9K List Email #3

Don't miss it again this week 💰

June 17, 2020

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to the weekly Chalk Bomb email from the Tour Junkies and get a shot at free merch from the Augusta National Pro Shop in November! 

In the meantime, continue reading for a peek at just some of this week's Chalk Bomb content for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. This comes to your inbox every Wednesday night before lineups lock in DFS and betting cards are finalized on Thursday. It's the greatest piece of last minute PGA Tour advice in the industry. Enjoy your sample and go

now!

Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's a pickem against someone $600 cheaper (& he's already priced at his cheapest DFS price...ever!)

  • Despite good course history, over the course of his last 6 rounds here he's LOST total strokes ball striking

  • This week he's projected for his highest ownership in almost 18 months!

  • Heading into the break he had lost total strokes in 10 of his last 16 events, & just over his last 10 events he's averaged losing 1.1 strokes to the field

  • Out of his last 24 events, he's lost strokes on approach shots in 17 of them

  • He's lost strokes off the tee in 9 of his last 12 events

  • His driving accuracy has been below field average for 14 of his last 15 events

  • Despite his cheapest DFS price ever, there are still 19 players cheaper than him that are ranked higher in projected DFS points

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 144th in the field in strokes gained ball striking

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 130th in the field in strokes gained on par 4's

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 135th in the 2 main approach shot buckets

At 13% calculated ownership (8th highest), Jordan Spieth, you're the Chalk Bomb! The reality is that yes, Jordan has great history here, but he's been #bad for going on 2 years now. It's certainly not impossible that he found something during the break, but if he shits the bed this week, he's going to go straight back to being 5% owned like he was most weeks leading up to The Players. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.How about that 70/1 Berger hit last week fam! You're welcome. Now, up 65 units since the start of the new season. On to this week, full disclosure...I'm at the beach this week on vacation, so this is going to be a shorter write up, but I feel just as well prepared for the week as ever. As of this afternoon, there will be a morning edge tomorrow for First Round Leader bets as the wind is expected to pick up a good bit for the PM wave. I feel pretty confident your FRL(s) will come from that AM group. 

Through 19 Weeks: Spent $950 / Won $1600 / Up 65 unitsOutright WinnerDahmen (90/1)_$5, Poston (70/1)_$10, Kisner (55/1)_$5First Round LeaderNesmith & Burgoon (both 125/1)_$5 each, Higgs (100/1)_$5,Dahmen & An (80/1)_$5, Hovland (70/1)_$5

All those FRL bets are early wave. I love this group of AM'ers. I feel like we'll be hitting one of those and that will give us degens some live betting cash to sprinkle in right off the rip! You'll notice a lighter outright card as a result of all the FRL action since there appears to be an edge there. Like last week, it's going to be extremely difficult for someone at 125/1 or worse to win this golf tournament given the strength of this field. I like that all 3 of these guys had solid weeks at Colonial, and I know for a fact they all 3 feel really good about their game. As you see in Ben's opener, Dahmen and Kiz both gained less than 2 strokes putting last week, but still finished inside the Top 30. Now Kiz arrives on Bermuda greens that he loves...Alright, that's all I have time for this week. Let's hit another one!

1.

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's RBC:

1. Merritt 2. Streelman 3. DeChambeau 4. Stuard 5. Poston 6. RCB 7. Simpson 8. Lowry 9. List 10. Pan

2.

Historical

GIR Leaders at Harbour Town (min 8 rounds): 

1. Dufner 2. Kokrak 3. Haas 4. Kuchar 5. Piercy 6. Kisner 7. DJ 8. Horschel 9. Sabbatini 10. Donald

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bermuda grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Fowler 2. Day 3. English 4. Poston 5. Im 6. Lashley 7. Simpson 8. Horschel 9. CH3 10. DeChambeau

4.

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200 yards & under, average to difficult scoring, and firm greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Day 2. Kuchar 3. Simpson 4. Donald 5. DJ 6. Furyk 7. Kokrak 8. Watson 9. Noren 10. CH3/Bryson

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, average to difficult scoring, and short courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Kuchar 2. Streelman 3. Kokrak 4. DeChambeau 5. Furyk 6. Dufner 7. CH3 8. Watson 9. DJ 10. Stanley

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on Pete Dye courses:

 1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Kuchar 4. Grillo 5. Day 6. Rose 7. Kokrak 8. Knox 9. Rahm 10. Garcia

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Harbour Town, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. Rahm 3. McIIroy 4. JT 5. Matsuyama 6. Higgs 7. Schauffele 8. English 9. Simpson 10. Im

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. JT 2. Henley 3. Morikawa 4. McDowell 5. Hoffman 6. Hoge 7. Redman 8. Reavie 9. Gooch 10. Hovland

9.

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% scrambling (the 2 most important things this week) from the last calendar year, your top 10 is:

1. McIIroy 2. Matsuyama 3. Rahm 4. Simpson 5. Furyk 6. Schauffele 7. Knox 8. Morikawa 9. NeSmith 10. Fitzpatrick

10

.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Day 2. Watson 3. Koepka 4. Grace 5. Hovland 6. Reed 7. Simpson 8. Kisner 9. Garcia 10. DJ

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