No La-Quin-ta No Problem

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Well guys, you know what they say...you can't birdie em all if you don't birdie #1. Last week was just about as good a start as we could have asked for. We hit 2 out of 3 top-20 bets in the first week of my new video segment that can be found on the TJ Youtube channel, I had an out-right bet on Kevin Na, & he was my highest owned player in DFS. What should have been a monster week was slightly dampened by the fact that I did not play Webb or Niemann, but it was a very solid start to the year. And of course, the Chalk Bomb missed the cut which always makes for an empty Twitter mentions on the weekend. Onward to the desert!So we have a pretty big change in format for 2021. The La Quinta course, which was far & away the easiest course in the rota, is out. That means 1 round on PGA West, one round on the Nicklaus course, cut, then the final two rounds back to PGA West. The scoring should certainly be more difficult this year, as tour pros only hit about 65% of their GIR's at PGA West which is right at tour average. Still, in the final round last year we had two players fire 63's & all 4 of the par 5's are reachable in 2 for the vast majority of the field. We've also got some interesting game theory decisions to make as the highest-priced player (Cantlay) is only $11.1k which is going to create some super chalky pockets in the mid 7k-8k range. 

(Image from DataGolf) PGA West & the Nicklaus course are pretty straight forward bomb & gouge courses. This is easy to see in the data as driving accuracy is way below tour average here and average driving distance is way above average (despite most elite players skipping the event every year).  The same point is also illustrated above as you can see on an absolute basis driving distance has the highest correlation with success. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Davis vs. Kirk

Davis -128 vs. Kirk +110

I'm really hoping that both of these guys fly under the radar this week. If you read the 10 stats, you'll see Cam Davis is mentioned 3 times. He was great off the tee last week, gaining 6.3 strokes on the field, and should be able to do it again on this bomb & gouge track. He's 2 for 2 in cuts made at PGA West, and has been above field average in GIR's hit both years. Pop quiz...who's #1 in the field the last 50 rounds in birdie or better scoring & #2 in DK scoring? Yes sir, Mr. Cam Davis. What a story from Chris Kirk last week! Dude HAD to finish T-3 or better to keep full status on the PGA tour, & just goes out & gets it done. He was rock solid across the board, breaking even off the tee & gaining at least 2.3 strokes everywhere else. He's one of those really streaky guys that you want to ride while they're hot, and with an incredible weight off his shoulders, I think it frees him up to go out & play well again. He's a good bermuda putter, does his best work on easier, short courses, and only saw a $600 price increase.

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MATCHUP 2

Scheffler vs. Finau

Scheffler -115 vs. Finau -105

Scottie Scheffler is too cheap this week, there, I said it. I'd be almost willing to guarantee at the higher stakes he'll be the highest owned player on the board. As you can see from the H2H pricing, Scottie is 1k cheaper than Finau, yet the H2H favorite. Both guys rank in the top 10 for birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds, & both are in the top 14 for strokes gained on par 5's. Both guys worst putting surface is....bermuda! So it really just boils down to form & history. Form I would argue is a push....they've both played 'ok' the last 2 months, combining for 1 top 10 between the two of them. The course history edge I would give a very slight nod to Scottie, but it's close. So what to do? I think it's a pretty easy decision given what should be a large ownership difference for 2 very similar players. Scottie in H2H's & Finau in DFS. 

MATCHUP 3

Burns vs. Harman

Burns -125 vs. Harman -105

I wanted to discuss Sam Burns in this section because like Scottie, I expect him to be the most popular play in the 8k range. He was another guy that popped up quite often in the 10 stats (6 times in fact). He's in the top 10 in the field for: strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Am Ex, % rds gained putting leaders on bermuda, top 10 in birdies or better, strokes gained on par 5's, top 10 in GIR's gained last 12 rounds, and a good value compared to Fanduel pricing. And after all that, he's only a -125 favorite over little ole Brian Harman. In 2019, here is a list of the places Brian Harman finished in the top 10 at: The Players, Travelers, 3M, Wyndham, & Greenbrier. What do all those have in common? They are all short courses with bermuda greens and easy scoring....just like PGA West. As much as I like Burns this week, these can be the kinds of tradeoffs that are the difference between winning a GPP & finishing 500th. 

Other interesting lines:Tringale -125 vs. McNealy +107CH3 -134 vs. Kizzire +115Redman -117 vs. Huh +100Dahmen -130 vs. Knox +111Wise -123 vs. Hadwin +105Henley -162 vs. Long +138Im -108 vs. Scheffler -108Reed -117 vs. Koepka +101

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He has mediocre course history at best. He's played here 3 times & has been below field average in GIR's hit

• He's in the slightly worse weather draw, playing the easier course on a colder, windier day

• Bermuda is his worst putting surface

• He gains the least amount of strokes on easy courses

• At the TOC he lost 3.4 strokes tee to green

• Despite a top 5 price, he's 31st in the field in ball striking

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 59th in the field opps gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 65th in GIR's gained

• On easy scoring courses, this guy is 53rd in the field in strokes gained tee to green

• This is projected to be his 2nd highest ownership in the last calendar year

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 8 of his last 13 events

At 17.8% actual lineups generated % on Fantasy National (6th highest), Patrick Reed, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Do dentists go to other dentists? Just curious

Have you ever stopped to think about how weird clapping hands is? You literally start hitting yourself when you like something

Ever noticed that girls with straight hair will curl it for special occasions & girls with curly hair will straighten it? Always makes me laugh when I think about that

We make pizza's as a circle, yet eat them as a triangle...there's a lesson in there somewhere

We (me, you) probably know more Latin, a dead language, than we do Mandarin, the most common language

A lot of people hate bees simply because wasps are such assholes...and yellow jackets!

If you really think about it, you've probably seen more of the moon's surface (in person) than the Earth's surface

I was watching something on Nat Geo the other day & had the realization that I assume all skulls are male. Probably not a correct assumption 

Alright, that’s all I got. Good luck this week for the Am Ex and may your screens be green!