The 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Chalk 💣

It’s gonna be hotter than DB’s Big Balls down in Memphis, so pack an extra pair of shorts to avoid the swamp if you know what I mean. Other than the heat, the conditions should be good with the exception of some higher gusts on Friday morning, so there might just be a slight edge to the AM/PM wave.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Si Woo Kim -130 ($7200) vs. Wyndham Clark +100 ($7900)

Let’s begin with a pair of surprisingly big names for the $7k range where the overseas oddsmakers favor Si Woo Kim in a 72-hole head-to-head matchup over Wyndham Clark even though the latter is $700 more expensive in DraftKings DFS.

Both guys have a pair of prior starts at this course under their belts, but neither did much with those appearances. Kim’s best finish is a T16 last year while Clark has never finished better than a T28

Neither guy is an overly popular play in DFS this week, but Wyndham is a bit more chalky. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Clark is around 10%-owned while Si Woo is closer to 7%.

Jordan Spieth -120 ($7700) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick -101 ($7800)

Staying in the $7k range, Jordan Spieth is favored over Matt Fitzpatrick in a four-round matchup despite the slight DFS price edge for the Englishman.

Both have exactly two prior starts and a top-6 finish to boot, (Jordan’s coming last year and Fitz’s the year before.)

The public isn’t too interested in taking either in DFS though as Fitz is projected around just 5% ownership compared to 7% for Spieth.

Keegan Bradley -146 ($7000) vs. Max Homa +116 ($7500)

Lastly, let’s look at Keegan Bradley who the sharp oddsmakers have as a HEAVY favorite over Max Homa despite a $500 discount on the next Ryder Cup captain.

The odds might surprise you considering each player’s record at TPC Southwind. Across four total starts between them, Homa has the best finish by far with a T6 last year. Keegan’s best effort in Memphis also came in 2023, but it was a T43.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, both players are flying under the radar this week in DFS as they are each around 6-7%-owned. With that in mind, it might be worth tailing the sharps here with Bradley if you’re deciding between the two.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We’ve only got a few of these left in 2024, so why not go out with a bang?

No, I’m not picking Scottie, although part of me wants to considering I haven’t picked him as a Chalk Bomb once this season despite him always being eligible from an ownership perspective. (Probably for the best given the season he’s having…)

But we’ve got an elevated purse with a field of 70 of the best golfers on the planet, so let’s go out on a real limb here shall we?

As a reminder, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The whole idea is to pick a popular player who may not be worth the chalk and might just provide a good opportunity for a pivot play to a more sensible option.

Looking at this week’s venue, TPC Southwind is one of the more challenging layouts on the PGA TOUR. The exacting design and sweltering conditions make for a fitting challenge in the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The experts at Bet the Number have identified a few key statistics that should help us decide who to bet and who to fade. The first of which is Driving Accuracy. TPC Southwind is far from a bomber’s paradise, and as such, finding the fairway is just as important as hitting it a long way.

This doesn’t favor this week’s Chalk Bomb as he enters the week ranked 56th in the field in Driving Accuracy % over his last 24 rounds. It’s a bit of a surprise for this player who has long been one of the best total drivers in the game, but the recent data shows he’s not been the same player off the tee as of late.

It’s an equally bleak picture for this guy closer to the hole. BTN has crunched the numbers and found that putting from the 8’-15’ range is especially important at TPC Southwind, and that’s an area of particular concern for this player.

Over his last 24 rounds, the Chalk Bomb ranks 66th out of 70 in the field this week in strokes-gained putting from that range. Overall, this guy is a strong putter. But if that range is as critical as we think, it could cost him a few strokes over the weekend.

Now that’s not to say I expect this guy to play poorly this week. That would actually come as a surprise given his recent record here — he finished runner-up last year for crying out loud. But it’s all about the value compared to the guys around him going in the high $9k / low $10k price range on DraftKings.

At cost, I’m just not as sold on this guy as someone like Collin Morikawa or Ludvig Aberg who are actually being picked in fewer lineups this week.

So with a projected ownership of 15.8% at a $9700 price on DraftKings, I’m sticking my neck out and fading Patrick Cantlay as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

Olympic fast walking competition seems equivalent to a loudest whispering competition.

Has anyone ever seen an empty bottle of Tabasco Sauce?

It’s disappointing to me that we will never really know what it smells like under any particular body of water. Except a nasty body of water. I’m talking beautiful bodies of water.

I have a hard time believing that anti-bacterial hand soap truly removes 99.9% of all bacteria on my hands.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!