This Week's Tour Stop API @ Bay Hill 

(Almost) Major Season

It's almost that time....'major' (fifth major) season is almost upon us, the days are about to get longer again (thank God! Why can't we just agree as a society to not have day light savings?) and at least here in the South this 'should' be our last week of cold weather according the people that research these things. Just like last week, there are several things that really stand out about the course fit here: we're on bermuda for the next month basically, it's a par 72, so the guys that feed on mostly par 5's have a bigger advantage than the guys that play par 4's & 3's well. The GIR % here is 4% harder than on the average tour stop, BUT driving accuracy is almost 5% higher. We know from both the data and from what players have told us, this is a less than driver course, and your approach shots are really long into a lot of greens. The 200 yard + approach shot is key this week with over 1/3rd of your shots coming from that distance bucket. Because of those two main data points above, driving distance (or distance in general) back-tested really well, and also not surprisingly, par 5 scoring was the most important area for gaining ground on the field. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. The narrative you've probably heard all week is that 'it's all about approach play at Bay Hill,' but the data doesn't exactly confirm that line of thought. On a relative basis, you can see that driving distance, accuracy, and putting were of greater importance compared to an 'average' course. Whereas approach play and around the green were relatively less important for success at Bay Hill. I think there's a pretty simple explanation behind this though. Tons of long approach shots is going to mean a naturally higher dispersion of proximity to the hole, thereby making it harder for ANYONE to gain a ton of strokes with approach play because the average distance to the hole is so great. In the last 5 years at Bay Hill a TOTAL of 5 players have gained MORE THAN 4 strokes on approach shots for the week. So what does all this mean? On a relative basis, total driving seems to be the most valuable attribute to have. If your not a good total driver you better be damn good at approach shots of 200+ (spoiler, if you hit it further your naturally better at this), and you more than likely need to gain at LEAST 4.5 strokes putting to be able to win (since 2012 no one has won this event gaining less than 4.5 strokes putting for the week).  Also below is a quick look at the wind as of 10am Wed. It was extremely even last week but I would be surprised if there's not a wave advantage of some sort. You can see currently there are wind gusts of up to 42!!! mph projected for Thursday afternoon with it really picking up after 12ish. If nothing else use it as a tie-breaker. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Rory vs. Tommy Lad

Well, I'm certainly not surprised that Rory is the favorite, but dang -200 sure seems high so let's take a look at the numbers and see. Starting with Tommy, he played great last week, albeit in a weaker field, gaining strokes across the board. He gained 2.2 strokes putting which was a high watermark since June of last year and despite 2 water balls he still gained 4 strokes on approach shots for the week. His course history is solid but not elite. He's actually lost strokes on approach shots 2 out of 3 years, though he currently ranks 12th in the field in proximity for shots over 200+ yards and I would also argue he's even better in pounding greens then he was in years past. He's a good wind player and also plays well in tough conditions, but if the wind split is real, he's on the bad side of the draw while Rory is on the good side. I know I made this point for the WGC Mexico when discussing Rory vs. DJ, but it bears repeating. Did you know that since the beginning of 2019, Rory has played in 22 PGA events, and finished outside the top 10 in FOUR out of 22. So I can talk about how good Rory is for days, but that's not interesting, let's see if we can find any reason to NOT play him (will very likely be the #1 owned player). Since 2017, 278 players have had a salary of at least $11,200 on DK. 60.8% of the time they have met or exceeded their salary based expectations (aka you got some kind of ROI), but that leaves the other 39.2% of the time that those guys under-performed. It's crazy because the bar for Rory to 'fail' is very easy to clear. He really only needs to finish outside the top 6 players, OR have a combination of 2 other top players finishing above him even if he finishes in the top 6. And despite that REALLY simple bar to clear he's STILL doing it greater than 40% of the time. To boot he also finds himself in the better draw as he tees off at 7:54am. Even with that, the books have him at +115 for a top 5 finish. The math says to fade him in gpp's, play him in cash. But you guys don't believe in math right ;)

MATCHUP 2

Matsuyama vs. DeChambeau

Boys and girls, there's a lot of opportunities this week in the head to head betting markets. Some books are adjusting for the tee time split, some are not. Some have Hideki as the -120 (above) some have Bryson as the -120 favorite. For these two it's really a floor vs. ceiling decision for me. I would argue that Hideki has a higher floor (only 1 finish outside the top 16 since the Shriners) and Bryson has a higher ceiling with more power and a much better bermuda putter than Hideki. Bryson is surprisingly higher ranked than Hideki in good drives gained (14th vs. 36th), but of course, Hideki beats Bryson in every single proximity stat at every distance. Ownership should be about the same, and both guys are on the poor side of Thursday's draw. 

MATCHUP 3

Hatton vs. Fitz

I do have a fairly strong opinion on this matchup. Hatton is $400 cheaper yet he's a pickem against the 12-year-old boy wonder in Matthew Fitzpatrick. I'm almost always bearish on Fitz simply for someone who doesn't hit the ball very far (91st in the field in distance), his short game is pretty average. Yes he finished 2nd here in 19' and 13th in 17', but did you know that in 2019 he gained 7.1 strokes in the short game (around the green + putting), his highest total since.....the 2017 API in which he gained 8.5 strokes in the short game! (BTW his average over his last 20 PGA events is 0.7 strokes gained SG). Since the Alfred Dunhill, Hatton has finished no worse than 18th just 1 time, and has really upped his approach play starting in mid-summer last year. He's 10th in the field in good drives gained over his last 50 rounds, AND is 13th in the field in my approach shot model that weighs 200+ yards at 67%. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Look alive bitches! There appears to be a tee time wave advantage this week! In short, Friday looks to be the same conditions across the entire day, but Thursday PM guys will be dealing with potential gusts in the mid to upper 20s, while the peak gust projections for AM guys is 18mph. I like going heavy into the mispriced FRL market this week with all early guys. Then, if one of those hit, I'll be pounding some outrights on Thursday night for sure. While we have a known edge, we may as well move more units that direction.

