Amex 2023 HP

HP 🍑 for The American Express 2023

January 18, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

We have finally made it back to the continental U.S. and we have our early Thursday morning action back. The downside is we end up with this piece of shit putting contest, a 3 course rotation, and a shottracker-less 5 hour round shit show. The real shame is the Stadium Course, which the players play exclusively on Sunday as an absolute beauty and I've heard many mid-handicaps describe it as their favorite course ever!

As I reference course notes over the last 5 years, it's incredibly important to find the fairways, particularly around the Stadium Course which typically plays the most difficult. That's why we have seen players like Andrew Landry and Abe Ancer compete. We also have highlighted in the notes, "FADE THE TOP", this is 100% the type of course where you can feel confident rolling out a couple of longshots in triple digit odds. Here are some other notes worth consideration:

  • 10 of the last 13 AMEX winners had odds of 55/1 or longer pre tournament. #LongShotSZN

  • 12 of the last 15 winners played the Sony Open the week before, PAT!

  • Cantlay broke the Stadium course record by 2 shots in 2021 on Sunday w/ a 61.

  • Green surfaces are pretty pure with both POA and Bermuda. Not grainy. Not bumpy. If weighting putting at all...just consider SG: P overall on any surface.

  • If you're betting, consider saving some units to bet this event LIVE...given the variance and the long shot history of winners and potential advantages given the course rotation.

  • Any type of player can win here (ie Brian Gay, Adam Long, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, etc). If you're looking at stats, BoB% or DK Scoring is crucial. Then, SG: APP, SG: OTT (distance an advantage, but not a must here), and recent form.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the Stadium Course at PGA West:

It's important to understand that anytime we get these atypical events with super limited strokes gained data from years past, we can often over analyze stats and course draws based on inherently volatile numbers. Even stats like Driving Accuracy is hard to have a firm stance on because on many holes, if you miss on one side of the fairway you are in the water and taking a drop, but the other side can leave you a decent look out of some of the least penal rough on Tour.

All in all, we recommend looking more at long term form and players who have shown an uptick in performance at "birdie-fests". It's a good week to simplify things from a stat model standpoint and focus in on BOB rates on easy scoring conditions while sprinkling in some course history. Speaking of course history, here are your top 8 and bottom 8 in strokes gained at the Amex.

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 10 rounds) at Stadium Course: Putnam, Hadwin, Dufner, Harman, Landry, Martin, Werenski, Ryder

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 10 rounds) at Stadium Course: Sabbatini, Stuard, Glover, Vegas, Poston, ZJ, Steele, Huh.

2 DFS Sleepers for the AMEX

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 12 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Weighted SG: Approach leaders last 36 rounds: 1. Zalatoris  2. T Kim  3. Schauffele  4. Hoge  5. Scheffler  6.  Si Woo  7.  Knox  8. Finau  9.  Martin  10.  Yuan2. Fantasy Points gained on the field last 36 rounds: 1. Finau  2. Montgomery  3. T Kim  4.  Schauffele  5. Cantlay  6. Zalatoris  7. Rahm  8. Young  9. Detry  10. C. Davis3. Proximity Leaders last 50 rounds from 150-175 yards:  1. T Kim  2. Zalatoris  3. Rose  4. Walker  5. Kodaira  6. Bryan  7. Lower  8. Roy  9. Hubbard  10. Barnes4. Leaders in Total SG Adjustment for Course Fit at PGA West via DataGolf: 1. Matthews  2. Westmoreland  3. Brehm  4. Cone  5. Burmester  6. Schmid  7. Bramlett  8. Vegas  9. Werbylo  10. Clark5. Top 10 in SG: ARG on Bermuda Grass greens last 36 rounds: 1. Willett  2. Si Woo  3. Bez  4. Kirk  5. Sabbatini  6. Piercy  7. Putnam  8. An  9. Burmester  10. Scheffler6. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained in the last 24 rounds with easy scoring conditions: 1. Hoge  2. Scheffler  3. Lashley  4. Cantlay  5. Rai  6. Dufner  7. Smalley  8. Kodaira  9. SH Kim  10. Finau7. Top 10 Players in True Strokes Gained at the Stadium Course over last 8 rounds via Datagolf: 1. Si Woo  2. Putnam  3. Im  4. Hadwin  5. Rahm  6. Hoge  7. Harman  8. Finau  9. Dufner  10. KH Lee8. Leaders in Par 6 scoring from combined total yardage of 500-600 yard par 5s: 1. Im  2. Westmoreland  3. Jaeger  4. C. Davis  5. Vegas  6. Cantlay  7. Zalatoris  8. Smalley  9. Hadwin  10. Pendrith9. Top 10 in Sand Save percentage over the last 36 rounds: 1. Gordon  2. An  3. Shelton  4. SH Kim  5. Long  6. Montgomery  7. Thompson  8. Lingmerth  9. Gay  10. Haley II10. Top 10 in Fantasy Projected Points for the Amex: 1. Finau  2. Cantlay  3. Young  4. Rahm  5. T Kim  6. Montgomery  7. Hoge  8. Detry  9. Scheffler  10. Harman

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