AMEX 22 Heavy Petting

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If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

• First 3 round course rotations: Stadium > La Quinta > Nicklaus, La Quinta > Nicklaus > Stadium, Nicklaus > Stadium > La Quinta // Saturday appears to be the only day w/ wind...I'd lean guys on the Stadium for Saturday if you're stacking, but it's likely not going to matter w/ these courses playing so similar.

• Avg winning score in recent years is around -24. The Sportsbooks have the O/U at 25.5. It's a birdie fest. Birdie fest Pro Am style w/ easy pin positions, guaranteed 3 rounds means HIGH VARIANCE. Plan accordingly.

• 9 of the last 12 AMEX winners had odds of 55/1 or longer pre tournament. #LongShotSZN

• 11 of the last 14 winners played the Sony Open the week before, PAT!

• Cantlay broke the Stadium course record by 2 shots last year on Sunday w/ a 61.

• Green surfaces are pretty pure with both POA and Bermuda. Not grainy. Not bumpy. If weighting putting at all...just consider SG: P overall on any surface.

• If you're betting, consider saving some units to bet this event LIVE...given the variance and the long shot history of winners.

• Any type of player can win here (ie Brian Gay, Adam Long, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, etc). If you're looking at stats, BoB% or DK Scoring is crucial. Then, SG: APP, SG: OTT (distance an advantage, but not a must here), and recent form.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's AmEx: 1. Si Woo 2. Finau 3. Fowler 4. Cantlay 5. Huh 6. Sabbatini 7. List 8. Steele 9. Knox 10. Burgoon

2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bermuda/poa grass: 1. Todd 2. Hadley 3. C Bez 4. Long 5. Rodgers 6. Reed 7. Harman 8. Tringale 9. Griffin 10. Whaley

3. Strokes gained T2G leaders the last 3 calendar months: 1. List 2. Rai 3. Conners 4. Knox 5. Rahm 6. Im 7. Henley 8. Scheffler 9. Gooch 10. Merritt

4. On courses that are <7200 yards, easy scoring & bermuda/poa greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. Rahm 2. CH3 3. Ancer 4. Si Woo 5. Knox 6. Glover 7. Rose 8. Hadwin 9. Mickelson 10. Conners

5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses <7200 yards, short rough, & easy scoring: 1. Ancer 2. Conners 3. Cantlay 4. Woodland 5. Redman 6. Moore 7. Glover 8. Kraft 9. Rose 10. Knox

6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. Rahm 3. Wolff 4. Vegas 5. Power 6. Ryder 7. Lebioda 8. Henley 9. Im 10. Cantlay

7. Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important this week, your top 10 the last 50 rounds: 1. Rahm 2. Scheffler 3. Power 4. Wolff 5. C. Kim 6. Im 7. Ramey 8. Tway 9. Tringale 10. Cantlay

8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Knox 2. List 3. Zalatoris 4. Cantlay 5. C. Kim 6. Conners 7. Laird 8. Sigg 9. Tringale 10. Rodgers

9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Grillo 2. Reavie 3. Glover 4. Svensson 5. Hoge 6. Steele 7. Gooch 8. Finau 9. Rahm 10. Ryder

10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Rahm 2. Moore 3. Cantlay 4. K Lee 5. Whaley 6. Bramlett 7. List 8. Smalley 9. Mullinax 10. Pendrith

Justin Lower$6,300 on DK550/1 Outright (FanDuel)+1000 for Top 20

Justin Lower is the journeyman of the 50 that made it from the KFT last season. He finished 30th on the order of merit for the season and then finished 15th at the Tour Finals to secure his PGA TOUR card this season by 1 shot. The 32 year old, Ohio native made 24 of 39 cuts with 2 runner ups and 13 top 25s on the KFT. He averaged 298 yards off the tee (good for 109th on KFT…good Lord), and 58th in Driving Accuracy. He was 13th in GIR% and top 25 in scoring average. His short game is pretty solid. He finished 19th in Scrambling and top 50 in putting average. From what we hear…he’s a veteran with a ton of experience, some thick skin, and a grinder mentality. He feels like a Joel Dahmen type in terms of his game and attitude.

Max McGreevy$6,200 on DK430/1 Outright (FanDuel)+900 for Top 20

McGravy train is a young stud seemingly destined to make some noise on the PGA TOUR this season. Max played for Oklahoma (born and raise there as well), and won 3 individual NCAA titles and 2 All American awards while setting the 18 hole scoring record at Oklahoma. Kid can go stupid low when he’s on. He spent some time on the Mackenzie Tour and then was the order of merit winner on the PGA TOUR China series before crushing it on the KFT last season. He only made 22 of 41 cuts, but of the 22 made…he had 15 top 25s, 7 top 10s, 2 3rds, a runner up and a victory. He seems to be the definition of a high variance player that could trunk slam one week and win the next. He lacks distance off the tee, but he finished 28th in Driving Accuracy and 49th in GIR%. The dude can chip and putt his Oklahoma dick off though. He finished 16th in scrambling and 11th in putting last season. Friend of the podcast, and now Max’s new caddie, Brett Swedberg said he can get stupid hot with the flat stick. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Sony, and he’s made 3 cuts out of his first 6 PGA TOUR starts. But, 2 of his made cuts were a T16 and a T19. If he’s a lower $6K option on DK at a course that doesn’t demand distance…he could be a nice MME GPP play given his variance and upside.

Reed vs. Finau