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Current weather projections show very little to no wind all week and it appears like we are going to get sunny, but slightly cold conditions. Mid 50's but still looks we are going to get pretty standard Southern California Desert-dome golf.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Cameron Young -128 ($9100) vs. Tom Kim +107 ($9500)

Here we have a quite interesting matchup of highly contrasting styles of play. We also have a discrepancy between the Head to Head Matchup betting price and the Draftkings Pricing. You're going to have to pay up and extra $400 for Tom Kim in Draftkings, yet you are able to secure + Money on the matchup line which is always intriguing.Utilizing data from the last 36 rounds for each player, Tom Kim has a win probability rate in this matchup of 58.28%. The betting line likely bakes in some recency bias as we save tournament favorite Tom Kim lay an absolute dud last week at the Sony Open.We think it's important to take a more holistic approach when analyzing these matchups and looking more at long term data which seems to be in favor of Kim. On the flip side however, if you are inclined to trust the bookmakers price, Cameron Young looks like an ideal pivot at a cheaper price in DFS.

Sam Burns -110 ($9400) vs. Taylor Montgomery -110 ($8900)

Another intriguing matchup here as the sharpest market making sportsbook have made this a dead even matchup while Draftkings has these two players priced with a $500 gap.It's interesting because while they both share a similar skillset, Burns has long been quite volatile in terms of results while Montgomery has been ridiculously consistent from the Fall into the new year. Datagolf projections give Montgomery a slight edge to Top 5 this week at 9.4% while Burns checks in at 7.5%.It will be important to pay close attention to ownership projections as the week progresses with these 2 players. Currently, Fantasy National has currently is projecting Burns (8%) at roughly half of the ownership of Montgomery (14%)

Si Woo Kim -110 ($9200) vs. Tom Hoge -110 ($8400)

The main objective of these matchup listings is to not necessarily take a side, but to relay information and discrepancies between the bookmaker odds and DFS Pricing to use to your advantage. This is one of the bigger spreads we have seen in terms of an even betting matchup and $800 price gap in DFS.This is another one where ownership will likely dictate the proper move. Current projections have Tom Hoge checking in at 17.4% which is really high for the 8k range. Si Woo on the other hand is projected at 11.2% ownership via Fantasy National's Calculated Ownership Projection.You know we love some Si Woo, but it should be noted that he has missed the cut in the tournament after getting a win in all 3 prior victories. The irons have been dialed in, with Si Woo ranking 2nd in the entire field over the last 12 rounds in SG: Approach. The guy who ranks 1st...Tom Hoge.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Last week's chalk bomb Corey Conners ended up making a Sunday run up the leaderboard but still failed to record a top 10 finish. While a 12th place finish is nothing to brag about in terms of the CB, I think our main reasoning that you can't rely on narratives and data that would suggest he's all the sudden a great putter at the Sony was sound...he lost 3.8 strokes putting. Standard Conners stuff.

For the CB this week, Fantasy National currently has this player in the top 5 of projected ownership in the entire field. There's a lot to like with the upside of this player as a whole for the season, but there are some concerning elements that have made him worthy of the Chalk Bomb this week.

He's only played this event one time in his career, with a middling T40 finish. Per DataGolf, with data of course only registered at the Stadium Course which has shottracker, his true strokes gained numbers were -2.15 and he was -2.44 strokes below his standard expectation in PGA Tour events.Diving into specifics on this players skill-set, there is reason for concern that suggests his main asset is somewhat mitigated based on how the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Course play out. There is a LOT of water out there! When your main differentiating asset is the big stick, and you show up to a tournament where we have seen Andrew Landry and Adam Long win recently, it tends to level the playing field a bit.The course itself is not penal in regards to the rough, but you will lose strokes on the field quickly if you miss fairways and end up wet. For the majority of players, all the par 5's are easily reachable and you won't have more than a 7 iron into the greens on the par 4's. Being accurate and in the fairway is more important than hitting it past everyone else this week. The CB has been a negative in terms of driving accuracy in his last 6 consecutive events.Furthermore, the iron play has been slipping which is troubling. In three of his last four measured starts, he has lost strokes on Approach per Fantasy National. Don't get me wrong, Draftkings has priced this player at a very lucrative price that I think will garner the attention immediately of most users when opening up the slate.There are just too many aspects of this players game that we don't think are firing on all optimal cylinders right now. If you couple that with the fact that we have an inherently strange format this week between the course rotation, pro am involvement, and easier than normal scoring conditions that open up a ton of options in this field, I think it makes this player a prime candidate to fade.At 20% (top 5 highest), Mr. Cameron Young, you my friend are the CHALK BOMB!

I don't like the saying "you shouldn't judge a book by it's cover." I mean, that literally defeats the whole purpose of having the cover.I'm not sure who needs to know this but I learned this past weekend that a group of raccoons is called a nursery or a gaze. Just FYI.No one who ever ate a hot dog out of package is eating it raw. You're just eating it unheated. Stop acting like you're doing something so abnormal. It's wild that cows turn hay into milk.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the American Express and the carnage that could ensue. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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