Through 17 Weeks: Spent $850 / Won $1250 / Up 40 unitsOutright WinnerWestwood (60/1)_$5, Gooch & HV3 (175/1)_$5 eachFirst Round LeaderOrtiz & Conners (both 90/1)_$5 each, Gooch, HV3, Lanto, & Wolff (100/1)_$5 each,& Burns (125/1)_$5

Remember kids...FRL bets are very likely to split based on Dead Heat rules, so don't be a jackass and bet short odds. Every player on this card hits it a long way with the exception of Westwood. I like the bombers this week having shorter irons into some of these difficult greens. All arrive in pretty decent form, especially considering the price. Like I said, I'm going to enjoy hammering that first wave FRL guys and hope 1 or 2 hit so I can load up on outrights after round 1. And, if I whiff...oh well! On to TPC! 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's in the bad wind draw, slated to tee off right in the teeth of it at 12:56p

• He's 56th in the field in proximity for approach shots of 200+ yards

• In rounds where the wind blows 20+ mph he's 97th in the field in total strokes gained

• On courses 7400+ yards his strokes gained tee to green is almost cut in half

• He loses strokes against his baseline on par 72's

• He loses strokes against his baseline on bermuda greens

• His last event was the most strokes he's gained putting since the beginning of 2019

• In 3 tries at Bay Hill he's never gained less than 3.4 strokes putting. He averages 0.5 per round on bermuda

• He's 23rd in the field in GIR's gained the last 50 rounds

• For someone who's a 'big hitter' these days, he's only 44th in strokes gained on par 5's the last 50 rounds

• It's his highest DFS price since the Shriners, & a $1,400 jump from this last event

At 19.5% actual FNGC lineup generated % (3rd highest), Bryson you're the Chalk Bomb! There's admittedly a little 'gut' feeling to go with this as well. I would imagine that for someone who grinds over humidity percentage effects on ball flight distance, winds whipping from 20-40 mph will be quite difficult for the mad scientist to compute on the fly. He's also put some much effort into getting longer that (in my mind) a less than driver course would make him hit a lot of shots he hasn't practiced as much. 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Random thought here, but probably my favorite music lyrics of all time is from Widespread Panic: “I like coconuts you can break them open they smell like ladies lying in the sun”

I mean, that line is just awesome and opens up so many senses. I promise I’m not smoking weed at the moment either.

How do we feel about grown men that tie their tie with a half Windsor instead of a full Windsor? I’m not a fan let’s just leave it at that.

I mostly use my driver's license to buy stuff that impairs my ability to drive.

I recognize click bait almost every time, but still want to know what that child celebrity looks like today.

Speaking of click bait, people who are good looking but have terrible personalities are basically real life click baits.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Arnold Palmer Invitational and another fantastic field event.  Good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's API:

1. Kokrak 2. Fleetwood 3. Matsuyama 4. Long 5. Ben An 6. McIIroy 7. Im 8. Fitzpatrick 9. List 10. Kisner

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Bay Hill (min 8 rounds): 

1. Stenson 2. Scott 3. Leishman 4. Ortiz 5. Steele 6. Glover 7. Molinari 8. McIIroy 9. Poulter 10. Finau

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bermuda (that also rank in the top 75 in ball striking):

 1.CH3 2. Day 3. Poston 4. English 5. Fowler 6. Lashley 7. DeChambeau 8. Im 9. Horschel 10. Munoz

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses over 7400 yards, long rough, & par 72's your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Day 2. McIIroy 3. Stenson 4. Rose 5. Watson 6. Scott 7. Molinari 8. Holmes 9. Mickelson 10. Gooch

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, long rough, and long courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Watson 2. Stenson 3. Kokrak 4. Hoffman 5. Leishman 6. McIIroy 7. Glover 8. Holmes 9. Scott 10. Rose

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 3 events in 2020):

1. Schauffele 2. Conners 3. McIIroy 4. Morikawa 5. Hatton 6. Scott 7. Streelman 8. HV3 9. Steele 10. Poston

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Bay Hill, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1.McIIroy 2. Lashley 3. Streelman 4. Schauffele 5. Norlander 6. Griffin 7. Fitzpatrick 8. Jones 9. Day 10. Rose

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+ (33% 150-175 & 67% 200+), so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Niemann 2. Scott 3. Im 4. Kokrak 5. Leishman 6. HV3 7. Grillo 8. Harman 9. Koepka 10. Steele

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 3 events in 2020):

1. Matsuyama 2. Munoz 3. Gooch 4. McIIroy 5. Long 6. Burns 7. DeChambeau 8. McNealy 9. Champ 10. Niemann

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Koepka 2. Day 3. Steele 4. RCB 5. Rose 6. Na 7. Leishman 8. Finau 9. Reed 10. Ancer