API 2023 HP

HP 🍑 for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

February 28, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.An absolutely stacked field once again has arrived in Orlando at Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the 2023 API this week. With the additional of Ryan Fox, it becomes the new strongest field of the PGA Tour Season. Once again, 20 million dollars is in the purse in this elevated series tournament. Jon Rahm will walk onto the first tee as World #1 with defending champion Scottie Scheffler and Bay Hill horse Rory McIlroy right on his heels! We should be in store for an awesome week!Make zero mistake. It's going to play hard! Between the infusion of a new super a few years back who brought out the fire in the course, thick rough added around the greens, and legit 30 mile per hour winds in store, we may once again see the most difficult non-major setup this week at Bay Hill. You are not going to want to miss the LIVE chat Wednesday night this week as having the most up to date and current information before sealing your lineups will be huge! For now though, here is everything you need to know for the API:

  • The last 5 years, the winners betting odds coming into the week have averaged 28-1. Given the strength of this field again, it may be a week to venture toward the top!

  • 3 inch Rye Grass Rough has only been this difficult for the last 2 years which has seen scoring average go up.

  • Bay Hill has the 8th lowest DD total among regular PGA TOUR stops (not including Majors) since 2015.

  • 9 holes have a water hazard in play and 84 totals bunkers rank as the 13th most on Tour.

  • Bay Hill features the 2nd largest greens on tour, but they play much smaller as they mostly all sit on a substantial tilt and are angled away from the fairway. This coupled with the fact they are often rock hard is why you see the very low GIR rates here.

  • The greens are once again Bermuda, but typically not as grainy and inconsistent as we see at PGA National. These are a much smoother role which should appeal to quality putters.

  • This is a grinder's course that will require patience (crazy that Hatton won here). The tough conditions, challenging approach shots, firm greens, potential for wind, etc all point to players that can stay patient and arrive in solid form at worst.

  • Tiger won here 8 times and in his words he played well by, "playing for par on most of the holes and being aggressive on the par 5's to score." 

  • DataGolf rates only 3 more PGA TOUR courses higher in predictive course history than Bay Hill…ANGC, TPC Scottsdale and Waialae CC

  • 23 of the last 26 winners ranked inside the top 40 in the OWGR (via PGAsplits). This is pretty wild and further reason this may not be the week for LongshotSZN

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Bay Hill:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Bay Hill: Mitchell, Im, Grillo, Merritt, Fitzpatrick, Molinari, Kirk, Hatton

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Bay Hill: Palmer, Reavie, Si Woo, Stallings, Todd, Simpson, Henley, Matsuyama

Draftkings Optimal Lineup this week per DataGolf:

Scheffler, Young, Day, Mitchell, Montgomery, Buckley

2 DFS Sleepers for The API 2023

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 10 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Par 5 scoring leaders over the last 36 rounds played: 1. McIlroy  2. Higgo  3. Lowry  4. Rahm  5. Cantlay  6. Clark  7. Schauffele  8. Westmoreland  9. Thomas  10. Im2. Strokes gained Ballstriking Leaders over the last 24 rounds played: 1.Scheffler  2. Schauffele  3. Woodland  4. Rahm  5. McIlroy  6.Finau  7. Morikawa  8. Zalatoris  9. Day  10. Cantlay3. Strokes gained T2G at Bay Hill last 6 years:  1.McIlroy  2. An  3. Matsuyama  4. Scheffler  5. Molinari  6. Morikawa  7. Conners  8. Hoffman  9. Grillo  10. List4. Bogey Avoidance Leaders on difficult courses over the last 36 rounds: 1. McIlroy  2. Lowry  3. Scheffler  4. Finau  5. Im  6. Fitzpatrick  7. Homa  8. Putnam  9. Day  10. Wise5. Leaders in Birdies or Better gained on courses with difficult scoring conditions : 1. Zalatoris  2. Mitchell  3. McIlroy  4. Scheffler  5. FItzpatrick  6. Schauffele  7. Spieth  8. Homa  9. Wise  10. Finau6. Top 10 in Sand Saves x Scrambling ARG this week: 1. Spaun  2. Putnam  3. Hodges  4. Cole  5. Theegala  6. Finau  7. Rahm  8. Harman  9. Cantlay  10. Day7. Top 10 in Strokes Gained total at Bay Hill over last 10 years per round: 1. Spieth  2. Herbert  3. Scheffler  4. McIlroy  5. Im  6. Hatton  7. Young  8. Bez  9. Grillo  10. Molinari8. Top 10 Players in highest approach shot proximity bucket (150-175) last 50 rounds: .1 Morikawa  2. Scheffler  3. Zalatoris  4. Tom Kim  5. Rahm  6. Spieth  7. Young  8. Matsuyama  9. Day  10. Hovland9.  Top 10 in Fantasy points gained in last 36 rounds:  1. Rahm  2. Cantlay  3. Scheffler  4. Homa  5. Hovland  6. McIlroy  7. Montgomery  8. Power  9. Zalatoris  10. Finau10. Top 10 in Total Strokes gained positive adjustment for course fit via Datagolf: 1. Mitchell  2. Thompson  3. Buckley  4. Gordon  5. Young  6. Scheffler  7. Morikawa  8. Woodland  9. McIlroy  10. Hovland

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