The 2024 BMW Championship Chalk 💣

With clear skies and mostly calm breezes throughout the early rounds, the only real challenge the golfers will have to overcome in Denver is the all-important elevation. The current forecast shows some potential for rain late Thursday which may soften things up ahead of Friday morning.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Collin Morikawa -116 ($10,100) vs. Rory McIlroy -104 ($10,800)

We start with a rare mismatch at the very top of the odds sheet where the sharp overseas books have Collin Morikawa favored over Rory McIlroy in a 72-hole matchup despite the $700 price difference in DraftKings DFS.

No one in this field was playing PGA TOUR golf the last time the circuit visited Castle Pines in 2006, so there’s no real course history edge to be had here. That said, McIlroy does lead the field in strokes gained over his last 12 rounds on high-elevation courses.

Both of these stars will be in plenty of lineups this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Rory and Collin are each expected to be owned in roughly 16% of lineups.

Tommy Fleetwood -123 ($9,600) vs. Ludvig Aberg -107 ($10,000)

Staying near the top of the board, Tommy Fleetwood is favored over Ludvig Aberg in a four-round matchup even though the Swede is $400 more expensive in DFS.

Again, no course history to take into account here, but for what it’s worth, Tommy is coming into this week in better form following a runner-up at the Olympics and a T22 at last week’s playoff event.

These Ryder Cup teammates are neck-and-neck in terms of projected ownership this week with our models projecting around 14% for Aberg and 13% for Tommy Lad.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout -124 ($8000) vs. Akshay Bhatia -106 ($8400)

Lastly, let’s look down in the $8k range where the sharp oddsmakers have Bez as a big favorite over Bhatia despite a price discrepancy on DraftKings DFS.

This goes against the public perception as our Nut Hut ownership projections have Akshay outpacing Bez by a wide margin. Bhatia is one of the more popular picks at around 12%-owned while Bez is one of the least-owned at around 7%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

This is it… we’ve arrived at the final Chalk Bomb of the 2024 PGA TOUR season.

There may or may not be a ‘Year in Review’ email coming next week — I’d love to look back and see just how well yours truly picked em’ this year with a deep dive on how the Chalk Bomb picks fared each week, so perhaps we’ll do that next time.

But before we reminisce, we have one final shot at glory with a ballsy fade at the BMW Championship. Patrick Cantlay burned us with a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude, so we need a W to end the year on a high.

As a reminder, the Chalk Bomb is limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The whole idea is to pick a popular player who may not be worth the chalk, and we have no shortage of names to choose from in this stacked field. A whopping 11 players meet our eligibility requirements this week, even with almost 50% of lineups containing either Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele (and no, I’m not fading either of them).

This week’s event might just be the toughest handicap we’ve seen all year. A new venue combined with the rare treat of golf at high elevation means we just don’t know exactly what to expect when these guys tee it up at Castle Pines on Thursday.

But if there’s anyone that can help, it’s our friends at Bet the Number who have scouted this track as much as anyone and have produced a few key notes and numbers to help us make our plays this week.

The elevation more or less cancels out the absurd length of this golf course which at over 8,000 yards is the longest in PGA TOUR history. With the ball flying for everyone, Castle Pines places a heightened emphasis on accuracy off the tee — something that this week’s Chalk Bomb isn’t exactly known for.

While a bomber to be sure, this player ranks second-to-last in this week’s field in Driving Accuracy % over his last 40 rounds hitting only 53% of fairways over that stretch.

It’s hard to make a living playing out of the rough, so perhaps that’s why his approach numbers leave a lot to be desired as well. Over the same 40-round period, this player ranks bottom-ten in the field in SG: Approach. BTN has also found that Castle Pines requires an above-average number of shots from 140-210 yards, and this player ranks 30th in the field in SG: Approach from that distance.

Lastly, this player has simply been boom or bust all season, and I think it’s more likely to be the latter at Castle Pines. While this week’s Chalk Bomb does have seven top-10 finishes this season, he has the same number of finishes outside the top 45 including five missed cuts.

Coming in with a DFS price of $9200, there are just better options at the top of the board than this player, and I can’t justify rostering him when approximately 17% of lineups will be doing so.

So who has the honor of being the final Chalk Bomb of 2024?

Without further ado, I present… Wyndham Clark!

We have a serious waving back problem in this country right now. No one f’in waves back at you these days. I’m just trying to make a nice gesture with a simple wave but we got too many people out there who think they have zero obligation to wave back. It’s a problem and somebody needs to stand up to the anti-wave assholes.

Oddly enough the terrible break dancer (Raygun) at the Olympics is the most famous break dancer of our time.

I can’t stand whoever invented CAPTCHA. I mean fuck me. I clicked on all the damn squares with the traffic light in it.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the BMW Championship. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!