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June 10, 2020

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In the meantime, continue reading for a peek at just some of this week's Chalk Bomb content for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. This comes to your inbox every Wednesday night before lineups lock in DFS and betting cards are finalized on Thursday. It's the greatest piece of last minute PGA Tour advice in the industry. Enjoy your sample and go

now!

Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's a pickem against someone $600 cheaper (& he's already priced at his cheapest DFS price...ever!)

  • Despite good course history, over the course of his last 6 rounds here he's LOST total strokes ball striking

  • This week he's projected for his highest ownership in almost 18 months!

  • Heading into the break he had lost total strokes in 10 of his last 16 events, & just over his last 10 events he's averaged losing 1.1 strokes to the field

  • Out of his last 24 events, he's lost strokes on approach shots in 17 of them

  • He's lost strokes off the tee in 9 of his last 12 events

  • His driving accuracy has been below field average for 14 of his last 15 events

  • Despite his cheapest DFS price ever, there are still 19 players cheaper than him that are ranked higher in projected DFS points

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 144th in the field in strokes gained ball striking

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 130th in the field in strokes gained on par 4's

  • Over his last 50 rounds, he's 135th in the 2 main approach shot buckets

At 13% calculated ownership (8th highest), Jordan Spieth, you're the Chalk Bomb! The reality is that yes, Jordan has great history here, but he's been #bad for going on 2 years now. It's certainly not impossible that he found something during the break, but if he shits the bed this week, he's going to go straight back to being 5% owned like he was most weeks leading up to The Players. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.I truly don't see much of a weather advantage this week in terms of waves or First Round Leader bets. Thursday & Friday look like smoking hott Texas twins glistening in the sun...Given the volatility of the week, I'll just stick to Outright winners only for the card. Historically, we haven't seen many triple digit winners at Colonial (even in the weak ass fields they've had) with the exception of 100/1 Boo Weekley. Now, you've got basically the field equivalent of the Northern Trust, so I don't anticipate a winner to come from longer than say 80 or 90/1. But...I don't have my big acorns in a wheelbarrow for nothing and I'm up 35 units on the year, so LFG! 

Through 18 Weeks: Spent $900 / Won $1250 / Up 35 unitsOutright WinnerRose (45/1)_$10, Kuchar (50/1)_$12.50, Lowry (60/1)_$7.50, Berger (70/1)_$5,Ancer (80/1)_$10, Poulter (125/1)_$5 

You can see the range I'm kind of hanging out in here, right? I do like some of the shorter odds plays like Xander, Rickie and Reed, but this isn't DB's Smedium Balls Betting Card. However, I'm still trying to win some units and stay on the side of history at Colonial. Poulter is my only 3 digit dickhole purely based on his experience here, his historically superb scrambling ability, and fairly decent accuracy tee to green. I love Ancer here. He's a Texas boy, played college golf in Texas, is extremely accurate off the tee and he grew up a lot at the President's Cup. He took on the Big Cat and looked like he belonged on that team from the first ball in the air. I don't think this field is too big for him (even though he's a tiny man). Given the half unit, I'm less than thrilled about Berger's win equity here, but he was playing great before the break and lest we forget only a few years ago when he was looking to be golf's next big, young superstar before having some injury issues. I love Lowry here for the all around tee to green game and especially his ability to scramble. He's excellent in windy conditions IF the weather changes on a dime, and he's an Open Championship with the chops to compete against the best. Kuch is self explanatory. This is a perfect Kuch course. Pounding that number for the back door Top 10 miser. And Rose...well...I don't feel incredible about it, but he's got win equity no matter what golf clubs he's signed with, and now that he's back with TaylorMade...maybe he's got the magic in his hands again.

1.

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Charles Schwab:

1. Watney 2. Na 3. Sabbatini 4. Palmer 5. Cauley 6. Pan 7. Horschel 8. Putnam 9. Finau 10. Hoffman

2.

Historical

GIR Leaders at Colonial (min 8 rounds): 

1.  Knox 2. Harman 3. Furyk 4. Putnam 5. Henry 6. Pan 7. Cauley 8. Dufner 9. Tway 10. Hoffman

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Hossler 2. Sneds 3. Na 4. Spieth 5. Fowler 6. Rodgers 7. Kisner 8. Simpson 9. Todd 10. Noren

4.

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways, and fast greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Spieth 3. Day 4. Folwer 5. DJ 6. Koepka 7. English 8. Simpson 9. Rose 10. Sneds

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, difficult scoring, and difficult to hit fairways your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Watson 4. Rose 5. Chambeau 6. Palmer 7. Hoffman 8. Leishman 9. Dahman 10. CH3

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on par 70 courses:

 1. DJ 2. Reavie 3. Koepka 4. Conners 5. McIIroy 6. Kokrak 7. Dahmen 8. Rose 9. Palmer 10. Simpson

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Colonial, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1.McIIroy 2. Reed 3. Higgs 4. Simpson 5. Im 6. Snedeker 7. English 8. Hatton 9. Scheffler 10. Dahmen

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 125-150, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Hoffman 2. Hoge 3. Taylor 4. McIIroy 5. Stuard 6. Pan 7. Walker 8. Dufner 9. Hovland 10. Mickelson

9.

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% scrambling (the 2 most important things this week) from the last year, your top is:

1. McIIroy! 2. Simpson 3. Knox 4. Rahm 5. Furyk 6. Schauffele 7. NeSmith 8. Fitzpatrick 9. Morikawa 10. Fowler

10

.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Horschel 2. RCB 3. Na 4. Kuchar 5. Niemann 6. Palmer 7. Burgoon 8. Walker 9. Berger 10. McNealy/Ancer

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