This Week's Tour Stop The AmEx @ PGA West 

Multi-Course SZN

This is always one of my favorite events for several reasons. One, I've made more money on this tournament than any other PGA tour event over the last 3 years w/ 2 separate top 6 GPP finishes, so I'm slightly biased, but the coolest part is that I did it with the exact same model both years. You would think that it's a sloppy course fit with 3 different courses but it's actually a fairly nice one (& not one that you would think). The top 3 backtested metrics for this week are: Par 5 scoring, eagle scoring, and driving distance. Not exactly what you would guess on 3 tracks that are all sub 7200 yards, but it makes sense if you think about it. Largely, everyone in the field should be able to score (winner has ranged from -20 to -30) and all 3 courses have 4 par 5's so it's really the only area where you can try to separate yourself from the field. As always this doesn't mean 'only bombers' because the short guys can get these par 5's as well, but the difference of some guys hitting a 3 iron in versus a 7 iron is a big advantage. Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Horschel vs. Champ

This line caught my eye not because Horschel was the favorite, but because he was such a large favorite. Like Rahm two years ago, if the weather is nice these courses are tailor-made for the bomb & gouge types (which the weather is supposed to be perfect). Par 5 scoring is far & away the most important metric this week, & with someone who drives the ball 350 off the tee you can probably guess what stat Cam Champ excels at. Again though with Billy being the -165 favorite in the head to head betting markets it made me double-check Bill's stats. Did you know he had 5 top 10's his last 10 starts of 2019? I didn't. And do you know who has scored better on par 5's overall the last calendar year of these two? Ole Bill. 

MATCHUP 2

Scheffler vs. Molinari

What a world. A mere 18 months ago Molinari was the hottest player in the world and winning majors while Scheffler had just finished playing his college ball, now he's a head to head underdog against the up & comer. Just like the line above, this sticker price aroused my interest to dig a little deeper on both guys. Scheffler has been absolutely pounding the GIR's since his graduation from the Korn Ferry. While he doesn't have a win yet, it's just a matter of time. He's not quite as long as Mr. Cam above, but he ain't far off. He's gained strokes off the tee in every single PGA tour event he's played in since 6/2018, and as you might imagine that leads him to be a really good scorer on par 5's. 

MATCHUP 3

Casey vs. Im

I'm honestly not trying to be ugly here, but Sungjae just has a face that only a mother could love. I followed him around when he played in the Wyndham for several holes, & let me tell yall boys, get your money right...he had SEVERAL very attractive Korean ladies following him (presumably not for his looks). Anyways I would assume that Im will either be the #1 or #2 most popular play this week, so it should certainly make you take note that the books are making a (cheaper) Paul Casey the head to head fav over him. It's hard to completely fade Im because the courses he struggles on are the difficult ones where he has to use his short game to get up & down (his biggest weakness). He's been on an absolute tear with his putter really the last 6 months & is probably due for some negative regression (last 50 rounds he's averaging about .85 strokes gained per round which is higher than anyone scored in the entire 2018 season). Both guys are great par 5 scorers & average almost the same scoring on them the last calendar year. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Unlike last week's shitshow, La Quinta looks to be typical lovely California weather all 4 days of the tournament with no rain, no wind and clear skies. Thank God we don't have to try and figure out who's playing the difficult course on the worse weather day. I hate that shit. I'm not a Bryson Dechambeau weatherman. Therefore, I don't really see any weather/tee time wave advantage that's going to influence my bets. However, for first round leader bets, you've got to stick to players at La Quinta and Nicklaus course. They're both the easiest courses and there's negligible difference between the two. But for outrights, I don't care what course they start on since the weather won't play a factor.

Through 11 Weeks: Spent $550 / Won $1250 / Up 70 unitsOutright WinnerPoston (50/1)_$10, Berger (60/1)_$10, Sabbatini (70/1)_$10, Cauley (80/1)_$5,Norlander (110/1)_$5, Si Woo (125/1)_$5, Harrington (225/1)_$5

As you can see, my unit is on full display with JT, Berger and Sabbs this week. All 3 played in Hawaii last week, and while JT missed the cut, we've got on good authority that he was absolutely striping it and the putts just weren't dropping because the greens were a shit show. Berger is a solid gut play this week coming off his 38th place finish where he gained strokes in every category other than those "shitshow" greens. Sabbs is just hot right now and scoring like cray cray. Dude was making eagles last week all the while rocking that god awful shirt. Cauley checks all the boxes for me right now in addition to his 28 strokes gained here over the last 4 years. Norlander comes off a T9 last week and is a ball striking robot. Whatever tournament the ball decides to go in the hole off the putter face...watch out. He'll win. Si Woo loves Pete Dye designs (Players Champ) and despite missing a ton of cuts...also has a ton of win equity at 125/1. Finally Harrington...he hasn't done much since getting his card this season, but he's a bomber and feasted on Par 5's on the KFT. Remember people...Adam Long won this last year at eleventy - nine under. 

