This Week's Tour Stop 3M Open @ TPC Twin Cities 

The Lone Asterisk In An Otherwise Great Run of Golf

Something that drives me absolutely crazy, as it should you, is that golf is still the only game in town as of today for DFS purposes, and the geniuses at all the big game provers slashed the contest sizes that are all filling up on MONDAY & TUESDAY. As much as I want to be bullish on the industry as a whole, it's these repeated under-sizings of the contest that is really frustrating as a fan & player....#MakeItBigger

Anyways, we've got a really great run of golf coming up after this week, with the WGC, PGA, then the playoffs starting in 2 weeks after that. Unfortunately this week we do have a poopy field, but a lot of times these are my favorite weeks because you really have to dig deep & put the research in. So lets start digging!

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. I swear somehow every single course that rewards accuracy over the 'average' PGA course we're going to knock out in the beginning of this restart. A couple of interesting notes about TPC Twin Cities: 1. The field average for GIR hit % was the highest on tour here at a whopping 74.2% 2. The driving accuracy % was also well above tour average at 66% 3. Birdies outnumbered bogeys at a 2/1 clip 4. The average driving distance was around 290, which means this is a grip it & rip it course. The big takeaways are you have to absolutely pound the GIR's (several guys last year approached 90% GIR's hit), with a really high GIR % scrambling obviously becomes less relevant. Last year exactly 1 player finished in the top 22 that lost strokes off the tee, and only 1 player in that top 22 lost strokes on approach shots. That should make it crystal clear, total driving & approach play is the name of the game this week.  

Leh Go!

If you run a business OR you work in marketing for a business big or small...hit up our friends at Tranter Grey for all your digital marketing, social media strategies and video production! They did

this video

for us (and more to come) & they're amazing! Visit

TranterGrey.com

now!

MATCHUP 1

Redman vs. Henley

Redman -140 vs. Henley +120

Clear cut DFS value on Redman this week as he's $500 cheaper than Russ but the -140 favorite. Doc struggled last week on a difficult course, but TPC Twin Cities should suit his style of play much better; on easy courses, he's 9th in the field in total strokes gained vs. 25th on all courses. Doc is basically what Lucus Glover has been for the better part of a decade, very good ball striker, and terrible around the greens. Since the restart he's gained at least 2.1 strokes on approach every event (though has been trending down for 4 straight), gained strokes off the tee in 3 of 5, lost strokes around the green in all 5 (though that should be limited with the high avg GIR% at the 3M), and lost strokes putting in 4 of 5. Russ is who I really want to talk about though. I was very sad to see his price come out so high at $9200, but I'm still playing him (& betting him) and I'll tell you why: since the Honda he's gained AT LEAST 6 strokes on approach shots in every event sans the RBC, he's gained strokes off the tee in 3 straight (& increased the total in 3 straight), he's been about break-even around the greens, & has actually lost strokes putting in 6 of 8 events in 2020. 2019 was largely a lost year for him, and no doubt he's gone from elite putter to very average/slightly below average putter, but he's #1 in the field in BOTH GIR's gained & opportunities gained the last 12 rounds. He did miss the cut here last year, but he hit 78%! of his greens in reg which is really hard to do. I absolutely love the + money you get in the betting markets on him. 

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Russ the love bus is now the -130 FAVORITE, monster line move in his favor in just 24 hours. Adds to my conviction on him. 

MATCHUP 2

Harry vs. Love Glove

Harry -125 vs. Love Glove +105

Once again the UGA boys have value on their side, Harry is $400 cheaper than Love Glove but the favorite in head to head markets. These should be two of the higher owned guys this week at attractive price points and relatively high floors. Harry has been really solid across the board since the re-start, gained strokes in almost every category most weeks. I've always thought of him as a ball striker, but he's really transformed his short game into one of the elite's on tour. Since the the Waste Management he's gained strokes both around the green and putting in every single event, ranking 3rd in the field in strokes gained short game his last 24 rounds. The Love Glove has been his usual ball-striking self gained strokes OTT & APP in every event except the Travelers. It is interesting to note that he's gained strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 events, and since the start of 2019 has transformed himself from one of the worst putters on tour, to tour average, which is all he needs to play really good golf. Glover has also played *most* of his best golf on easy courses that he can just ball strike to death, gaining almost a full shot per round on the field on easy courses. 

MATCHUP 3

Casey vs. Fleetwood

Casey -117 vs. Fleetwood -113

Lots of DFS value this week with yet again the cheaper guy (Casey) being the head to head favorite. Tommy Lad is going to be the ultimate wildcard having played zero competitive rounds since the 1st week of March. Always a DFS favorite for his ability to pound the GIR's, I find it interesting that he has exactly 1 top 10 on the PGA tour in the last calendar year, though in fairness he does love to beat up on the weaker Euro tour fields. I was hoping that a lot of boxscore checkers would see Casey's MC last week & pass on him, but it looks like he'll be popular again in this weak field. If it wasn't for an 8 on a par 3 he would have safely made the cut & at least been in the mix (still not sure how it happened, it looked like he chunked a chip into the water somehow). Anyways bent grass is far & away his best putting surface, & as you know, all it takes is for him to break even with the putter to have a good week. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.I don't see much of a weather advantage as of Wednesday afternoon. Thursday will see slightly cooler temps, very little wind and no rain. Friday looks a little warmer, no rain, and rather breezy, but the wind looks steady all day regardless of wave. I'm going to stick strictly to the outright market on the betting card this week because I want more players given the volatility of a week like this one. However, if one were to bet the first round leader market, I actually kind of like the afternoon wave slightly more on Thursday as the morning wave will see cooler temps first thing and that will make the course play slightly longer. 

Through 24 Weeks: Spent $1200 / Won $1600 / Up 40 unitsOutright WinnerBurns (45/1)_$10, Redman (50/1)_$5, Moore (55/1)_$5, Hoffman (70/1)_$5,Straka (80/1)_$5, Gooch (90/1)_$5, Stallings (90/1)_$5, Clark (100/1)_$5, Mitchell (110/1)_$5

Burns & Redman lead the way as young, aggressive birdie makers that arrive in good form. Burns gets a slight bump given his T7 here last year. Moore can absolutely sneak up and shock a lot of people with a victory here. We know this course rewards accuracy tee to green and a hot putter. Moore has improved week over week in the last few weeks, and the veteran can surely get hot. Hoffman is another veteran that has flashed a little form in the last couple of weeks, despite not really putting 4 rounds together just yet. Straka & Gooch are two very aggressive ball strikers that can feast on these Par 5's. Straka struggled over the weekend at The Memorial, but that was a different world. His ball striking and Par 5 scoring has been extremely tasty. Call Stallings a value bet for me. He's been pretty ok since the restart, doesn't get in a ton of trouble, but the 90/1 number for such a ball striking veteran in this field just seems too long. Clark is a bomber that can putt his dick off. That's a recipe for success here at Twin Cities if he can just get his irons and wedges to be average. He finished 5th here last year, so I'll sprinkle a half unit on him at 100/1. He's likely to finish T5 or better again or completely implode on his way to a weekend off. Finally, enter Keith Mitchell...a Georgia Bulldog that has a win on a similar track in PGA National, hits it a mile, scores in bunches when he's hot, and at triple digits...Sign. Me. Up! He played here last year and while not doing well, he at least knows the course a little. Last week on those slick bentgrass greens, he gained 4 strokes putting (he NEVER does that on bentgrass). Maybe that hot bentgrass putter can continue for 1 more week. 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's just barely a head to head favorite over someone that's $1200 cheaper than him

• This will easily be his highest price ever for a PGA tour event

• This is also projected to be his highest ownership ever for a PGA tour event

• So far in his career he has actually lost strokes to the field on easy scoring courses

• He's averaged -0.3 strokes putting on bent grass per round

• Since 2/2/2020 he's missed 5 of 8 cuts

• He's 42nd in the field in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds

• He's 85th in the field in Fairways gained the last 12 rounds

• He's 113th in the field in opps gained the last 12 rounds

• He's lost strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 events

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 3 of his last 5 events

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 2 of his last 4 events

At 17.5% actual FNGC LU generated (7th highest, though he's higher in several other places), EVR, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Pat is "on vacation" this week which means he can't do shit for TJ, so...DB here filling in. I'm not going to Pontificate, but I am going to tell you 3 things that annoy the hell out of me about Pat.

1. Pat feels like he has to have a shirt from every fucking golf course he plays. He mentioned this last week, but damn dude...I need a golf shirt or a hat like I need a punch in my taint. He just loves spending money (TJ money). I loved Haig Point in Hilton Head a couple of weeks ago, but I took home a cup from the bar. That's it. Pat wants a Haig Point Peter Millar shirt which makes for like his 9th striped blue shirt in his closet.

2. Pat bitches like nobody I've ever heard when he's on the golf course and not playing well. Like...if Jordan Spieth, Sergio, Bryson and Antonio Brown had a baby...it would be Pat playing poorly on the golf course.

3. As Pat has gotten older, his hearing has started to diminish. This was noticeable by me, Ben, and Pat's brother on the Hilton Head trip. He yelled all the time...in the car, in the house, in a restaurant, in close proximity, in the golf cart...like more than a dozen times over the weekend, the 3 of us would be like, "Pat...why are you yelling? We're right here."

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last years 3M:

1. Wolff 2. Hickok 3. Conners 4. Ortiz 5. Burns 6. Frittelli 7. Finau 8. Burgoon 9. Piercy 10. CH3

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Twin City (only have 4 rds of data obvi): 

1. Conners 2. Stefani 3. Finau 4. Wolff 5. List 6. Hossler 7. Piercy 8. Koepka 9. Burns 10. Ryder

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Putnam 2. Martin 3. English 4. Seiffert 5. Wagner 6. Roach 7. Casey 8. Werenski 9. Tway 10. NeSmith

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards,easy scoring, and bent greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. Werenski 3. Finau 4. Vegas 5. Wolff 6. Barnes 7. Fleetwood 8. Wise 9. Moore 10. Cambell

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, long rough, and soft greens courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1.DJ 2. Koepka 3. Casey 4. Martin 5. Glover 6. Grillo 7. Gomez 8. Stroud 9. Fleetwood 10. Watson

6.

 Your top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

 1. Henley 2. Todd 3. Redman 4. Grillo 5. Stanley 6. Burns 7. Dufner 8. Martin 9. Werenski 10. Harman

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Twin Cities, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Norlander 2. Clark 3. Casey 4. Seiffert 5. EVR 6. Hadley 7. Vegas 8. Stefani 9. Hoffman 10. Noren

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 200+ & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Ghim 2. Murray 3. Casey 4. Grillo 5. EVR 6. Hadley 7. Swafford 8. DJ 9. Hoge 10. Straka

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Henley 2. Garnett 3. Redman 4. Glover 5. Norlander 6. Gordon 7. List 8. Casey 9. Koepka 10. Moore

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Hoffman 2. Ortiz 3. Lewis 4. Harman 5. Gordon 6. Straka 7. Mitchell 8. Schenk 9. List 10. Schwab