Arnie's Place

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's almost that time....'major' (fifth major) season is upon us, the days are about to get longer (Pat should Pontificate on why daylight savings time even exist anymore, do people not like daylight???)  and at least here in the South it's now warm enough to enjoy an actual round of golf. Just like last week, there are several things that really stand out about the course fit here: we're on bermuda for the next month basically, it's a par 72, so the guys that feed on par 5's have a bigger advantage than the guys that play par 4's & 3's well. The GIR % here is 4% harder than on the average tour stop, BUT driving accuracy is almost 5% higher. We know from both the data and from what players have told us, this is a less-than-driver course, and your approach shots are really long into a lot of greens. The 200 yard + approach shot is key this week with over 1/3rd of your shots coming from that distance bucket. Because of those two main data points above, driving distance (or distance in general) back-tested really well, and also not surprisingly, par 5 scoring was the most important area for gaining ground on the field. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. The narrative you've probably heard all week is that 'it's all about approach play at Bay Hill,' but the data doesn't exactly confirm that line of thought. On a relative basis, you can see that driving distance, accuracy, and putting are of greater importance compared to an 'average' course. Whereas approach play and around the green are relatively less important for success at Bay Hill. I think there's a pretty simple explanation behind this though. Tons of long approach shots are going to mean a naturally higher dispersion of proximity to the hole, thereby making it harder for ANYONE to gain a ton of strokes with approach play. And because you have greater proximity to the hole, that equals more feet of putts you have to make. Last year Tyrell Hatton gained the least amount of strokes putting for an API winner since Easy E in 2010 (both gained 3.6 strokes). So what does all this mean? On a relative basis, total driving seems to be the most valuable attribute to have. If your not a good total driver you better be damn good at approach shots of 200+ (spoiler, if you hit it further you're naturally better at this), and you more than likely need to gain at LEAST 4.5 strokes putting to be able to win. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Fitzpatrick vs. Im

Fitz -111 vs. Im -105

From the looks of it this week we'll have a couple of very chalky pockets with plenty of ownership leverage to found elsewhere. Both Fitz & Im come in with 2 of the better course histories in what is at less a historically weak field for the API. But there may be some fools gold that we can sift out, starting with the history. The field average for GIR's hit at Bay Hill is 61.2%, in Fitzpatrick's 6 tries his GIR hit % is: 61%, 64%, 53%, 58%, 60%, & 58%. So for those of you challenged in the art of counting, he's been above field average once. So how has he played well here? Well, in 20 rounds at Bay Hill, he's gained 21 strokes putting or over a full stroke per round. Now in fairness, he was #2 in strokes gained putting for the season last year on tour, but a huge chunk of that came in a 5 event stretch (gained 35 strokes in 20 rounds, would guess that's some kind of record). BUT, in fairness again he's gained 6 & 5.2 strokes tee to green his last 2 events and he played well. Im is a fairly similar case when it comes to his course history w/ 61% & 58% GIR hit % at Bay Hill (below or at field average). As I pointed out last week making Im the Chalk Bomb, his tee to green game has been all over the place, and last week was no exception. Since the start of the year, he's gained no more than 2.3 strokes tee to green in any one event and has lost at least 2.3 strokes on approach shots in 3 of his 5 events this year. The good news (or maybe bad news) is the flat stick has carried him to not completely terrible finishes as he's gained 16.7 strokes putting in his last 16 rounds. All this to say I see a lot of risk in both players, but it's also completely possible they combine to gain 20 strokes putting this week. 

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MATCHUP 2

Hovland vs. DeChambeau

 Hovland -108 vs. DeChambeau -108

That's right grasshoppers, Young Hov has ascended to be a pick-em again the large golfer. Hovland's ball-striking has been unreal really dating all the way back to the Tour Championship last year. Since the Mayakoba, he's finished no worse than 6th place in full-field events, and that's including the Saudi International, which was his worst finish....6th. In his last 3 starts on tour, he's gained 7.3, 8, & 13.5 strokes tee to green. Yes he still sucks around the green as he's lost strokes there every event, but I think the area he's not getting nearly the credit he deserves is putting. Since the PGA Championship last year he's been gaining about 1.2 strokes per event, & this isn't including his win at the OHL. His course history certainly isn't great with a 40th & 42nd place, but I would argue that he's a different (better) golfer than he was previously. For the large golfer, he's got pretty good course history at Bay Hill which really wouldn't seem like his cup of tea. Last year he gained 10.8 strokes ball striking and if it wasn't for Rory gaining 10 strokes putting in 2018, he probably already has a win here. His approach play has been an issue lately, again, but he was his normal self off the tee & putting last week. Even though this is a less-than-driver course, his distance is still a weapon as everyone will see a ton of 200+ yard approach shots, which for Bryson can be as low as an 8 iron if he has a slight wind to his back. If he's the forgotten man up top, he has as high an upside as anyone. 

MATCHUP 3

Hatton vs. McIIroy

Hatton +134 vs. McIIroy -157

While it's no real surprise that Rory is the favorite in this matchup, it is interesting that he *only* has implied odds of beating Hatton 61% of the time even though Hatton is $1500 cheaper this week. Even though Hatton won't be low owned (would guess he'll certainly be top 10), I still think he offers value. Consider that last week despite finishing 22nd, he gained 1.9 strokes off the tee, 4.6 strokes on approach, and 4.5 strokes putting. Somehow he managed to lose 6.5 strokes around the green, more than DOUBLE his career-worst. He's a good bermuda putter, is 2nd in the field in proximity from 200+ yards, has made the cut all 4 times he's played here (& obviously the defending champ). What your also not seeing in his strokes gained data is his Middle Eastern swing stats where he won the Abu Dhabi, was 22nd at Dubai, & 6th at the Saudi. Rory probably played well enough last week to garner 20ish % ownership this go around. He gained strokes across the board and saw his putting come back to life gaining 2.5 strokes on what is his best surface (bermuda). He's been above field average in GIR's hit at Bay Hill every year he's played and has finished no worse than 6th place the last 4 years. 

Other interesting lines:Clark -118 vs. Noren +101Reed -115 vs. Fitz -102Zalatoris -148 vs. Leishman +127Matsuyama -147 vs. Spieth +126Horschel -131 vs. Burns +112Ben An -107 vs. NeSmith -109Day -129 vs. Molinari +110 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's played here 6 times, & been below field average in GIR's hit 5 of those times

• He's 31st in the field in proximity from 200+ yards

• He's 67th in the field in par 5 scoring

• On courses over 7400 yards, he's 99th in the field in strokes gained ball striking

• On courses with firm greens, he loses strokes against this baseline

• On par 72's he loses strokes against his baseline

• He's played 20 rounds at Bay Hill, & gained 21 strokes putting...just a slightly unsustainable pace

• In those same 20 rounds at Bay Hill, he's 76th in the field in ball striking

• Over his last 10 events on tour, he's averaged 1.6 strokes gained tee to green

• This is his 2nd highest DFS price ever for a PGA Tour event. The only other time he was > 9800 was at the 2020 RSM, where he missed the cut

• This is projected to be his highest ownership ever on the PGA Tour

• He's an underdog in 3 out of the 4 H2H's matchups he has this week

• Over the last 50 rounds he's 53rd in the field in opps gained

At 19.1% calculated ownership on Fantasy National (2nd highest), Matthew Fitzpatrick, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I miss Gatorade Gum. Or “Gator Gum” as it was called. Whatever happened to that? The flavor went away within seconds but I didn’t care. Now, did it quench your thirst like it claimed? Absolutely not, but it was still some damn good gum.

You know what sucks no matter what occasion it is? Picking out greeting cards. It’s an awful experience. Do I get a funny one? Do I get a serious one? Is this one gonna imply something I really didn’t want to imply? Am I gonna offend someone not meaning to offend them? And don’t get me started on the stupid cards that blare out sound. In no circumstance ever is picking out a greeting card a pleasant experience.

Why the hell does a Swiss Army knife have a wine corkscrew on it? Those were some pretty confident army people that’s for sure. Respect.

One of the most annoying things when playing a round of golf is when the pro shop forcefully pairs you with another group against your will just because you’re playing in a twosome or by yourself. I get the whole pace of play thing but it still sucks and pisses me off. I’ve never arrived at the course about to play a round with my buddy and thought, hey, I sure hope they pair us with 2 random dudes today, that will be awesome.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week folks! Enjoy Arnie’s tournament at Bay Hill. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!