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He ranks 96th in the field in strokes gained putting on bermuda

• His top 10 odds are +600 or 14.29% implied odds

• The last 7 times he's been owned greater than 14.3% he's finished outside of the top 20. All 7 times. 

• Last week he had his 2nd lowest driving accuracy against the field in almost a year

• He's 88th in the field in par 5 scoring his last 50 rounds

• He's 61st in the field in the most popular approach shot bucket (150-175)

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 8 of his last 10 events

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 84th in birdie or better %

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 107th in eagles gained

• He loses strokes against his baseline on easy to hit fairway courses 

• He loses major strokes against his baseline on par 72's

At 17.4% projected ownership on Fantasy National (4th highest, & I think will be even higher), Russell Knox, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

You want to know what triggers me to no end. People who don’t put there damn grocery carts back in the bins around the parking lot or in the store. It drives me nuts. Is it that hard? Hell, you can even make a game of it like I do and roll it halfway across the parking lot to try and hit the bin. I’m really good at it too. You just have to have a good feel for the breaks and slopes of the pavement like a putting green. Anyway, don’t be that guy that just leaves it in a parking spot. Did anyone else play Herbie Derbie when you were teenagers and just started driving? You know, where you would hang out the back window of your buddy’s car with one of those big rolling trash cans and try and take out a mailbox? I distinctly remember having one hit where I absolutely just lit up an entire row of mailboxes. I mean absolute destruction. I’m pretty sure that might be a federal crime but the statute of limitations has definitely run out on that. Speaking of lighting things up. I’ve recently tried these CBD drops everyone is talking about. Not sure what the big deal is and I don’t know if I can really feel any effects. I’d rather just try the real stuff. I hear it’s WAAAAY better. Just sayin. That’s all I got folks. Enjoy The American Express this week, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last years AmEx (remember this data is only from the Stadium course):

1. Gooch 2. Mickelson 3. Lashley 4. Thompson 5. Kokrak 6. Sloan 7. Landry 8. Davis 9. Glover 10. Berger

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at PGA West (min 2 appearances): 

1. Putnam 2. Landry 3. Chappell 4. CH3 5. Glover 6. Streelman 7. Swafford 8. Lashley 9. Knox 10. Kokrak

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

 1. McCarthy 2. Malnati 3. Burns 4. Poston 5. CH3 6. Taylor 7. Putnam 8. English 9. Fowler 10. Gay

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ easy scoring, par 72, on par 72's your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 12 rounds):

1. Mickelson 2. Knox 3. Glover 4. ZJ 5. Cook 6. Casey 7. Steele 8. CH3 9. Todd 10. Swafford

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairways and less than 7200 yards your top 10 is (min 12 rounds):

1. Chez 2. Moore 3. Taylor 4. Glover 5. Casey 6. Kisner 7. Kokrak 8. Walker 9. Dufner 10. Stanley

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Taylor 2. English 3. Stanley 4. Trahan 5. Wise 6. Norlander 7. NeSmith 8. Berger 9. Knox 10. Sabbatini

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at PGA West, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Im 2. Casey 3. Fowler 4. Scheffler 5. Wolff 6. Noren 7. McCarthy 8. Munoz 9. Norlander 10. Sabbatini

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Chez 2. Kokrak 3. Harman 4. Stuard 5. Henley 6. Straka 7. Piercy 8. Stanley 9. ZJ 10. Hoge

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Hadley 2. Every 3. Armour 4. Steele 5. Stanley 6. Knox 7. Zhang 8. Higgs 9. Laird 10. Wolff

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Molinari 2. Cook 3. Cink 4. Steele 5. English 6. Reavie 7. Vegas 8. Munoz 9. Tringale 10. Putnam

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG