The 2024 Wyndham Championship Chalk 💣

Tropical Storm Debbie has things wet and wild in North Carolina for this week’s action. Plenty of rain and high winds will play a big role in the opening couple of rounds, so expect a lot of variance on the leaderboard.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Si Woo Kim -122 ($10,000) vs. Shane Lowry -108 ($10,300)

Let’s start near the top of the board where the sharp overseas oddsmakers have Si Woo Kim as a big favorite over Shane Lowry despite a $300 discount in DFS for the Korean.

Both guys have plenty of experience at Sedgefield, but Si Woo has a much stronger record with four top-five finishes including a win in 2016. Lowry has plenty of made cuts, but outside a T7 in 2017 the Irishman has just one other top-25 finish in six trips.

Both are among the most popular plays in DFS this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Lowry is behind only Sungjae Im at 23.5% while Si Woo is hovering around 20%.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout -124 ($8700) vs. Aaron Rai +102 ($8800)

Moving down to the $8k range, the bookies are fading Aaron Rai in a 72-hole matchup against Christiaan Bezuidenhout even though Rai is slightly more expensive in DraftKings DFS.

The pair has five prior starts at the Wyndham between them, but neither has a particularly impressive record. Bez made the cut in all three of his past visits to Sedgefield but has never finished better than T37. Rai on the other hand has only managed a T71 and a MC in two trips.

The public seems to be going the opposite way of the books here as Rai is by far more popular in DFS with an ownership percentage of around 23% while Bez is a better under-the-radar play at 13%-owned.

Seamus Power -137 ($7200) vs. Will Zalatoris +107 ($7600)

Bringing up the rear in the $7k range is Seamus Power who is a heavy favorite in a head-to-head, 72-hole matchup with Will Zalatoris despite a $400 price difference in DFS.

Neither player lacks experience at Sedgefield, though Power’s five prior starts outnumber Zalatoris’ three. Willy Z has the better performances though with two top-30 efforts while Power has just one.

Both of these guys are dark horse picks this week with their ownership projections at or under 5% according to our Nut Hut data. Power is coming in at just over 5 %-owned while Zalatoris is right behind him at 3.9%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

It’s that time of year where every top player is counting their money and taking a load off before the final push for the (pre-LIV) biggest purse in golf. The FedEx Cup Playoffs are right around the corner, and at the end of the tunnel sits almost $20 million in cash.

But before the stars battle it out, the hundreds of PGA TOUR golfers must be whittled down to 70, and this week is the last chance for any playoff hopefuls to get inside the cutline.

As it has been for years, Sedgefield Country Club is the site of the play-in tournament known as the Wyndham Championship where the plebians of the PGA TOUR will battle it out for the chance to play next week. But with so few big names and so many desperate underdogs (not to mention a hurricane), how can we go about handicapping this week’s action?

As always, the Chalk Bomb is limited to popular picks in DFS — those with a projected ownership of 15% or higher according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord. This week, that leaves us with a total of eight players to choose from.

To narrow that down to one, let’s start with our friends at Bet the Number who have identified some key data points and indicators specific to Sedgefield that should give us an idea of who to fade this week.

The Wyndham has seen winning scores pushing 20-under the last several years, but the addition of some biblical weather this week throws the final score into question. What we do know is that there are many ways to get around this golf course — a look at recent winners that includes Lucas Glover, Tom Kim and Kevin Kisner is proof enough.

Put statistically speaking, there are some things a player needs to do well to have success here. Among those is accuracy out of Bermuda rough. The thick stuff around Sedgefield is notoriously lush, and the ability to save par from the cabbage will be important this week.

That’s the first flaw we’ll spotlight for this week’s Chalk Bomb. Over his last 36 rounds on courses featuring Bermuda rough, this player ranks 125th in the field this week in SG: APP from the thick stuff. In fact, he’s outside the top 100 in SG: APP from everywhere.

While that alone is tough to overlook, BTN has identified the 110 to 190-yard range of approaches as especially important at Sedgefield, and that’s where this guy struggles the most. Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks nearly DFL in the field in SG: APP from that range coming in at 145th.

That’s not to say this player has nothing going for him — he’s a popular pick this week for a reason. Among the entire field of 150+, nobody has more total strokes gained at Sedgefield over the last few years than him.

But I’ll leave you with a parting thought from the guys who know this stuff better than anyone… the bookies.

Despite his third-highest DFS price at $10,200, this guy is a pretty big underdog in head-to-head markets to players you can get at a cheaper number. Both Brian Harman and Si Woo Kim are better than -120 favorites over this player.

So with all that plus a projected ownership of over 15%, I need no excuse to fade the University of Florida and Billy Horschel as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

One of the worst people in the world is someone who doesn’t respect the zipper merge concept in a drive-thru line.

Olive Oil sure is proud of its virginity. I mean what if some people want an olive oil with more experience? You know, a learn-ed oil.

As an identical twin, I often wonder the fears and pressures a parent of twins has when they bring them home at birth. I mean damn you switch those things by accident and it will never be the same. Just an incredible burden off the jump.

Isn’t a hand dryer in a bathroom basically just an air faucet?

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the Wyndham Championship. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!