The 2024 3M Open Chalk 💣

Thursday’s weather should be ideal before the heavy winds arrive for round two. Looking at the forecast, there’s no real wave advantage — but those who can post a number during the easy conditions on day one will be in a great position heading into the weekend.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Akshay Bhatia -121 ($9800) vs. Sahith Theegala +100 ($10,300)

Let’s start near the top of the board where the sharp overseas oddsmakers have Akshay Bhatia as a favorite in a four-round matchup over Sahith Theegala despite a $500 price difference in DraftKings DFS pricing.

Theegala is the only one with any prior experience at this event, but he hasn’t exactly enjoyed his previous visits to the Twin Cities. Sahith has yet to make a cut in three trips dating back to 2020.

Both are among the most popular plays in DFS this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Bhatia is behind only Tony Finau at 23% while Theegala is hovering around 17%

Tom Hoge -127 ($8800) vs. Keegan Bradley +105 ($9000)

Moving down to the $8k range, the bookies are fading the new Ryder Cup captain as Bradley is a big underdog to Tom Hoge even though Keegs is slightly more expensive.

Hoge has the experience advantage in both quantity and quality with five prior 3M starts featuring two top 25s and a T4 two years ago. Bradley on the other hand has just two starts at TPC Twin Cities under his belt where he has yet to finish better than T39.

The public appears to be tailing the bookies here as Hoge is trending around 15% ownership compared to Bradley at closer to 12%.

Austin Eckroat -118 ($8800) vs. Mackenzie Hughes -103 ($9000)

Lastly, Austin Eckroat is a favorite over Mackenzie Hughes in a four-round, head-to-head matchup despite a slight difference in DFS pricing.

Both players have two starts each at TPC Twin Cities with varying degrees of success at this venue. Eckroat bagged a T16 here on his debut before missing the cut last year while Hughes has played the weekend both times but has only a T30 and a T66 to show for it.

Both Eckroat and Hughes are flying under the radar this week according to our Nut Hut ownership projections as both are currently under 10% owned.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

The Open was a resounding success for the column, but I don’t want to give myself too much credit for fading Bryson when it seemed like just about every favorite pissed down their leg last week.

Seriously — Rory, Ludvig, Tommy, Tyrell, Tom Kim and others all laid a massive egg in the year’s final major, so it’s safe to say picking an accurate Chalk Bomb wasn’t all that hard.

But what to do now that none of those players are teeing it up this week? Like most golf fans, it seems like the pros themselves are checking out now that major championship season is over — at least until the big-money FedEx Cup Playoffs begin.

For now, it’s the 3M at TPC Twin Cities in scenic Blaine, MN where, despite the weak field, there’s no shortage of players meeting the Chalk Bomb eligibility criteria.

The Chalk Bomb is limited to popular picks in DFS — those with a projected ownership of 15% or higher according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, that leaves us with a total of nine players to choose from.

To single out the unlucky pick, we begin with the analysis by the nerds at Bet the Number who have identified some key data points and indicators specific to TPC Twin Cities to shine a light on which players may not be the best fit for this course.

With recent winning scores in the high teens and low twenties, it’s no secret that this track isn’t the toughest on the PGA TOUR schedule. Birdies will be required early and often to keep up with the scoring barrage that’s bound to take place unless Mother Nature throws some wind into the mix.

That said, gaining strokes on approach will be paramount this week as it’s hard to keep banging in 30-footers hole after hole. You need some gimmes every once in a while. According to BTN, TPC Twin Cities primarily features approaches from 100 - 175 yards out which is not a comfortable range for this week’s Chalk Bomb.

Over his last 24 rounds, this player ranks 136th in this week’s field in SG: Approach from that distance. For the record, there are only 140 men in the tournament this week…

To be fair to this guy, he does make up for his iron play once he’s on the green. BTN’s model has an emphasis on putting from 8 - 15 feet, and that’s a particular area of strength for this guy who is one of the better putters on TOUR. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in the field in SG: Putting from that range.

While the analytics can be interpreted as both good and bad, the betting odds are more conclusive. Looking at the sharp overseas oddsmakers, the Chalk Bomb is a heavy underdog in 72-hole matchup markets to similarly priced options such as Tony Finau and Akshay Bhatia — and you don’t have to look far to understand why.

This guy has plenty of experience at TPC Twin Cities, but the problem is… all of it is bad. He’s missed the cut in each of his three prior starts, losing over .8 strokes on the greens each year.

Quite frankly, that’s just not good enough to pay up for this guy who is the SECOND MOST expensive player in DraftKings DFS this week at $10,300.

So with a projected 17% ownership, I’m comfortable fading Sahith Theegala as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I wonder how many people actually use the pinned text feature on the Iphone? I don’t like it.

The Karate Kid probably got some kids tricked into doing chores for older people.

One full proof way to know if a place feels like home or not is your level of pooping comfort when you enter this home.

Most people haven’t jumped in weeks. Maybe even months.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the 3M Open. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!