Amex 22 Chalk Bomb

View this email in your browser

With everyone getting a guaranteed 3 rounds in at PGA West, it appears that the only weather question we really have to consider is how the wind on Saturday could impact our players. Thursday, Friday and Sunday all look rather benign in terms of wind, but Saturday will see steady winds between 15-18mph with gusts in the 20s. Remember, with everyone split up between 3 courses, tee times are from 8:40am local time to 10:40am. So, with 6 hour pro am rounds, the last guys on the course should be done around 5pm local time at the latest.So the question is which course do I want my guys on by Saturday? Well, in our 7 years of doing this, we've asked a number of PGA TOUR pros and caddies this exact question: Would you rather be on an easy or difficult course on a day where the weather is a big factor? The unanimous answer has always been, "I'd rather be on the more difficult course on the more difficult day." Guys don't want to feel like they've got to get their birdie limit and shoot -6 on a tougher course in tough conditions. When they're going into a round knowing they've got to play smart and manage their way around a tougher track, then adding the weather as an additional layer of difficulty isn't a big deal. Touts will tell you a different story, but we've asked at least a dozen players and caddies, and this is the answer. Set your lineups and place your bets accordingly. If you're playing a lot of DFS GPP entries, then maybe stack some playing the Stadium on Saturday and some playing La Quinta on Saturday. Then, mix and match the rest. These courses all play fairly easy anyway, so the gap isn't wide enough to go crazy on the stacks, but in the event of a tiebreaker...it could help you make a decision.  

List -113 vs. Zalatoris -117

This line caught my eye, and for some reason I see it as a positive for both players. I guess if anything, it looks better for Luke List backers as he's nearly a coin flip to Willy Z, but he's $1100 cheaper in DFS. Both ownership projections for List and Willy Z are between 8-12% no matter where you look. But you don't typically think of Luke as in the same class or caliber of player as Willy Z yet we find the line very close. Plus, the line really hasn't moved at all since opening. 

List is also a favorite over J. Vegas slightly, but Willy Z is a massive favorite over Vegas at -140 to +105. That line has moved a little bit more towards Willy, but not much. I think both guys are in play for DFS at very minimal ownership, both are big time DK Scorers, both can get red hot, and both have West Coast roots. Luke's got a boom or bust experience here at PGA West, but this is a boom or bust event that really caters to these guys style of play in my opinion. I wouldn't bet either side of this particular H2H, but I think I'm riding with both in DFS tournaments.

Henley -123 vs. Ancer +105

This one is VERRRRRYYYYY interesting as Pat and I debated how Henley would bounce back after Sunday. I seem to be one of the more bullish touts in the Twittersphere in terms of Henley this week. I don't see how he really choked it away last week. Hideki just took it by force. Henley's ball striking remains in the upper echelon of the PGA TOUR on a fairly regular basis. That's not something you could say about him in his previous starts here at the AMEX where he primarily has had his Sunday schedule free up after 3 rounds.

But, Henley's a different player coming into this event and I believe the PGA TOUR winner can continue his stellar play. The H2H bettors AND the books tend to agree with me as Henley opened at and remains a H2H favorite against Ancer, Tringale, and Wolff. He also opened at even money against everyone's new favorite Seamus Power and the line has since moved to favor Henley slightly at -113 to -104.

Ancer is projected across multiple sites as a top 3 to 5 highest owned player at somewhere between 23-38%. Henley is currently projected between 8-14%, plus the $200 price savings on DK. 

Sungjae -108 vs. Conners -108

I was surprised a little by this line. Conners opened and remains a big underdog against the 3 at the top in Rahm, Cantlay and Scheffler. And I think for good reason. However, I was surprised to see the premier ball striker a coin flip against Sungjae, as well as Finau. And, neither the line against Im or Finau has moved since opening.

In my mind, Conners felt like the safest (highest floor) guy between the three of these guys with Sungjae's missed cut last week throwing me off a little. Conners has still only won 1 PGA TOUR event, but feels like he's been extremely close a number of times. 

Conners is a $500-700 price savings compared to Im and Finau. All of these guys are projected around 15-17%. Sungjae is a -119 favorite over Finau at +102, so I guess the books would rank these guys Im, Conners, Finau. But, they're all pretty close in terms of where the lines have moved as of Wednesday afternoon. 

All in all, I think I still lean Conners in DFS, but let's all keep an eye on ownership percentages into Thursday morning and see if one of these guys dip to gain some nice leverage.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The Chalk Bomb so far this 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season has been pretty nails (credit to me...DB). I've done a solid job since taking over for Chalk Bomb Founder, Ben Little.The key word for this week is "VARIANCE." It's been documented in this email, the HP email that went out yesterday, our podcasts, our blog content and on social media. You've got 2 guys at the top with a 23% implied odds chance of winning and after that...it's a total guess. You've got Adam Long winning in 2019 at 600/1 on the heels of so many MC's. You've got Pro Am 6 hour rounds and 3 different courses in 3 days. It's a recipe for chaos in DFS GPPs.Abe Ancer is projected at to be one of the more popular plays this week. I've scoured 3 different trusted ownership websites, and he's projected at 32%, 21% and 16% (top 5 highest owned guy in all 3). Honestly, unless your name is Jon Rahm or Patrick Cantlay, then I've already given you enough logic to fade anyone in the field.But Abe gives us more reasons than just ownership + variance. He trunk slammed at the Sony last week. He finished near DFS at the Sentry. He was a combined -4.7 SG:T2G in Hawaii. If you look at his ball striking (OTT + APP) numbers since his victory in August, they look vastly different than they did leading up to his win. In his last 7 shotlink measured events since his win, Abe's SG:T2G total is a whopping 4.5. In the 7 events prior to his win...his SG:T2G. total as 35.1!Abe also opened and remains a dog in the H2H Matchup's (where the big money wager on golf) in 3 of his 5 matchups. He's an underdog to Gooch, Power, and Henley. Yes! Russell Henley! Gooch is projected around 15%, Power around 18%, and Henley around 13%!  At 25% (3rd or 4th highest) projected ownership, Abraham Ancer...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I don’t like that meals have to be so regimented and classified during the day as “Breakfast, Lunch, Dinner, and Dessert”. Seems a little archaic to me. If I want to have dessert in the morning that should be fine. Or a bacon, egg and cheese at 4 pm that should be ok also. Or hell, what if I just want to eat them all at the same time? Don’t be putting all these meal time rules on me.  Speaking of breakfast, a pancake is not a cake. It should be called a pan flatbiscuit. Or something like that.  When we watch movies or tv shows with dinosaurs they always make a sound that’s screeching, or growling, or something else annoying and mean sounding. How the hell do we actually know what they sounded like in the first place? They could have made pleasant whistling noises for all we know.  Poor Letter X. It’s so underused. I mean, the only time X really gets attention is in mathematics and that’s not fun at all. I wish I had the letter X in my name so I could use it more.  Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you have a great week for The American Express. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

Forward