3M Open

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

What a major season! We got Hideki in what was dangerously close to being one of the all-time great finishes. 50-year-old freakin Phil taking home the Wannamaker. Rahm* winning the US Open & taking his rightful place as world #1 (though that tee shot on #9 was 100% OB), and Collin 'Baby Tiger' Morikawa almost going wire to wire to establish himself as a future challenger to Rahm's pole position. We really have been spoiled the last couple of years with our major winners. You'd have to go all the way back to either the 2016 PGA (Jimmy Walker) or 2016 Masters (Willet) to find a name that hasn't been among the elite of the game for some time. We're probably overdue for a repeat of say, 2009, where you got Angel Cabrera, Lucas Glover, Stewart Cink, & YE Yang...gross. Anyways, even though we're done with Majors until 2022, we've got a fun run of golf coming up after this week, with the Olympics, WGC, & the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs to end this never-ending golf season! Unfortunately this week we do have a poopy field. A very top-heavy setup with 4 top 20 players, then a big drop off to Matt Wolff who is probably ranked a very generous 38th right now. BUT a lot of times these are my favorite weeks because you really have to dig deep & put the research in. So let's start digging!

We get a rare, fairly normal weather week. It does look like it gets a little gusty in the afternoons, but the sustained winds shouldn't be enough to really impact scoring all that much. The wind looks a little better in the mornings both days, but I don't see enough to make much if any of a wave advantage. 

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. A couple of interesting notes about TPC Twin Cities: 1. The field average for GIR hit % was the highest on tour here at a whopping 73.6% 2. The driving accuracy % was also well above tour average at 64% 3. Birdies outnumbered bogeys at a 2/1 clip 4. The average driving distance was around 290, which is higher than an average tour stop. But as you can see from the course fit, it's a no doubt accuracy course. The big takeaways are you have to absolutely pound the GIR's (several guys last year approached 90% GIR's hit), with a really high GIR % scrambling obviously becomes less relevant. Last year's winner Michael Thompson won while losing strokes off the tee & losing strokes around the green, but he excelled at strokes gained approach & lead the field in strokes gained putting. That should make it crystal clear that the name of the game is to find the fairway, stick it tight, & roll a bunch of 10-20 footers in.  

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

Reed vs. Finau

Reed -114 vs. Finau -103

Pretty big DFS value on Reed as he's $400 cheaper than Finau yet the H2H favorite. It's interesting because Finau played well last week in England, and also played well at the 3M last year. He was T-3 a year ago, & was 2nd in the field in strokes gained tee to green. The putter has definitely been ice-cold as he's lost at least 2.8 strokes putting in 3 out of his last 4, & you would assume he lost quite a few last week after averaging 31 putts per round. But the good news is that he actually hit MORE greens in reg than Morikawa, and last year he gained almost 10 strokes on approach at TPC Twin Cities. Reed on the other hand has been trending the other way. After a 5th at the Memorial, he's gone 19th, 25th, 32nd, MC, and his total strokes gained have gone from 12.2, 7.1, 5, 3.5, (-1.6). From the looks of his stats at the Open, he averaged an even worse 32 putts per round, & only got up & down 27% of the time, both very uncharacteristic of him. Right now it doesn't look like your going to get an ownership discount on him either, projected for about 17-18%. 

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MATCHUP 2

Lebioda vs. Fowler

 Lebioda -119 vs. Fowler +102

Fowler is priced a full 1k above Hank the Tank this week so there's juuuuuust a bit of DFS value on the lefty. As we sit here today he's projected to be the highest owned player in the field coming off of 3 top 10's in a row. I don't foresee a missed cut out of Hank, but there is definitely some risk in his stat profile. For one, he's lost strokes off the tee in all 3 of those top 10's. The 2nd largest concern is that the putter is so hot he's due for quite a bit of mean reversion. He's gained almost 24 strokes putting in just his last 5 events and has gained at least 1.3 strokes around the green his last 4 (which will have diminished value since the field hits an average of 3 out of every 4 greens). For Rickie, he started to show some signs of life starting at the PGA and keeps show little flashes of form, but there has been zero consistency. Looking at his stats it's kind of hard to not think there's an injury that he hasn't disclosed or is trying to play through. His HIGHEST driving distance in any one event not in Texas is 293 yards, with several events in the 280's. In 2019 he was averaging OVER 300, so to see that kind of drop-off in a young player is concerning. 

MATCHUP 3

DJ vs. Oosthuizen

DJ -114 vs. Oosthuizen -103

I've seen this line all over the place this week. DJ opened as the favorite, the sharps bid Louis up to a pickem/slight favorite, & now the line has settled to DJ as a very slight favorite. DJ had a pretty sneaky 8th place finish at the British, especially when it feels like I saw him hit like 3 shots all week. His ball-striking was solid but he found a couple 'spots of bother' in the English pot bunkers. For DJ it's mainly been his approach play that has sucked recently, gaining no more than 2.4 strokes in any one event since February. Both players have declined the Olympic invite which is probably the only reason they're playing this week, and neither has ever played here before. It does seem odd that a cheaper Louis is only projected at about 60% of what DJ's ownership is set at. He was so tantalizingly close to winning 3 majors in a row and has been a machine with both his irons & the putter, the 2 most important aspects this week. 

Other interesting lines:DJ -165 vs. Grillo +140Oost -123 vs. Finau +106Oost -257 vs. Wolff +214Reed -235 vs. Wolff +197Tringale -119 vs. Macintyre +102Garcia -121 vs. Watson +104Cink -114 vs. Vegas -102Gim -125 vs. List -106

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week of the 2021 season 

• Of all the relevant players in the field this week, he has the 2nd worst driving accuracy

• He's returned negative value against his salary expectations in 8 of his last 10 events

• He's been below field average in GIR's hit in 7 of his last 12 events

• He's lost strokes around the green in 7 of his last 8 events

• He's lost total strokes to the field in 6 of his last 9 events

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 125th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 97th in the field in bogeys avoided

• Over his last 24 rounds he's 144th in the field in fairways gained & 101st in good drives gained

• Bentgrass is his worst putting surface

• He's a MASSIVE H2H underdog to all the players around him in salary

At 17.6% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (6th highest) Matthew Wolff, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

What happened to water beds? Does anybody buy these anymore? I feel like I need one. Hell, for all I know DB already has one. He seems like a water bed guy.

Sometimes I wish my dog knew that I can make mistakes and be clumsy sometimes. Like in the middle of the night if I accidentally trip over him and bang him in the head, he would know that’s an accident and not me just banging him in the head on purpose. 

I think people on beaches with metal detectors are jerks and thief's to be honest. I mean, all they are looking for is jewelry or things of value that OBVIOUSLY someone is missing and would like to have back. They should have to turn that shit in to the authorities. Ticks me off. 

How do all those bugs get into the globe lights on a ceiling fan? Baffles me. 

 Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the 3M Open scoring extravaganza at TPC Twin Cities. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!