The American Express 2024 Chalk 💣

As expected in the California Desert this time of year, cool mornings will give way to sunshine and warm days this week for the Amex. As of Wednesday, it feels safe to say wind will not be a factor in the slightest with low single-digit breezes expected throughout the week.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Taylor Montgomery -105 ($8100) vs. Rickie Fowler -115 ($9200)

A T54 in Fowler’s first start in 2024 has the sharp handicappers fading the Puma Prince. Despite Rickie’s significantly more expensive DFS price tag, he’s just a short favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Taylor Montgomery.

Perhaps this is down to Monty’s excellent (and extremely limited) course history. He putted his way to a 5th-place finish last year in his first start at the Amex. Rickie, on the other hand, has six prior starts in the Coachella Valley but has managed just one top-10 finish.

Early ownership projections for these two agree with the betting odds. Our Nut Hut data shows Montgomery is hovering around 12% with Rickie less than half that at 5.5%

Si Woo Kim -148 ($8600) vs. Shane Lowry +118 ($8700)

There’s probably not two more different guys on Tour than Shane and Si Woo, and despite a very similar DFS price, oddsmakers are much higher on the South Korean Prince this week in the desert.

While this isn’t the most predictive event with regard to previous history, Si Woo’s ample experience here is an advantage compared to Lowry’s complete lack thereof. While Shane is making his first start in this event, Kim is making his fifth straight, and let’s not forget he won the Amex back in 2021.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, both of these guys are not expected to be chalky plays with Si Woo trending toward roughly 10% ownership and Lowry closer to 7%.

Stephan Jaeger -130 ($7900) vs. Adam Hadwin +100 ($8400)

Lastly, we have a major discrepancy in the 7-8k price range on DraftKings as Stephan Jaeger comes in $500 cheaper than Adam Hadwin despite being a major favorite in the sharp head-to-head market.

Both of these players have plenty of experience in this event — particularly Hadwin, who racked up four straight top-10 finishes from 2016 to 2019. Nevertheless, the oddsmakers favor Jaeger who’s coming off a solid T18 finish last week in Hawaii.

Jaeger and Hadwin are neck-and-neck in our projected ownership models as well as both are right around 11-12%. For those looking for a lean, perhaps tailing the sharps is the play between these two otherwise similar options in the low-8k / high-7k range.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Jack Nicklaus, the winningest golfer of all time once said, “Golf is not a game you own — at best, you just rent it for a while.” Well Jack, it looks like my rent is due.

After flexing all over my debut chalk of choice Viktor Hovland, last week at the Sony has me eating an oven full of humble pie that tastes an awful lot like Ben An. And no, that’s not a particularly good flavor. Not only did the South Korean vastly outperform his $8700 DFS price tag, but the dude might’ve won the whole tournament if not for a long-range bomb from Grayson Murray.

So in two weeks, I’ve already lived the heights and depths of the Chalk Bomb life. With my first L out of the way early, here’s my pick to get back in the win column at the Amex. With a lot of star power making up the top of the ownership projections, it’s gonna take some guts to fade this week’s Chalk Bomb.

It’s tough to single out too many course statistics when this week’s action will take place across three layouts, but there are some notable numbers and trends courtesy of our friends at Bet the Number that I’d like to examine.

The analysts at BTN have pinpointed approach play, specifically from short and long-range, as key differentiators this week. With the gettable par-5s and green-light, pro-am pins, the ability to stuff it in tight from these ranges will be necessary to keep up with the birdie-fest. This week’s Chalk Bomb is a world-class ball striker, but over his last 40 rounds, his SG: APP numbers in the short/long ranges don’t stack up relative to this field.

This player ranks 36th in the field in SG: APP from 80-150 over his last 40 rounds, and a surprising 84th in SG: APP from 175-250. And with par-5 scoring a major factor this week, it’s not a good look to see him rank outside the top 30 in that category as well.

Admittedly, I had to look pretty hard for some stats that paint a negative picture of this household name. Ultimately, this player is the Chalk Bomb because of how he compares to similar stars in his DFS price range. This player is one of the favorites for a reason, but the initial linemakers favor the other big names in the head-to-head markets.

Despite a slightly more expensive DFS price tag than Patrick Cantlay, the Chalk Bomb is a whopping +112 vs -142 underdog to Patty Ice in a 72-hole matchup. That’s not to mention the MAJOR odds on this player against Scottie Scheffler, where the World No. 1 is a -200 favorite against our Bomb.

He might have a great week. Hell, he did last year when he finished T3. But at this price point, it will take a similar finish to reward those who roster him in DFS, and I won’t be one of them.

So… Xander Schauffele, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I don’t understand why Lions are “Kings of the Jungle”. I mean, they don’t even reside there.

Being constantly late is technically ideal because you hardly ever have to wait on anyone.

I saw a grown male excitedly purchasing a valentine card last week at the grocery store. WTF dude. It’s over a month away. Procrastinate like the rest of us. Jerk.

I’m driving a rental Toyota Rav4 at the moment while my truck is in the shop getting some repairs (thanks honey!). You wouldn’t believe how many of these things are on the road. It’s like I’m part of a whole new temporary family of Rav’s (that’s what I call our members) I get to experience. Exhilarating.

Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy a birdie bonanza at The American Express. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!