9K Email List #4

Who's Suckin It Up This Week 😡

June 24, 2020

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to the weekly Chalk Bomb email from the Tour Junkies and get a shot at free merch from the Augusta National Pro Shop in November! 

Here's a peek at just some of this week's Chalk Bomb content for the Travelers Championship (hangin on by a thread with COVID scares). This comes to your inbox every Wednesday night before lineups lock in DFS and betting cards are finalized on Thursday. It's the greatest piece of last minute PGA Tour advice in the industry. Enjoy your sample and go

now!

Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's a massive underdog in his head to head matchup

  • He's $1400 more expensive than last week and $1600 more expensive than 2 events ago

  • In his last 7 events, he's gained more strokes putting than any other 7 event stretch in his career

  • Despite good course history, he has just as many poor to middling results as good results

  • Bent grass is his worst putting surface

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on par 70's

  • He loses total strokes against his baseline on short courses

  • He's 100th in the field in the 2 main approach yardage buckets

  • He's 47th in the field in par 4 scoring

  • Over his last 50 rounds he's 120th in the field in Good Drives Gained

  • Over his last 50 rounds he's 89th in the field in birdies gained

  • Despite playing well the last 2 weeks, he's only 59th in the field in GIR's gained the last 8 rounds

At 14.1% calculated ownership (9th highest), Bubba Watson, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Welp, we had slight sweat on Sunday along with fifty-leven other people with 25 names in contention at Hilton Head, but we don't bet those 28/1 sissy bets around these parts. Alright...onward...I do see a slight edge with First Round Leader bets in the AM wave as conditions will be softer and the wind appears to pick up in the afternoon. During his presser this week, Spieth mentioned this place is much easier to attack in the mornings. So, I'm going to sprinkle in some FRLs in addition to the outrights.

Through 20 Weeks: Spent $1000 / Won $1600 / Up 60 unitsOutright WinnerFinau (50/1)_$5, Scheffler (75/1)_$10, Kokrak (100/1)_$5, Homa (125/1)_$5,Varner III (150/1)_$5First Round LeaderRodgers (90/1)_$5, Munoz (100/1)_$5, Homa (100/1)_$5, Higgs (125/1)_$5

All of the FRL bets are AM times. They're all guys that have shown solid form in the first 2 weeks coming back. They all hit the ball far and their birdie rates are above average. For the outright stable of studs, I went with all bombers that will take advantage of the short Par 4's and gettable Par 5's. Call my Finau play a pure gut decision this week. Kokrak and HV3 have grown on me since Monday. They weren't even on my radar for the podcast, but as I've dug deeper, I like the win equity they each have at triple digit prices. Homa is one of my favorite plays as his "stock" has dropped since he was a 50/1 bet pre covid. He's a PGA Tour winner on a course where the field is strong. And, he clearly was rusty at Colonial as he returned last week playing markedly better in key Strokes Gained categories. And now to address my full unit of love to Scheffler...I love his power and length here. He finished T55 at Colonial. Gained strokes ball striking as usual, lost strokes putting (as usual), but he lost over 3 strokes chipping. On average in his rookie season, he's usually between +.5 or -.5 in SG: ATG. It was a rusty week chipping for him. I don't see him doing a lot of chipping this week having so many short wedge shots into the greens. The greens aren't super small and easy to hit. One more fun fact...Bet365 has him at 75/1, yet datagolf.com projects his true odds based on their model to be 47/1. 

1.

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Travelers:

1. Reavie 2. JT 3. Day 4. Cantlay 5. Casey 6. Lee 7. Ancer 8. Taylor 9. Moore 10. Niemann

2.

Historical

GIR Leaders at River Highlands (min 8 rounds): 

1. Casey 2. Reavie 3. Moore 4. Garcia 5. Henry 6. Steele 7. Snedeker 8. Watson 9. McIIroy 10. Armour

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on poa/bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Reed 2. Simpson 3. Wallace 4. Rose 5. DeChambeau 6. Taylor 7. Cantlay 8. Horschel 9. Im 10. McIIroy

4.

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200 yards & under, fast greens, and long rough, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Spieth 2. Furyk 3. Casey 4. Day 5. ZJ 6. Reavie 7. Rodgers 8. DJ 9. Kisner 10. Cink

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses w/ long rough, easy to average fairways, and short courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Watson 2. Reavie 3. Casey 4. McIIroy 5. Moore 6. Hovland 7. Stanley 8. Grillo 9. JT 10. Garcia

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on Pete Dye courses:

 1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Casey 4. Grillo 5. Day 6. Rose 7. Cantlay 8. Kokrak 9. Rahm 10. Knox

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at River Highlands, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. JT 3. Rahm 4. McIIroy 5. Simpson 6. Schauffele 7. Dahmen 8. Finau 9. Im 10. Higgs

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Reavie 2. Leishman 3. Niemann 4. Grillo 5. Hoge 6. Kokrak 7. Duncan 8. Im 9. Simpson 10. Hovland

9.

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% total driving (the 2 most important things this week) from the last calendar year, your top 10 is:

1. Rahm 2. Casey 3. McIIroy 4. Conners 5. Scheffler 6. Kokrak 7. Hovland 8. NeSmith 9. Morikawa 10. Koepka

10

.

Top 10 cheapest guys on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Oosthuizen 2. Moore 3. Palmer 4. Horschel 5. Henley 6. Rodgers 7. Conners 8. Na 9. Grace 10. Lowry

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